地球气温升高两度将会变得很可怕 下面告诉你气温升高四度的地球是什么样的
DAVID WALLACE-WELLS: Well, I think when we look outside our windows every day,
大卫·华莱士-威尔斯:每天当我们看向窗外
we see a world that is basically stable,
我们看到的是一个基本稳定的世界
and even if we hear a lot about extreme weather,
即使我们听说了很多关于极端天气的消息
see horrible news of wildfires and droughts and heat waves
看到关于野火 干旱 热浪
that kill people all around the world,
在世界范围内致人死亡的可怕新闻
we still reorient our emotional expectations
我们依然在调整我们对
for what the world will be like in our own lives.
我们所生活的世界的样貌的情感期望
And most of our lives have not been yet
我们的大部分生活还没有
all that dramatically disturbed by climate change.
受到气候变化的显著影响
But in the decades ahead, I think they will be.
但未来几十年 我们的生活很可能会受影响
There’s basically no life on Earth that will be untouched
未来几十年 在气候变化的影响下
by the force of climate in the decades ahead,
地球上几乎生命能独善其身
and in most cases, that means
大多数情况下 气候变暖意味着
deformed, damaged, transformed.
生命会畸形 受伤 变形
I think most scientists would say that
大多数科学家认为
the best case scenario is 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.
最好的情况是变暖1.5摄氏度
But personally, I think it’ll be practically impossible for us
但我个人认为 若没有所谓的负排放技术
to stay below two degrees
气温稳定升高2度
without what’s called negative emissions technology,
对我们来说几乎是不可能的
which is fanciful tech that has been tested and is successful at a lab scale,
负排放是一项经过测试并在实验室范围内取得成功的新技术
but needs to be deployed at global scale
但需要在全球范围内部署
to make much of a difference.
才能发挥作用
The UN says that to have any chance of staying below two degrees,
联合国称 要想温度稳定升高两度成为可能
we need massive use of this technology,
我们需要大量应用这种技术
which we don’t even know enough to trust.
然而我们对其了解还太少
So for me, I orient my best case scenario at two degrees.
因此 我认为气温上升两度是最好的情况
And unfortunately, that’s a level of warming that most scientists describe
不幸的是大多数科学家认为 这种程度的升温
as the threshold of a catastrophe.
是一场灾难的开始
Many island nations of the world describe it as genocide.
世界上许多岛国称这会导致种族灭绝
That’s how vulnerable they are to especially sea level rise at two degrees.
升温两度导致海平面上涨 而他们极易受此影响
But the impacts wouldn’t just affect the island nations of the world.
但受影响的不只有岛屿国家
Many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East
南亚和中东的许多大城市
would be lethally hot in summer at two degrees,
两度的升温会导致其夏季高温难耐
which could happen as soon as 2050.
这一切很快将在2050年发生
These are cities like Calcutta
例如加尔各答这样的
5, 10, 12 million people.
有500万 100万 甚至1200万人口的城市
You wouldn’t be able to go outside or certainly work outside
你外出或是在外工作
without incurring a lethal risk.
将面临致命的风险
And that could happen, again, just by 2050,
再次强调 这种情况可能就在2050年发生
which is one reason why the UN expects that we could have
所以联合国预计到2050年
200 million climate refugees by that same date, 2050.
全球将有两亿气候难民
200 million.
两亿啊
They think it’s possible that we get as many as one billion,
他们认为气候难民有可能多达十亿
which is as many people as live today in North and South America, combined.
也就是今天生活在南北美洲的人口总和
I don’t think those numbers are realistic.
我觉得这个数字不现实
I think they’re too high.
太高了
But even if we get 100 million or 150 million climate refugees,
但即使有1亿或1.5亿气候难民也够我们喝一壶的了
it’s important to remember that the Syrian refugee crisis,
要知道当时叙利亚难民危机
which totally destabilized European politics,
完全破坏了欧洲的政治稳定
led in its way to Brexit,
导致了英国脱欧
and has transformed our politics globally through the way it’s affected Europe,
并通过其对欧洲的影响改变了全球政治
was the result of just one million Syrian refugees coming to the continent.
这仅是一百万叙利亚难民来到欧洲大陆的结果
We’re talking about a refugee crisis
而我们说的气候难民危机的规模
that is almost certain to be 100 times as large,
几乎是叙利亚难民的100倍
and it comes at a time when most nations of the world
而且 目前世界上大多数国家
are retreating from our commitments to one another,
正背弃对彼此的承诺
retreating from our organizations and alliances,
从共同的组织和联盟中退出
retreating from the UN, retreating from the EU,
退出联合国 退出欧盟
and embracing xenophobia and nativism and nationalism.
并抱有仇外心理 本土主义和民族主义
That’s especially concerning when you think about what’s ahead,
在未来 这些情况尤其令人担忧
because there are going to be many more people
因为在未来的几十年里
in much more desperate need in the decades ahead.
会有更多人急需帮助
And if we don’t welcome them,
如果我们不欢迎他们
we’ll be committing real moral crimes
我们将真的成为道德罪犯
that from the advantage of today seem unconscionable,
从今天的情况来看 那是不合乎情理的
but which may become more normal,
但随着我们迈向新世界
as we move forward into this new transformed world.
这种情况可能成为常态
When we talk about worst case scenarios,
当我们讨论最坏的情况时
there are a couple of different factors at play.
主要受两个因素影响
One is what humans do.
一个是人类行为
This is the most important factor.
这是最重要的因素
Will we change course?
我们会做出改变吗?
Will we continue to burn coal?
我们会继续燃烧煤炭吗?
Will we continue to produce fossil fuel emissions?
我们会继续产生化石燃料排放吗?
The UN says that the track we’re on now, the trajectory we’re on now
联合国称 以我们现在的方式
is likely to take us to about 4.3 degrees Celsius of warming
如果我们不做出改变 在本世纪末
by the end of the century if we don’t change course.
很可能使气温升高约4.3摄氏度
4.3 degrees would mean $600 trillion in global climate damages.
4.3度带来的全球气候灾害将产生600万亿美元的损失
That’s double all the wealth that exists in the world today.
那是当今全世界财富总和的两倍
It would mean parts of the world could be hit
这将意味着世界部分地区
by six climate driven natural disasters at once.
可能同时遭受六场气候变化导致的自然灾害
It would mean more than double the warfare that we see today.
这意味着战乱次数将是今天的两倍
And the impacts would be in our economic activity.
其影响也将体现在我们的经济活动中
It would be in flooding and the refugee crisis.
还会出现洪水和难民危机
There are so many impacts that we have not really been able to think clearly about,
还有很多目前难以明确的影响
because all of us are so reluctant to consider these horrifying outcomes.
因为我们所有人都不愿去考虑这些可怕的结果
But the fact that they are horrifying should not make us turn away.
但我们不应该回避这些恐怖的真相
It should make us focus on them more intently.
我们应该更关注气候变化
We all have all of these psychological reflexes
我们所有人心里都会想回避
that make us reluctant to consider horrible possibilities.
这些令人恐惧的可能
And for that reason, it’s more important for us to take seriously the science,
正因如此 我们更应该认真对待科学
because we need to fight against those impulses to do better planning,
因为我们需要对抗逃避的冲动 来做出更好的计划
to take more aggressive action than we would
采取比故步自封时
if we allowed ourselves to slip back into complacency.
更为积极的行动
But there are cases that are worse than 4.3 degrees.
但是有些情况比升温4.3度还要糟糕
There are what are called feedback loops in the climate system
在气候系统中存在所谓的“反馈回路”
that could conceivably accelerate warming
这可能使气候变暖速度加快
beyond what human action does.
超出人类活动的影响
So there is what’s called the albedo effect,
有一个词叫“反照率效应”
which is a little complicated to explain.
这解释起来有点复杂
But sunlight is reflected back into outer space by any surface that’s white;
也就是阳光会被白色的表面反射回外太空
that’s why when you wear a white shirt, you’re cooler than if you wear a black shirt in the summer.
所以夏天在太阳下 穿白衬衫会比穿黑衬衫更凉爽
The less arctic ice there is, the less reflective white ice there is at the top of the planet.
北极的冰越少 地球顶部反光的白冰就越少
That means more sunlight is being absorbed,
这意味着更多的阳光被吸收
which means that more warming would take place.
继而引发气候持续变暖
So as arctic ice melts,
因此随着北极冰层融化
the planet’s ability to reflect solar energy back into space would diminish,
地球将太阳能反射回太空的能力就会减弱
and warming would accelerate.
气候变暖将会加速
There is frozen in the Arctic permafrost a lot of methane,
北极永久冻土层中有大量的甲烷
or I should say a lot of carbon,
或者可以说是大量的碳
which could be released into the atmosphere as methane if that permafrost melts.
永久冻土如果融化 就会以甲烷的形式释放到大气中
Methane is, depending on how you count,
不管你怎么算
at least 30 and perhaps 80 times as powerful a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide.
甲烷的温室气体排放量至少是二氧化碳的30倍甚至80倍
And there is enough carbon in that permafrost
永久冻土层中的碳含量
to double the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that we have today.
足以使目前的大气碳浓度翻倍
If that were released, it could accelerate warming by a couple of degrees all on its own.
如果这些碳被释放 可以使气候加速变暖几度
There are many more feedback loops like this.
“反照率效应”这样的例子还有很多
Just this past week there was a study about cloud formation.
上周就有一项关于云层形成的研究
If we get to about 1,200 parts per million of carbon,
如果未来大气中的碳含量达到0.12%
which is much higher than we are today at about 410,
比现在0.041%左右的碳含量要高得多
but it’s conceivable early next century,
可以想象到下个世纪初
we would completely disrupt the planet system for cloud formation.
这将会完全扰乱地球的云层形成系统
And that impact alone, scientists say in this study,
科学家们在这项研究中说 仅这一种影响
would add 8 degrees Celsius of warming to the system.
就会给地球带来8摄氏度的增温
So we’d probably be at already 4 and 1/2 or 5 degrees by then,
所以到那时气温可能已经升高了4.5度或5度
and we could immediately be brought to 12 and a half or 13 degrees Celsius.
加上这种情况 那时气温可能急增12.5或13摄氏度
And that really would make much of the planet literally uninhabitable,
这确实会使地球上的很多地方不适合居住
not just the equatorial band,
不仅仅是赤道带
not just the tropics,
不仅仅是热带地区
but there would be places in the mid latitudes that would just be too hot to live.
中纬度地区也会有一些地方因太热而无法居住
And we have not really begun to think about those possibilities.
而我们还没有真正开始思考这些可能性
This is the world that we’re entering into now, at just 1.1 degrees,
现在的世界只有1.1度的升温
but the whole range of possibilities stretches before us,
但所有的可能都近在眼前
and even the quite optimistic outcomes are horrifying.
甚至那些相当乐观的结果也令人恐惧
Two degrees is genocide, the island nations of the world say.
全世界的岛国都认为气温上升两度会带来种族灭绝
Four degrees is at least twice as bad,
升温四度的结果至少是原来的两倍
depending on how you count.
这要看你怎么算了
And there are possibilities north of 4 degrees, which are even scarier,
北极升温4度带来的可能性后果更可怕
because it would mean that the climate system had escaped human control.
因为这意味着气候系统已经脱离人类的控制

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