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  • 2021-10-17为什么热泵是制冷的未来You’re looking at a map of places that needed indoor cooling in 2019.屏幕所示地图是2019年需要室内制冷的地区 The redder an area is, the more often temperatures were hot enough区域颜色越红 高温天气就越频繁 that people needed some kind of cooling to be comfortable indoors.人们就越需要某种制冷措施 以保证室内舒适 The study also charted this into the future.此项研究同样描绘了未来趋势 When you zoom in, you can see放大地图 就可以看到 how many places that haven’t needed to cool their buildings, will need to.有多少现在不需要但将来需要室内制冷的地区 Like here, in Western Europe— by 2040,比如这里 2040的西欧 and by 2070— Northern China, and Japan,2070年的中国北部 日本 and in the Pacific Northwest of the US以及美国太平洋西北地区 where that change is already underway.这种变化已经开始了 “Seattle is the least air conditioned metro area in the US.”“西雅图是美国空调最少的大都市” “Most people in this area do not have air conditioning.”“这里很多人都还没用上空调” “We tried to get one, buy one, and they’re all …” “我们也曾试着装一台 买一台 但是都……” “Sold out of AC units.”“空调都卖完了” “Dozens of customers lining up at this hardware store, all leave empty handed.”“几十个顾客在空调店门口排起长队 但都空手而归” The world is on the brink of a massive boom in demand for air conditioning.全球的空调需求即将呈大规模增长 The number of installed AC units is expected to skyrocket,预计到2050年 已安装的空调数量 from 2 billion today, to almost 6 billion by 2050.将从如今的20亿台飙升至将近60亿台 More air conditioning means more consumption of electricity,空调数量增加意味着电力消耗增加 and more emissions that warm the planet.温室气体排放量增加 But all of this comes with a weird twist.但这些也带来了大转机 This increased need to cool our homes might be an unexpected opportunity 家庭制冷需求增加或许是个意外机会 to fix an even bigger problem.能解决一个更大的问题 Fixing the way we heat them with a revolutionary device called a heat pump.用一种叫热泵的革命性装置来改变取暖方式 The basic mechanics of air conditioning haven’t changed much since it was invented a century ago.自一个世纪前空调问世以来 其基本工作原理并没有多大变化 A fluid called a refrigerant absorbs heat from inside the home.一种叫做制冷剂的液体从室内吸收热量 That heat is moved and released outside the home,所吸收的热量会被转移并释放到室外 and a fan blows out the newly cold air.内置风扇吹出新制的冷空气 And it all runs on electricity.这个过程都是靠电力运作的 That’s also what heat pumps do, too这也是热泵的工作原理 — with more or less the exact same technology.所用技术大致相同 But they can also do it in reverse:但是热泵能反向工作 Taking heat from the air outside, and moving it inside.从户外空气中吸收热量 并转移到室内 Heat pumps suffer from one of the worst names of all time.热泵真是有史以来最糟糕的名字之一 A heat pump not only heats a home, but it also cools one.热泵不仅能用于家庭取暖 还能用于家庭制冷 That’s Michael Thomas, he runs the energy research group Carbon Switch.这是Michael Thomas 他管理着能源研究小组Carbon Switch I can actually show you my ductless heat pump right here.实际上我现在就能给你看看我的无管热泵 That is a heat pump working its magic on this 95 degree day here in Colorado.这就是热泵 在科罗拉多州95华氏度的天气里发挥着它的魔力 In addition to “air source” heat pumps, that transfer heat from the outside air,除了有从户外空气中转移热量的“空气源”热泵 there are “ground source” heat pumps, that transfer heat between a home and the earth several feet underground.还有在住宅和地下几英尺的土地间转移热量的“地源”热泵 And “water source” heat pumps, which transfer heat between homes and nearby bodies of water.以及在住宅和附近水域间转移热量的“水源”热泵 Heat pumps aren’t brand new technology.热泵并不是全新的技术 You may already have one, depending on where in the world you live.你可能已经有了一个 这取决于你住在哪 But the real opportunity with heat pumps isn’t changing how we cool our homes.但热泵带来的真正机会并不是改变家庭制冷方式 You can sort of imagine a traditional furnace, or a boiler,你可以想象一下传统的炉子或锅炉 like a Zippo under a pot of water in your basement,就像你家地下室有一锅水 下面有个打火机 really inefficiently burning gas, or fuel oil, or propane,通过低效地燃烧天然气 燃油 或丙烷 and warming that water up,来将水加热 and sending it throughout your house and pipes,再把热水输送到屋内的管道中 or going over a fan that’s then blowing through ducts in your house.或者用风扇将热量通过管子吹进室内 In the US, almost two thirds of homes are heated this way:在美国 几乎有三分之二的家庭通过这种方式取暖 burning fossil fuels right inside our homes.即在室内燃烧化石燃料 Residential, public, and commercial buildings make up almost a third of global CO2 emissions.住宅 公共及商业建筑产生的二氧化碳几乎占全球总排量的三分之一 And heating specifically is responsible for 45% of those building emissions worldwide.尤其是供暖产生的排放量占到建筑总排量的45% The impact of cooling is relatively small.制冷在这方面的影响相对较小 But, of course, that’s growing.当然 这种影响在逐渐增长 And that’s the opportunity.而这就是机遇 If, instead of traditional ACs,如果人们不再购买传统的空调 people buy electric machines that both heat and cool,而是购买兼具取暖和制冷的电器 the need for fossil-fuel heating will go way down.那使用化石燃料取暖的需求将会大幅下降 Heat pumps are one of the most important climate solutions that we have.热泵是我们最重要的气候问题解决方案之一 This map shows the regions where buildings need to be cooled 此地图所显示的是夏天需要室内制冷 during some parts of the year and heated during others.冬天需要室内供暖的区域 This is the market for heat pumps.这就是热泵的市场 It covers a third of the world population.覆盖了全球三分之一的人口 What gets energy experts particularly excited about heat pumps, 能源专家特别感兴趣是 is how they reduce what they call “locked-in emissions”:热泵如何减少所谓的“锁定排放” all of the future carbon emissions that are caused by decisions made today.即现今的决策所导致的未来总的碳排放 The natural gas furnace that my parents installed when I was growing up我父母在我小时候安装的天然气炉 is still kicking today.现在还在用着 So you’re making a decision所以你现在所做出的决定 that’s going to impact climate for 20 or 30 years.对气候的影响将长达二三十年 One of the obstacles here is that这里有个阻碍是 fossil-fuel heating is often subsidized by the government,化石燃料供暖通常由政府补贴 while heat pumps can cost thousands of dollars.而安装热泵得花上数千美元 So heat pumps represent a particular kind of climate challenge:所以热泵也带来了特殊的气候挑战 they rely on millions of individual homeowners,数百万个体房主每一位 each making a specific, expensive choice.都要为它们做出具体且昂贵的选择 But that can change.但这是可以改变的 The real solution to this problem is going to be policy change.解决这个问题的真正方法是改变政策 We need to massively increase the production of heat pumps in this country,我们需要大规模增加国内的热泵产量 which is going to be industrial policy;这是产业政策 rebates and incentives, which is going to be budget reconciliation policy;还有折扣和激励的预算调节政策 We need natural gas to be properly priced考虑到天然气对社会的负面影响 for the negative impact that it has on society.我们需要对其合理定价 Heat pumps alone won’t solve the climate crisis.单靠热泵并不能解决气候危机 While they can extract warmth from the air when it’s freezing outside,虽然它可以在天气寒冷时从空气中吸取热量 many models work less efficiently in subzero temperatures,但许多机器在零下温度时工作效率较低 where traditional furnaces might still be needed as backup.这就可能仍需要将传统锅炉作为备用 And until our electric grids are decarbonized,而在电网实现脱碳之前 heat pumps will still run on electricity generated by fossil fuels.热泵的运行仍需要靠化石燃料发电 Overall though, heat pumps present us with a rare opportunity:不过总的来说 热泵给我们提供了一个难得的机会 to change something harmful and long-lasting about the way we live.以改变我们生活方式中长期存在的有害方面 And they show that the big, collective changes热泵的存在也说明 为了应对气候变化 we’ll have to make to fight climate change,我们必须做出重大集体变革 won’t all be massive infrastructure projects.而不只是大型基础设施项目 Some of them will be right in our homes.其中有些就发生在我们家里 We have it in our minds that the solution to the climate crisis is,我们认为气候危机的解决方案是 build a lot of solar farms, build a lot of wind farms,建设大量的太阳能和风力发电场 drive electric vehicles.驾驶电动汽车 But there’s actually a lot of sort of boring solutions,但其实还有些较不起眼的解决方案 like heat pumps, that don’t get as much press,比如热泵 知名度不高 and aren’t as popular in the mainstream,在主流市场也不是很受欢迎 but it can deliver really massive carbon reductions.但它确实能实现大幅度碳减排
  • 2021-10-17触摸屏的工作原理How do Touchscreens work? By: Branch Education触摸屏是如何工作的? 由《分支教育》倾情献制 What enabled smartphones to dominate as a technology-是什么让智能手机成为一项主宰性的技术? to be so prolific and critical to our lives that I让它如此高产且对我们的生活至关重要? I would rather lose my car keys or wallet than my smartphone.以至于我们宁愿丢失车钥匙或钱包 也不愿丢失手机 The answer to this question isn’t a simple one liner, but rather it’s a combination of answers,这个问题的答案并不是简单的一句话 而是一些答案的组合 app development, wireless internet, carrier networks, Steve Jobs’ brilliant marketing,它涉及app开发 无线网络 载波网络 乔布斯卓越的营销等 tho I would argue the most important contributor was the seamless combination-不过我认为造成这一现象的最重要因素是 of different functions and technologies into a single package.我们能够将不同的功能和技术无缝组合到单一程序包中 In this episode, we’re going to explore the most distinctive feature本视频中 我们将探究 of the smartphone’s merging of technologies-智能手机所利用的技术中最特别的一项 the touchscreen display.也就是触屏显示 There are three technologies in the touchscreen display触屏显示利用了三项技术 These technologies are combined all on top of each other.这些技术通过一层叠一层的方式组合 When you felt and used a smartphone for the first time,当你第一次拿起并使用智能手机时 you just knew that you were holding something revolutionary –就会知道自己正拿着一个革命性的东西 something different from all previous phones.它与之前所有的手机都不同 These… were not new technologies.这不是新技术 Many devices used a tactile interface,许多设备都使用触觉接口 and color displays had already been a standard for most phones.彩色显示早已成为大多手机的标配 Even toughened glass had been discovered in the 1800s.即使是钢化玻璃也早在1800年代被发明 But the innovative element was combining them seamlessly.但创新之处在于将它们无缝结合在一起 One layer on top of another like magic.一层叠一层 就像魔法一样 Ok, so let’s get into the layers of a touchscreen display.OK 我们来看看触摸显示屏的不同层级 On the top, we have the protective glass.在最上层的是起保护作用的玻璃层 A lot of us have had a screen shatter-许多人都弄碎过屏幕 but think about how many times you’ve dropped it and it hasn’t.但是回想一下 有多少次你的手机掉了但是屏幕没事 That’s because a smartphone’s glass is over 5x stronger than normal glass.这是因为智能手机的玻璃强度是普通玻璃强度的5倍以上 And, before the first iPhone showed up in 20072007年第一款iPhone面世之前 the standard for cellphone screens was plastic-智能手机的屏幕都是用塑料制作的 and although plastic doesn’t shatter,塑料虽然不会碎 it is very easily scratched.但是很容易被划伤 If the screen were covered in plastic,如果用塑料覆盖屏幕 it wouldn’t last a week sitting in your pocket next to your keys-在把它和钥匙一起放在口袋时 before having dozens of scratches all over it.不出一周就会出现数十条划痕 So, what makes toughened glass so much stronger?那么 是什么使得钢化玻璃这么坚固呢? A smartphone’s glass is an aluminosilicate glass-智能手机的玻璃是硅酸铝玻璃 that is toughened by soaking it in a bath of molten potassium nitrate.这种玻璃在液态硝酸钾中浸泡处理过 This causes the sodium atoms in the glass migrate out,这导致玻璃中的钠原子被挤出 and much larger potassium atoms take their place.更大的钾原子代替了它们 Because the potassium atoms are much larger,因为钾原子更大 they generate a substantial compressive force on the surface of the glass.它们会对玻璃表面产生巨大压力 Here’s a quick analogy:做一个简单的类比 imagine filling the backseat of a car with 3 average sized people.想象一辆汽车的后座上坐着三个中等身材的人 They fit snugly but if you push them, they’re still able to move.他们坐在一起刚好合适 但推他们的话 彼此都还能动 Now replace those 3 people with 3 football linebackers.现在把这三个人换成三个足球后卫 Those linebackers are just flat out stuck-unable to move.这些后卫挤在一起动弹不得 It would take much more force to move those linebackers from their seats.推动他们就需要更大的力 This is the fundamental concept behind what makes toughened glass special,这就是钢化玻璃为什么这么坚固的基本原理 the atoms are compressed so it would take more force for the glass to break.原子被挤压 所以需要更大的力才能破坏玻璃 Below the toughened glass is a projected capacitive touchscreen在钢化玻璃下面是投射电容触摸屏 that senses the presence and location of conductive materials, such as your finger tip.它可以感知导电物体的存在与位置 譬如你的手指 This touchscreen is composed of two transparent diamond grid patterns-触摸屏上下两层是透明的聚酯纤维 printed on polyester with an optically clear insulator in the middle.上面印有菱形网格 中间则是一个光学绝缘层 The diamond grid pattern is printed with a transparent, material菱形网格是用铟锡氧化物(ITO)印上去的 called Indium Tin Oxide or ITO which acts as a conductor.这是种透明材料 可以作为导体 Let’s take a closer look on how it works.我们近距离看看它是怎么工作的 say we build up a bunch of electrons on this blue diamond,假设我们有一些电子在蓝色的菱形上 however because there is an insulator in the way, the electrons cannot move.但是由于中间是绝缘层 它们无法移动 The electrons generate a negative electric field-电子产生了负电场 which causes a bunch of positive charges to build up on the yellow diamond这导致正电荷积攒在黄色的菱形上 This is called a capacitor.这就是电容器 Now, when we move a conductive material such as the tip of your finger close to this capacitor现在 当将一个导体 比如手指 靠近这个电容 it disrupts the electric field-这将会扰乱电场 which changes the amount of positive charges that build up on the yellow diamond.并且改变黄色菱形上的正电荷数量 The change in positive charges caused by this disruption on the yellow diamond is measured,处理器会记录下这种扰乱引起的正电荷变化 and the processor registers this as a touch.并记为一次触摸 The location of the touch is detected触摸位置的确定 by scanning the charges or voltage along the blue diamond rows,需要扫描蓝色菱形行的电荷 while actively measuring each yellow diamond column.并同时测量每列黄色菱形上的电荷数量 Note that each row of blue diamonds is connected together,要注意 每一行的蓝色菱形是连在一起的 also each column of yellow diamonds is connected.每一列的黄色菱形也是连在一起的 This setup makes a grid of blue columns and yellow rows.这样的设计使得蓝色成列 黄色成行 Just to clarify again, all of these components are made with transparent materials.再说一次 所有的这些原件都是用透明材料制作的 Measuring each point requires too much circuitry, so we only measure each column.测量每个点位所需的电路过多 所以我们只需测量每一列 The charge or voltage gets sent to each row in quick succession,电荷或电压被快速连续地发送到每一行 so the processor can register multiple touches at once因此处理器可以同时记录多个触控点 Below that is a display which uses LCD or OLED technology.再下面是使用了LCD或OLED技术的显示屏 While the LCD and the OLED display both produce high quality images,虽然LCD和OLED显示屏都能显示高质量的图片 in this episode-在这个视频中 we are going to focus on the OLED technology as it is the standard in most new Smartphones.我们将把关注点放在OLED技术上 因为它已经是多数智能手机的标配 OLED stands for Organic light emitting diode.OLED指的是有机发光二极管 This high-resolution OLED display is what generates the high-quality images-高分辨率的OLED显示屏产生了 that we see whenever we look at our smartphone.我们平日里在手机里看见的高品质图像 This is a crazy intricate grid! Current 2018 high-end phones can have over 3.3 million pixels.这是张特别复杂的像素网格图 当前2018版高端手机像素可超330万 That means there are 10 million microscopic individually controlled-这意味着你手里有1000万个微型独立 dimmable red green and blue lights in the palm of your hand.且可控光强大小的红绿蓝光源 Take a moment to think about the engineering level recuired to control-花点时间想象一下控制这么多光源需要什么水平的工程能力 let alone design and manufacture that many microscopic lights!更不要说设计与制造这么多微型光源了 OLED displays are composed of a massive grid of individual pixels-OLED屏幕由大量的独立像素网格构成 and each pixel is composed of a red green, and blue subpixel.每个像素又包含红绿蓝三个子像素 Each subpixel’s light intensity is controlled by a small thin film transistor-每个子像素的光强都有一个小型薄膜晶体管控制 that acts as a dimmer switch.晶体管就像一个调光开关 There are many layered structures in each sub pixel,每个子像素又包含很多层结构 however explaining the function of each layer will have to be saved for a future episode.但是这些层的功能只能留到后续的视频介绍了 Photons are produced in the subpixel by electrons-在这些子像素中 that are driven from the negative to the positive terminal.光子由负端驱动到正端的电子产生 When they pass through this middle layer here, called the emissive layer,当它们穿过中间发射层时 photons are emitted through a release of energy.随着能量的释放产生光子 The compounds used to make up the emissive layer determines the color of the light emitted,组成发射层的物质决定了所发射光的颜色 and the intensity of this light is dependent on how many electrons pass through.光的强度取决于穿过的电子数量 This explanation is greatly simplified-这个解释是大大简化过的 but the research, engineering and science behind OLEDs is extensive.OLED背后需求的科学与工程量是巨大的 In fact the 2014 Nobel prize in Physics was awarded to 3 researchers-事实上 2014年的诺贝尔物理学奖正是由 for their discovery of efficient blue light emitting diodes!三位发现了高效蓝光LED的学者获得 So, let’s summarize:那么 我们做个总结吧 on the bottom is an OLED display composed of a 10 million itty bitty little colored lights.在底层是一个由1000万个小光源组成的OLED屏 On top of that is a transparent projected capacitive touchscreen-在它上面是能同时识别一点 that can sense one or multiple finger touches at a time.或多点触控的透明投射电容式触摸屏 And on top of that is strengthened glass在最上层是钢化玻璃 that protects your screen from scratches and most falls.可以保护屏幕以免划伤或跌落摔碎 Now you too are a touchscreen expert!现在 你也是一个触摸屏的专家了 If you have any questions, post them to the comments below.如果有任何疑问 请在下面的评论区提出 Subscribe, Like, and tell your friends or family about something you learned.订阅 点赞 并且告诉家人朋友你刚刚学到了什么 This episode details the structure of a touchscreen display.本视频介绍了触摸屏技术的构成 Branches from this episode are: Multitouch design, electric fields, Capacitors视频中的分支内容有 多点触控设计 电场 电容 OLEDs and their control, LCDs, Why are materials transparent? And interface aesthetics.OLED及其控制 LCD 为什么材料是透明的 以及界面的美观 Thanks again for watching and until next time,再次感谢观看 在下个视频推出前 consider the conceptual simplicity yet structural complexity in the world around us.多思考身边那些原理简单而结构复杂的事物吧
  • 2021-10-17苹果价值 50 亿美元的新总部内部In 2017 construction on Apple’s new headquarters, called Apple Park, was finally completed.2017年 苹果的新总部苹果公园终于竣工了 It took four years to build,and cost Apple over five billion dollars它的建造历时四年 花费了苹果50多亿美元 That makes it one of the most expensive buildings on earth.使其成为全球最贵的建筑之一 And many people have wondered what exactly Apple got for their money.许多人想知道苹果的钱都花在了哪 So in this video, we’re going to take a look inside Apple Park在这段视频中 我们就来一起看看苹果公园内部 and discover the buildings and facilities that make the headquarters so special.探索那些使总部如此特别的建筑和设施 This is Greg with Apple Explained.这里是格雷格的Apple Explained频道 This topic came in second place in the last voting poll这个话题在上次的投票中名列第二 and if you didn’t get a chance to vote make sure you’re subscribed如果你没有机会投票的话 记得订阅我 so future polls begin appearing in your mobile activity feed.这样未来的投票就会出现在你的动态中 Alright now let’s start off with the main building on Apple’s campus,好了 现在让我们从苹果园区的主楼开始吧 which is officially called “The Ring.”它被官方称为“圆环” It features four stories of office space for over 12,000 employees.拥有四层办公空间 可容纳超过1万2千名员工 A walkway lines the inner and outer perimeter of the building,一条人行道沿着建筑的内外两侧排列 which means it’d take about 7 and a half minutes to reach the opposite side,这意味着大约需要7分半钟才能到达对面 or about 15 minutes to walk all the way around.或者花大概15分钟才能走完一整圈 But you may not mind the long walk, considering the view you’d have while taking it.但考虑到沿途的风景 你可能不会介意长途跋涉 The Ring’s exterior is made up of 36 to 47 foot-long curved glass panels.“圆环”的外观由36至47英尺长的曲面玻璃板组成 Resulting in an open, seamless panoramic view of the outdoor landscape.从而形成开放无缝的户外景观全景 In fact, Apple Park was designed to be as open as possible事实上 苹果公园的设计初衷是尽可能的开放 in order to encourage the free-flow of ideas through chance meetings between employees.通过员工之间的偶遇来鼓励想法的自由流动 That’s why office spaces are formed into pods,这就是为什么办公空间被分成小空间 where a worker could be in deep concentration one minute,在这里 员工可能前一分钟还高度专注 then bump into a colleague in the next.下一分钟就会和同事打个照面 But not everyone was enthusiastic about this approach.但并不是每个人都对这种方式感兴趣 With many employees writing in to tech journalistst John Gruber许多员工写信给科技记者约翰·格鲁伯 criticizing the open floor plan批评这种开放式的楼层设计 Even more complained about the glass walls and doors,还有更多抱怨是关于玻璃墙和玻璃门的 which were easy to run into when distracted.因为一不留神就容易撞到它们 In fact, two workers were actually injured and required hospitalization事实上 真有两名员工在撞到半透明的墙和门后 after walking into the building’s translucent walls and doors.受伤并需要住院治疗 This prompted employees to stick posted notes on the glass这迫使员工在玻璃上贴便条 to make sure the obstacles were more noticeable.使玻璃墙更明显 but they were quickly removed because they detracted from the building’s design.但很快就被移除了 因为它破坏了建筑的设计 Another way The Ring encourages employee interaction is with one big restaurant“圆环”鼓励员工互动的另一种方式 是以一个大食堂 instead of several small ones located throughout the building.取代了遍布大楼的小食堂 That means employees have to walk further to reach the cafe,这意味着员工要走更远的路才能到餐厅 and increases the likelihood of interactions while eating,从而增加了吃饭时互动的可能性 since everyone is forced into the same 58,000 square foot eating area.因为大家都被迫使用同一个5万8千平方英尺的餐饮区 The restaurant itself is called Caffe Macs,餐厅本身被称为Macs咖啡厅 and features four-story sliding glass doors, the largest in the world,它拥有世界上最大的滑动玻璃门 足足四层楼高 that open to the courtyard on nice days.天气好的时候 门会对着庭院打开 And to prove just how much Apple cares about every detail,为了证明苹果公司是多么重视每一个细节 they actually patented their own pizza box他们还给防止披萨受潮的披萨盒申请了专利 that prevents the crust from getting soggy.并真的为此申请了专利 But there’s more to The Ring than meets the eye.“圆环”还远不止表面上看到的这些 because hidden underneath the four story behemoth,因为在这个四层楼高的庞然大物下面 is a two story parking garage藏着一个双层停车场 finished with reflective white tile, domed ceilings,装有反光的白色瓷砖 圆顶天花板 and traffic lights seamlessly integrated into the street signs.以及无缝地融入了街道标识的交通信号灯 This allows workers to drive in and out of Apple park without obstructing the beautiful view.这使得员工在开车进出苹果公园时不会妨碍美景 Speaking of which, the landscaping at Apple Park is one of its most important features.说到这里 苹果公园的景观是它最重要的特色之一 Jobs loved the foliage work done on stanford’s campus.乔布斯钟爱斯坦福大学校园里的绿植 and he tracked down one of the arborous responsible, David Muffley.他找到了其中一位园林负责人 大卫·马法利 who oversaw the planting of 9,000 indigenous trees at Apple Park,让他监督苹果公园9000棵本土树木的种植 hand picked not only for their appealing structure, but also their resistance to drought精心挑选的树木 不仅有好看的形态 还有抗旱能力 which has only become more common.而这已经变得越来越普遍 The courtyard area consists of mainly apricot, olive and Apple orchards,庭院区主要由杏园 橄榄园和苹果园组成 plus an herb garden near the cafe.在咖啡厅附近还有一个药草园 But there’s more than just foliage. Apple added an artificial pond除了有一堆绿植 苹果还增加了一个人工池塘 that just like The Ring Building, also happens to be a perfect circle.就像“圆环”一样 它恰好也是一个完美的圆形 there’s also a rectangular field with a rainbow structure还有一片带有彩虹结构的矩形场地 that actually serves as a stage for speakers or performances.它实际上是演讲或表演的舞台 The stage was actually co-designed by Jonathan Ive and Foster and Partners.这个舞台由乔纳森·艾维和福斯特建筑事务所共同设计 It uses the same rainbow colors as the early Apple logo,它使用了与早期苹果标志同款的彩虹色 and features rounded arches that can be fitted with lighting equipment.还有可以安装照明设备的圆形拱门 But it’s important to point out有必要说明的是 that the ring is just one of several buildings at Apple park.“圆环”只是苹果公园的几栋建筑之一 If you travel to the northwest area, which you can reach by using one of the gray Apple bicycles,如果你骑一辆灰色的苹果自行车去到西北边 you’ll find a building that may look a bit out of place.你会发现一栋看起来有点格格不入的建筑 It’s called the Glendenning barn.叫做格伦丁宁谷仓 and it wasn’t part of apple’s original plans.它不在苹果最初的规划之中 The barn was built in 1916,这个谷仓建于1916年 and happened to be on the land Apple purchased for their new headquarters.恰好位于苹果公司为其新总部购买的土地上 They wanted to demolish it completely,他们想过整个拆除它 but it had already been declared a historical site in 2004 by the city of Cupertino.但早在2004年 库比蒂诺市就宣布它为历史遗迹 So after some discussion, Apple agreed to keep the barn于是经过一番讨论 苹果公司同意保留谷仓 in use it to store maintenance tools and other landscaping materials.用于存放维修工具和其他园林绿化材料 Beside Glendening, barn is a much larger building在格伦丁宁谷仓旁边 有一座大得多的建筑 that was part of Apple’s plans.这是苹果公司规划里的一部分 It’s a 100,000 square foot fitness and wellness center,这是一个10万平方英尺的健身和健康中心 complete with changing rooms, showers, laundry services group, workout rooms.配备完整的更衣室 淋浴 洗衣服务 健身房 and a two story yoga room covered in stone.还有一间两层的石砌瑜伽室 But not just any stone,但不是普通的石头 Jobs made sure it was sourced from a specific quarry in Kansas乔布斯确保它来自堪萨斯州一个特定的采石场 and carefully distressed并且精心加工 to make it look like this stone from his favorite hotel in Yosemite.让它看起来像他在约塞米蒂最喜欢的酒店里的一样 Moving further south, you’ll find the sports fields,再往南走 你会看到运动场 where workers can enjoy a game of basketball or tennis.员工们可以在这里打篮球或网球 And even further South is the Apple park central plant,再往南 是苹果公园的总动力场 which is attached to the southern parking garage.它与南边的停车场相连 The central plant house’s utility equipment like fuel cells, backup generators,总动力厂装有燃料电池 备用发电机 chillers, condenser water storage, hot water storage,冷水机组 冷凝蓄水装置 热水储存器 an electrical substation, and water and fire pumps.变电站 水泵和消防泵等公用设备 While the parking garage allows for an additional 9,000 spaces for workers停车场为员工提供了额外的9千个停车位 for a total of 14,200 parking spaces at Apple Park.加起来 苹果公园共有14200 个停车位 Heading East from the southern garage, you’ll find my personal favorite building,从南边的车库往东走 你会看到我最喜欢的建筑 the Steve Jobs Theater.史蒂芬·乔布斯剧院 It’s a circular building made up of curved glass panels这是一座由弯曲玻璃板组成的圆形建筑 topped with the largest carbon fibre roof in the world.顶部是世界上最大的碳纤维屋顶 There’s so many amazing details about this building,关于这座建筑 有太多令人惊叹的细节 that I’ll probably make an entire video dedicated to it,我可能会专门为它制作一个完整的视频 so make sure you’re subscribed for that.所以一定要订阅我的频道 But long story short,但长话短说 The glass panels actually act as support beams for the roof,玻璃板实际上充当了屋顶的支撑梁 so no columns are necessary.所以不需要用到柱子 And if you’re wondering where the actual theater is,如果你在想真正的剧场在哪里 it’s all underground.答案是它整个都在地底下 You can reach it by either taking the beautifully crafted curved staircase.你可以通过这道制作精美的弧形楼梯到达 or by walking into a glass elevator that slowly rotates as it descends,或者搭乘一个玻璃电梯 它在下降过程中会缓缓旋转 allowing it to have just one door instead of two.这样就只需要一扇门 而不是两扇门 The theater itself holds 921 people,剧院本身可容纳921人 about three times more than Apple’s previous town hall.比苹果的老市政厅多出三倍 while still retaining an intimate feel.同时还能保留着亲切的感觉 And while much of the Steve Jobs Theater is underground虽然史蒂芬·乔布斯剧院大部分都位于地下 it was placed on the highest hillside in all of Apple Park.但它坐落于整个苹果公园最高的山坡上 as a symbolic gesture of respect to the man it was named after.作为对史蒂芬·乔布斯的致敬 Heading northeast from the theater is the visitors center.从剧院往东北方向走 是游客中心 which is the only part of Apple Park open to the public.这是苹果公园唯一对公众开放的部分 It’s a two-story building with four main areas这是一栋两层楼的建筑 有着四个主要的区域: An Apple Store featuring exclusive merchandise一家苹果专卖店 like t-shirts, hats, tote bags and post cards.专营t恤 帽子 大手提袋和明信片等独家定制商品 A 2,300-square-foot cafe,一家2千3百平方英尺的咖啡厅 an exhibition area that features a 3D model of Apple Park一个展览区 展示了苹果公园的3D模型 that visitors can explore in detail using augmented reality,游客可以使用虚拟现实技术来探索细节 and a rooftop terrace that overlooks the entire campus.还有一个能俯瞰整个园区的屋顶露台 The Visitor Center also has an underground parking garage with almost 700 spaces.游客中心还有一个地下停车场 有近700个停车位 Now this five billion dollar headquarters has received its fair share of criticism,这个价值50亿美元的总部已经受到了不少批评 for being too extravagant and its construction too perfectionist.因为它太过奢侈和过于完美主义的建筑设计 But I think those words describe precisely但我认为 这些话语恰好准确地描述了 the type of campus Steve Jobs wanted for Apple.史蒂夫·乔布斯希望为苹果公司打造的那种园区 and the words of Tim Cook.按照蒂姆·库克的话说 “Steve’s vision is reflected all around us at Apple Park.“史蒂夫的愿景体现在苹果公园的方方面面 He would’ve loved it here, in this place he dreamed up.他一定会喜欢这里 在他梦想的地方 the home and inspiration for Apple’s future innovations. “是苹果未来创新灵感的家园” Alright guys I hope you enjoyed that peek inside Apple Park,好了 伙计们 我希望你们喜欢这次的苹果公园内部参观 Don’t forget to subscribe别忘了订阅我的频道 to see a more detailed video about the Steve Jobs Theater观看更多关于史蒂夫·乔布斯剧院的详细视频 and to help decide which topics I cover,并帮助我决定下期视频涉及的主题 and I’ll see you in the next video.下一个视频见
  • 2021-09-15正在取代绿幕的技术You know the green screen (and blue screen).你肯定知道绿幕 还有蓝幕 You know it becomes the: Mist-covered planet, Deserted jungle你也知道它可以变成雾气笼罩的星球 被毁灭的丛林 Background for a bar, Packed athletic stadium – Panoramic waterfall酒吧的背景 拥挤的运动场 全景瀑布 What happens when the imaginary planet…is already there?从想象中的星球到荧幕场景 其中发生了什么? “The moment you step in the middle of the Volume,当你走进“Volume”中间的那一刻 you’re just, you’re just there.”你就……你就身处场景里了 “The Volume” is the epic sounding name“Volume”这个史诗级名字 for the combination of high resolution LED panels用于称呼高分辨率LED显示屏的组合 — imagine awesome huge TV screens wrapping around a stage —想象一下 巨大的电视屏幕环绕着舞台 the physical set design matched to the panels,物理布景设计得和显示屏相匹配 and 3D models plopped into an environment the same way they do in a video game.而那些3D模型会像在电子游戏里一样落入场景中 Then it can respond to camera movement to simulate the real world.这些模型还能响应摄像机位置移动来模拟真实世界 Disney +’s the Mandalorian, a live action Star Wars TV show, used this technique.迪士尼+的星战系列网剧《曼达洛人》就采用了这一技术 “My name is Charmaine Chan and I’m a lead compositor at Industrial Light and Magic.我是Charmaine Chan 工业光魔公司的首席特效合成师 工业光魔公司 视觉特效 最近的 Is it, is it physically, like, confusing being on this set?请问 在这样的片场工作 是否会让你感到困扰? “Oh absolutely, I mean, the thing is like you’re,噢 当然 我是说 you’re shooting all day,你一整天都在拍摄 Let’s say in the same exact scene我是说在同一个场景里面 and like you’re at that location,就像你真的在那个地方一样 it doesn’t feel like it’s something fake.你不会感觉场景是虚构的 It just feels like the extension of a regular stage.而像是普通舞台的延伸 You gotta be careful because there are times when people don’t see你得小心 因为经常会有人 where the edge of the stage is and where the LEDs are.”没注意到舞台的边缘以及LED屏幕所在 You have Wiley coyote and Roadrunner situations有点像《BB鸟和歪心狼》里那样 where somebody is like running into the wall or something.有人会不小心跑着撞到墙上 “Yeah. We, we definitely made sure是的 正因如此 that no one’s running in that stage because of that reason.”我们会要求在片场里不能跑步 Charmaine is credited as part of the Brain Bar –Charmaine在片尾被称为“智囊团”成员 the group of visual effects artists that operated this system.“智囊团”由操作这个系统的视觉效果设计师组成 One might adjust models, like a rock or spaceship, in the panels,组内有人调整石头或者飞船之类的模型在屏幕上的位置 while another might tweak live animations, like a burning fire.而另一些人需要布置动态效果 比如燃烧的火焰 Charmaine often adjusted color.Charmaine的分工通常是调整色彩 “It was funny cause it, it looked very much like,这项工作很有趣 因为它特别像 you know, back in the day when you would have回到以前PBS播的那种 a telephone fundraising stuff like,电话筹款的日子 on PBS and it was just like rows of people phone’s ready to go,几排人随时准备着接电话 but instead of phones we had computers and our walkies.”只是我们现在不用电话 而是电脑和对讲机 As Mandalorian VFX supervisor Ian Milham Tweeted,正如《曼达洛人》的视觉特效监制Ian Milham在推特上说的 the set crew and Brain Bar operating the panels当片场成员和操纵屏幕的“智囊团” let them radically change environments in just a few hours or be on set…把场景设置成多维空间 as they launched it into hyperspace.可以在几个小时内彻底改变片场环境 “My normal working life is very much behind之前我的工作一般是在某个小角落的办公室 the computer in a dark room, somewhere in the corner.在昏暗的房间里操作电脑 Now I’m actually in there而现在我会在片场 with the gaffer, with the prop designers, with the set designers,和灯光师 道具设计师 布景师一起工作 most people that we would never see他们中的大部分人我们都不会见到 because we’re in the post production process.因为我们从事的是后期制作 It was very exhilarating.”新的工作模式很令人兴奋 But sets like this one weren’t just fun for Charmaine.但像这样的场景对Charmaine来说就不完全有趣了 They helped remove creative roadblocks.因为他们需要帮助消除这些障碍 As a compositor, we’re the ones who kind of take all the renders,作为特效合成师 我们负责所有的渲染 take all the CG elements and put them together需要把所有的CG元素结合在一起 to make it look like it’s a seamless, integrated photo.让它看起来像是一个无缝的整体画面 So think of it as like advanced Photoshop,因此 我们可以把这项技术视为高级版的Photoshop But we’re dealing with moving imagery.”只不过我们处理的是动态图像 Charmaine worked on this scene in The Last Jedi.Charmaine在《最后的绝地武士》处理了这个镜头 这个镜头是基洛在绿幕前拍摄的 If you’re lucky, this green screen will be evenly lit, with no seams.幸运的话 这个绿幕的打光会是均匀 无缝衔接的 And it’s piece of cake. That’s never the scenario.这样对后期来说就是小菜一碟了 但这完全不可能 We’re spending the time, almost frame by frame,我们要花大量时间 一帧一帧地检视 making sure we can remove that green screen以确保把绿幕全部移除 so that we can put Kylo on top of that.”才能让特效完美地出现在基洛后方 Removing a green screen is actually still pretty hard.移除绿屏现在实际上还是很困难的 For one, it doesn’t work with green characters.首先 不适用于绿色的角色 “Yoda’s green.”尤达是绿色的 Removing one solid color — or “keying” can look good,移除纯色 或者叫“抠像”看起来挺好 but you still need detail work.但你仍需要对细节进行调整 See how these fine branches just disappear.看看这些细枝是怎么消失的 The perspective of the background also doesn’t naturally change –背景的透视关系也无法随之自动改变 that has to be designed into the final composite.必须在最后合成时进行调整 Ditching the greenscreen and projecting or playing the image behind the actors….放弃绿幕而改为在演员背后投影或播放图片 会更让你感觉到场景真实 不过远不止于此 You can get detail and an illusion of depth and better light.你能得到更多细节 更好的景深和优质的的光线 Instead of green screen spilling on the actor,不同于让绿幕的颜色溢出在演员身上 you get blue sky, and red desert actually lighting them.照亮他们的是蓝色的天空和红色的沙漠 That basic technique has worked in everything from 2001 to Oblivion,从《2001太空漫游》到《遗落战境》 这项基础技术应用于各个方面 but you miss the proper perspective shift, or parallax, in the background,但你没法让背景随视线调整 或者说得到正确的视差 since it’s just a video playing on a screen.因为它只是在屏幕上播放的视频 The volume tackles some of those problems.“Volume”解决了其中一些问题 You can also adjust light and objects on the fly.你可以调整光线和画面中的物体 还能营造反射效果 because they are reflecting the other screens instead of green screen –因为他们反射的是来自其他屏幕的光线 而非绿幕的光 which was especially important for Mando —这一点对剧中的主角—— the show’s main character.曼达洛人非常重要 “His whole armor was reflective from head他的整个盔甲 从头到脚都是反光的 to toe, whether it be his pauldron or his helmet, it was just like,无论是它的盔甲还是头盔 总之 you can’t avoid seeing things being reflected.你无法避免地会看到光线被反射 So creating this volume where we literally could close up the whole thing into one giant circle而“Volume”能让我们把所有东西放进一个大圆环中 and have an environment all across these screens.然后通过这些屏幕创造光线环境 We were getting exactly what we wanted to out of his helmet.”从而得到我们在头盔上想要看到的效果 The brain bar could focus on details that made the final product as seamless as possible“智囊团”专注于细节 使成片尽可能没有瑕疵 — which was still a lot of work.这个工作量也很大 “I would go in and whether it be a rock or a barrel or something,我会检视片场 不管是一个石头或者桶 还是别的什么 I would try to color correct it to match what was on the set.我都会试着对其颜色进行修正 使其和片场颜色相匹配 But where color correction was more important但对于颜色校正而言 was when we’re dealing with the bigger parts of the sets.更重要是处理片场里的较大部分 So whether that be the dirt on the ground versus dirt in our digital scene.比如将地上泥土的颜色和虚拟背景里泥土的颜色相匹配 And the lighting from the scene affected the dirt on the ground.而背景屏幕的光线又会影响地面泥土的颜色 So we would have to like,所以我们又得…… because we had a blue sky and suddenly now there’s all this blue on this rock.因为天是蓝色的 所以此时这块石头上会有蓝光 We would have to color correct the ground and the rock所以我们又得修正地面和石头的蓝色 to also have just as much blue as the blue that we just introduced.来保证它们的色调与刚才我们提到的环境匹配 Before they started shooting, I would have. Five to 10 minutes在拍摄前 我会有5到10分钟 to have that all lined up and ready to go.”来进行这些工作 准备开拍 I can imagine that, that there are some creative我能想象有很多创造性的突破 breakthroughs that this makes possible for, for your job.让你的工作有了新的可能性 What would those be with this technology?这些技术会带来什么影响? “I’ll be honest. I would not be mad if说实话 即使我以后再也不用做绿幕抠像或特效 I never have to do a green screen keying or extraction ever again.我也不会感到生气 Now I get to be a person who’s doing the shot因为现在我是一个真正在参与拍摄的人 and I can help basically finalize a shot in camera.我能帮助他们在镜头前完成拍摄 It just makes it a more cohesive filmmaking process,这让整个电影拍摄过程更加流畅了 and this puts us right in there next to everyone else而且这项技术也让我们和其他制作节目或电影的人一起 who’s creating these shows or films.”参与到制作过程中去 威瑞森电信出品 It was great to talk to Charmaine这是一次和Charmaine的精彩对话 and learn a little bit about her work and some of the amazing things that she’s worked on.让我对她的工作 还有她超棒的工作成果有了一定的了解 This video is actually from a sponsor, which is Verizon.本视频由威瑞森电信赞助播出 They just turned on 5G Nationwide.威瑞森电信最近开通了全国5G服务 So with 5G Nationwide, and in more and more cities随着5G在全国范围内越来越多城市的普及 you get the unprecedented performance of 5G Ultra Wideband.您将获得前所未有的5G超宽带性能 It’s really fast, the world’s fastest 5G.网速确实很快 是世界上最快的5G You can download an album in a few seconds.您只需要几秒就能下载一个专辑 It’s not just gonna change your phone, it’ll change everything.它不仅会改变你的手机 还会改变一切 I’m guessing that a lot of creative breakthroughs will come from it too.我猜未来它还会带来很多创造性的突破 So this is the 5G America’s been waiting for, and it’s only from Verizon.这就是美国一直在等待的5G 由威瑞森电信独家提供 Verizon doesn’t directly impact our editorial,威瑞森电信没有直接介入视频编辑 but their support makes videos like this possible.但他们的支持使此类视频得以播出
  • 2021-09-14拉斯维加斯正在建造世界上最大的球It’s positioned in one of the world’s driest and hottest deserts –拉斯维加斯地处全球最干燥也是最热的沙漠之一 but that hasn’t stopped Las Vegas going from a small railway outpost但这并不妨碍它从一个小小的铁路哨站 to a city of over 2.2M people that发展成一个拥有220万人口的城市 now welcomes over 42M tourists in a typical year.如今 每年有4200万旅客前来游玩 Vegas’ ability to reinvent itself time and again拉斯维加斯不断自我改造的能力 has seen it transform from an escape for the builders of the Hoover Dam见证了它从胡佛水坝建设者的避难所 into America’s playground转变为美国的娱乐城 and the only city in the world where you can see拉斯维加斯是世界上唯一一个能够在一天之内同时游览 the Eiffel Tower, Statue of Liberty, Egyptian Pyramids,埃菲尔铁塔 自由女神像 埃及金字塔 and the canals of Venice all in a single day.以及威尼斯运河的城市 But with some competitors now emerging in the Middle East and Asia,但随着中东和亚洲出现了一些竞争对手 Las Vegas is in a fight to maintain its status as the entertainment capital of the world,拉斯维加斯正在努力维持其世界娱乐之都的地位 and is betting big-time on its latest attraction.并在其最新景点上押下重金 The world-first spherical structure, containing the world’s largest and highest resolution LED screen世界上首个内置全球最大 分辨率最高的LED屏的球体建筑 will not only transform the Las Vegas skyline,不仅改变了拉斯维加斯的天际线 but quite literally reshape the entertainment industry.同时还会相当真实地重塑娱乐产业结构 Since the days of Dean Martin and the Rat Pack in the 1960s自20世纪60年代的迪恩·马丁和鼠帮时代以来 Las Vegas has been renowned for live entertainment拉斯维加斯一直以现场演出 and between showcase fights and residencies from Lady Gaga以及Lady Gaga 席琳·迪翁 布兰妮·斯皮尔斯 魔力麦克的 Celine, Dion, Britney Spears and Magic Mike表演秀和驻场表演而闻名 the city is constantly raising the bar with what it has to offer.这座城市在不断提高他所提供的一切的标准 Its latest offering, developed by Madison Square Garden Entertainment它的新建筑是由麦迪逊广场花园娱乐公司开发的 and located just off the strip behind the Venetian位于威尼斯人酒店后面的狭长地带 is unlike anything anywhere else on Earth.不同于地球上任何其他地方 Known as the MSG Sphere这个耗资18亿美元的球形娱乐场所 the USD $1.8BN spherical entertainment venue被称为“MSG sphere” will stand 112-metres tall, contain 17,500 seats高112米 拥有17500个座位 and feature the largest and highest-resolution LED screen in the world –配备全球最大且分辨率最高的LED屏幕 that’s 19,000 x 13,500 pixels in case you were wondering.其像素大概是19000*135000 The screen covers an area larger than three football fields屏幕覆盖的面积比三个足球场还大 wrapping up, over and behind the stage全方位围绕整个舞台上方及后方 to give the audience a fully immersive experience给观众带来充分的沉浸式体验 that’s 100 times clearer than today’s best HD TVs.比目前最好的高清电视清晰一百倍 Outside, the building’s going to be covered with 54,000 square metres of programmable lighting建筑外部将配备54000平方米的编程控制式照明 giving those who can’t get in a show of their own.这样的设计是为了让无法观看演出的人也能一饱眼福 But the MSG Sphere is more than just a high-definition screen.而MSG sphere不仅仅只是一个高清屏幕 Using an advanced acoustics system known as beam-forming technology,其中还运用了波学形成技术这一先进的声学系统 multiple audio streams can be delivered directly to individual seats simultaneously多个音频流可以同时直接传送到单个座位上 while an infrasound haptic system will use vibrations而次声触觉系统将通过振动 to enable guests to quite literally feel the sound around them.使观众真正地感受到周围的声音 It’s not just those experiences are unique不仅是这些体验非常独特 the way the building is being built is also unlike anything seen before.这样的建筑方式也是世界首创 Work first began in 2018 with the drilling of nearly 600 piles2018年开始动工 打了接近600个桩 and the excavation of some 84,000 cubic metres of material.挖掘了大约84000立方米的物料 That’s not to stop the sphere rolling away这不是为了阻止球体移动 but rather to support the weight of the immense structure而是为了支撑巨大结构的重量 and create a 5,000 square metre basement for events, dressing rooms并为活动 更衣室以及其他使场馆运作的设施 and other amenities that make the venue run.建造了一个5000平方米的地下室 The building’s superstructure is made of four concrete cores建筑的上层结构是由四个混凝土核心 tied together with over 9,500 tonnes of steel与超过9500吨重的钢铁相连接 to create a series of tensioned ring beams形成一系列受拉的环形梁 that hold the weight of the 11,000-tonne roof.以支撑11000公吨屋顶的重量 With such a big distance to span由于跨越的距离如此之大 the team had to ship the world’s fourth-largest crawler crane over from Belgium建造方不得不从比利时运来世界第四大履带起重机 to position some of the the largest and heaviest components.来放置一些最大最重的部件 Standing 10 metres taller than the nearby High Roller observation wheel at its peak,这个起重机比附近的豪华摩天轮最顶端高出十米 the crane was a construction project in itself而且它本身就是一个建筑工程 taking 18 days to assemble on site.需要花18天在现场进行组装 To build the roof,为了建造屋顶 an 86-metre temporary shoring tower was first assembled in the middle of the arena.舞台中央首先搭建了一个高86米的临时脚手架塔 Then a 154-tonne compression ring was placed on top然后在顶部放置一个154公吨重的压缩环 that 32 steel trusses all connected into.32根钢桁架被全部连接在了一起 Due to their immense size and weight由于其巨大的尺寸和重量 the compression ring and trusses were each assembled on the ground over several weeks压缩环和桁架在被吊装到位之前 before being craned-into place. 都在地面上组装了几个星期 The temporary shoring tower was then removed临时脚手架塔随后会被拆除 and the equal forces of the roof structure began to counter each other –屋顶结构的等量力将开始相互抵消 creating a column-free, uninterrupted space within the sphere.在球形建筑内部创造出一个无中柱 不间断的空间 Topping out the steel framework in mid-2021,钢桁架将于2021年年中封顶 work is now underway on the sphere’s geodesic exoskeleton目前球体测地线外骨骼正在施工 which will add an additional 24 metres to its overall height这将使球体整体高度增加24米 and provide the surface for the exterior LED displays.并为外部LED显示屏提供表面 Once fully enclosed, work on the state-of-the-art fit-out will begin.一旦球体完全密封 最先进的装备工作就将开始 Like so many things,和许多事情一样 the project was briefly disrupted by the pandemic and its completion,该项目施工曾因疫情而短暂中断 and first performance are now set for 2023.目前首演日期定于2023年 While some may have thought that MSG Sphere would be just another arena,尽管有人认为MSG Sphere只是一个演出舞台 the completion of its incredible structure但其令人难以置信的结构完成 has already made it an unmissable addition to the city’s skyline.已经使它成为这个城市天际线不可错过的一部分 Set to connect to the Venetian and Palazzo via the Sands Expo and Convention Center该建筑将通过金沙会展中心 连接威尼斯人和宫殿酒店 and with an addition to the Las Vegas monorail planned,同时计划增加拉斯维加斯单轨列车 the MSG Sphere looks set to become the latest must-see in a city of must-seesMSG Sphere俨然成为拉斯维加斯最新必看景点 a building that’s every bit Las Vegas.这是一个能代表拉斯维加斯的建筑 If you enjoyed this video如果你对这个视频感兴趣 and you want to get more from the definitive video channel for construction想观看有关这个建筑的后续视频了解更多详情 make sure you’re subscribed to The B1M.请点击订阅B1M
  • 2021-09-06为什么是月球?We are going.我们在前进 The history of this agency is marked with broken barriers once viewed as impossible.该机构的历史标志着 曾被视为不可能的障碍被打破 With science fiction turned to reality.科幻小说变成了现实 With innovations that have spun industries all their own.创新带动了整个行业的发展 And with demonstrations of peace for all human kind.向全人类展示和平 We soar in the skies of our home planet.我们在地球的上空翱翔 We maintain our human presence just outside of the gravity.我们在重力之外维持人类的存在 And we touch points all across the solar system and beyond.我们探索太阳系内外的每一个角落 We are going back to the moon and this is why.我们要重返月球 以下就是原因 The moon is a treasure trove of science.月球是科学的宝库 It holds opportunities for us to make discoveries它让我们有机会 about our home planet, about our sun, and about our solar system.对地球 太阳和太阳系有所发现 The wealth of knowledge to be gleamed from the moon从月球上闪烁出来的知识财富 will inspire a new generation of thought and action.将会激励下一代的思想和行动 Without fail, every major program and mission NASA has invested in无一例外 NASA投资的每一个重大项目和任务 has led to technologies and capabilities that have shaped our culture.都带来了技术和能力 塑造了我们的文化 The breakthroughs of the Artemis Era will define our generation and the generations to follow.阿耳忒弥斯时代的突破将定义我们这一代以及以后的世世代代 The tens of thousands of jobs associated will appeal us to the moon today今天 那些数以万计 吸引着我们从事与月球相关的工作 are just the begin ning of a lunar economy仅仅是月球经济的开始 that will see hundreds of thousands of new jobs to build around the world.未来 月球将会为全世界带来成千上万的新工作 This is not an ambition of one entity or one country.这不仅是一个集体或者国家的志向 The exploration of the moon is a shared effort.探索月球需要全世界共同的努力 Woven together by a desire for the greater good.世界各国为了更大的利益要一起合作 Why the moon?为什么选择月球? Because the missions of tomorrow will be sparked by the accomplishments of the Artemis generation today.因为明天的使命将被今天的阿耳忒弥斯一代的成就所激发 Because the ambition to go has already begun.因为探索月球的行动已经开始了 And because Mars is calling.还因为火星在召唤我们 We need to learn what it takes to establish community on another cosmic shore.我们需要了解如何在另一个宇宙海岸建立社区 So let’s camp close before pushing out.所以我们决定在前往火星之前先在附近扎营 And so, we go to the moon now not as a series of isolated missions,所以 现在去月球 不是作为一系列孤立的任务 but to build a community on and around the moon,而是在月球及周围建立一个社区 capable of proving how to live on other worlds.以证明如何在其他星球上生活 We’ll use the lessons for more than 50 years of peaceful exploration我们将利用五十多年来和平探索的经验教训 to send a new generation to the lunar surface to stay.将下一代送上月球表面居住 We’ll anchor our efforts on the lunar south pole to establish the Artemis space camp.我们将在月球南极建立阿尔忒弥斯太空营地 Position us for long term science and exploration of the lunar surface.为我们在月球表面长期的科学研究和探索提供营地 We will prove what it takes to assemble a complex ship in deep space.我们将证明如何在外太空组装一艘复杂的飞船 We’ll perfect descending down tool and returning problem in the systems.我们将优化下降工具并解决系统返回问题 We’ll learn how humans can survive and thrive in the partial gravity environment.我们将探索人类如何在部分失重环境中生存和发展 With improved spacesuit designs, mobile habitats,有了更先进的宇航服和移动栖息地 and with reconnaissance robots prepositioned even relocated supplies.以及能够预先放置甚至搬运物资的侦察机器人 We will learn how to utilize the resources we find on these other worlds.我们将学会利用我们在其他世界找到的资源 Starting with finding water ice and purifying it to drinkable water,首先要找到水冰并将其净化成可饮用的水 and refine that into hydrogen for fuel and oxygen to breathe.然后将其提炼成作为燃料的氢气和供呼吸的氧气 We will establish fission power plants on the surface of the moon,我们将在月球表面建立裂变电站 capable of supporting of growing community of efforts.以支持不断发展的社区 And we will expand the logistics supply chain我们还将扩大物流供应链 to enable commercial and international partners,使商业和国际合作伙伴 to resupply and refuel, deep space outposts.能够为外太空前哨基地提供补给并加油 None of this is simple or easy.所有的这一切都不简单 But nothing in our history ever has been.但我们的历史也从来不是一帆风顺的 The Eagle has landed.“鹰号着陆了 We got bunch of guts, about to turn blue. We are breathing again. Thanks a lot.我们很有勇气 我们又活过来了 感谢” This kind of continuous lunar presence as a natural extension我们把在月球上的探索看作是 of all that we’ve learned in low earth orbit.我们在近地轨道上所了解的一切的自然延伸 And what we will accomplish there我们在那里完成的任务 will ensure the monumental missions to Mars are within reach.将确保我们能够实现前往火星的宏伟使命 As we’re ready the launch of the first Artemis mission当我们准备好开展第一个阿尔忒弥斯任务时 and as commercial companies ready their lunar landers for the first private payload deliveries,当商业公司准备好他们的月球着陆器进行第一次私人载荷运送时 we have already begun to take the next step.我们已经开始走下一步了
  • 2021-09-03水的未来what we think of as normal在正常情况下 我们所认为的 and what we planned for as normal在正常情况下 我们所计划的 and the infrastructure that we built to deal with normal我们为应对正常情况所建的基础设施 isn’t normal anymore.这些都已不再正常 Normal is gone.正常情况已经消失了 What happens next?接下来会发生什么? Future of water水的未来 New water restrictions have been imposed in Cape Town, South Africa.在南非的开普敦 新的限水令已经开始施行 In India在印度 rising temperatures threaten to make a severe water crisis there even worse.高温使那里严重的水危机更加恶化 The greatest global risks of our time,我们这个时代最大的全球危机 the shortage of water.是水资源的匮乏 By 2050, the United Nations says联合国宣称 到2050年 more than 5 billion people could be facing water shortages across the globe.全球超过50亿人会面临缺水问题 Normal is gone because populations around the world have grown so large正常情况消失 是因为世界人口数量已经如此之大 Normal is gone because humans are now changing the climate and是因为人类改变了全球气候 we’re in a completely new set of conditions,and environments, and extreme events.使得我们处于全新的环境条件和极端气候事件中 You can look at water problems and easily work yourself into a panic.看看水问题 你会很容易陷入恐慌 We’re talking about我们现在说得是 95 percent of the population is actually living today in a country95%的人口所居住的国家 that has less water than it did 20 years ago.所拥有的水资源比20年前更少 Take the nation of Namibia in the southwest corner of Africa.以非洲西南角的国家纳米比亚为例 It’s named for the Namib Desert,这个国家因为纳米布沙漠而得名 which is one of the oldest deserts on earth.纳米布沙漠是地球上最古老的沙漠之一 So this may seem like a weird place to come looking for the future of water.所以在这个地方找寻水的未来 看起来真得很奇怪 There are no running rivers within Namibia.纳米比亚境内没有流动的河流 They’re only on our borders.只在国界处有河流 So we are always in a state of uncertainty with our water supply.所以我们对于水的稳定供给一直没有把握 So this is probably the worst place to have a major city built on.这里可能是建大型的城市最糟糕的地方 And yet, Namibia’s capital, Windhoek, isn’t dying of thirst.但 它的首都温得和克 并没有陷入水危机 Windhoek found a radical source of water温德和克发现了全新的水源 that’s abundant and available to a city of any size,no matter how dry.无论气候多么干燥 无论城市大小 水源都充裕并随时可获取 Here, you’ll find a facility with a unique mission.在这里你可以看到一个独一无二的设备 There was just simply not enough water from the sources around Windhoek在温得和克周边没有足够的水源 And they looked at what do we have.人们开始注意到他们所拥有的水源 We have a lot of waste water.我们有大量废水 Water reclamation.水回收利用 We basically drink our wastewater, our shi* water,基本上我们会饮用废水 厕所里的水 sorry to say. But yeah.很抱歉要说出来 但就是这样 While many cities usually just clean up sewage and then dump it into a river,很多城市清理污水 然后排入河流 Windhoek takes that treated water and sends it into their water recycling plant.而温得和克把处理过的水又送往水循环厂 There’s a system of tanks and pipes在水槽和管道系统中 where any leftover solid matter gets filtered out所有残余的固体物质都会被过滤掉 microorganisms are killed off, and even antibiotics and hormones get broken down.微生物被消灭 甚至抗生素和激素也会被分解 The last step involves an ultrafiltration membrane.最后一步是经过超过滤薄膜 which will filter out basically all suspended particles, all bacteria and all viruses.这一步基本上会过滤掉所有悬浮颗粒 细菌和病毒 Then it’s mixed with other treated water that’s collected from然后就和其它收集的处理水混合到一处 an underground aquifer and reservoirs for seasonal rain,包括从地下含水层的和雨季时水库收集到的水 which means that every time someone in Windhoek opens a tap,这意味着 在温得和克每次打开水龙头 about a quarter of what comes out is recycled waste water.流出的水约四分之一是循环废水 It is both miraculous in one sense that you can have disgusting water从某种意义上说你会喝令你感到恶心的水 很不可思议 that you shouldn’t be drinking那是你不该喝的 that is completely unhealthy for you.这是非常不健康的 But at the same time, it’s just H2O.但同时 这两者其实都是H2O And if you take everything around that H2O away,如果你把H2O以外的物质都去掉 then you end up with pure water again.那你会再次得到纯净水 The system is monitored around the clock通过仪表监视整个水循环系统 and the water is continually tested,并且一直对水进行检测 both in the facility and in samples sent to independent labs.包括设备里的水和送到独立实验室的采样水 We do this for every four hours.每四个小时检测一次 I’m sure. I know. I’m the one who produces this water.我有把握 我很了解 我就是生产水的人 I know the quality of this water,我知道水的质量 so I trust my own product.所以我相信自己的产品 We can not afford to lose the trust of the people drinking the water.我们承受不起失去饮用这种水的人们的信任 And that is not people far away,那不是远方的人 that starts with my family, with my friends.那里有我的家人朋友 So we can’t afford to even slip up once所以我们一次都不能出错 because if we messed up once, we’re out of the business.如果搞砸一次 这件事情就再也无法进行了 I say “ Cheers”“干杯” Building that trust means建立信任意味着 contending with an understandable aversion to dirty water.要克服对脏水的自然产生的厌恶 When a cholera epidemic broke out in London’s Soho neighborhood in 1854,1854年 霍乱在伦敦的索霍区附近爆发 British scientist John Snow paved the way for the modern field of epidemiology英国科学家约翰•斯诺成为了现代流行病学领域的先驱 by tracing the outbreak to a tainted well.就是因为他追溯到霍乱来源于受污染的水泵 So it’s not surprising that the dangers of mixing drinking water and waste water are feared.所以 人们害怕饮用水和污水系统混合的危险一点也不奇怪 There’s thousands of years of history packed into that resistance在上万年历史长河中 人们都反对(混合系统) and that has served us well.确实 只用饮用水很安全 But we need to add this idea that water can be cleaned.但我们现在需要理解 水可以被清洁 You can use it, it’s dirty,水在使用后 就变成污水 clean it up, use it again.净化污水 就可以再次使用 And this technology而且这种清洁技术 isn’t something newfangled that people living in Windhoek recently had to accept.并不是什么温得和克居民最近不得不接受的新潮 Namibians have been drinking recycled water for the past half century.在上半个世纪 纳米比亚人一直饮用循环水 Windhoek took this giant leap forward温得和克之所以向前迈出一大步 because in the 1950s they nearly ran out of water and had to ration it.是因为在20世纪50年代水几乎用完了 只能定量供应 Those people, are they growing horns,那些人 他们长角了吗 or are they funny looking, you know?或者看起来可笑吗 Are they still normal?他们还正常吗 There are no health outbreaks, no epidemics or没有疾病爆发 没有瘟疫 something that happened as a result of our reuse directly.没有出现 因再利用污水直接导致的其他后果 There’s nothing.什么也没有 In the end, it came down to a point,最后 就是这样 it’s this, or nothing.就是这样 没有不好的后果 So it was a matter of survival.它事关生存问题 Since the plant was first opened, Windhoek has faced more droughts自从设备第一次运行 温得和克度面对了愈加干旱的气候 and that’s led to more demand that even more water be recycled.这也就导致了再循环更多的水的需求 It’s always been that sort of saving grace.是节省的恩赐 So once the community actually saved it.所以一旦人们真正节约用水 They now rely on that to bring them through tough periods.他们会依赖节约来度过困难时期 Since Windhoek’s adopted this technology,自从温得和克应用这种技术 a handful of other cities have embraced drinking their recycled waste water,小部分别的城市也开始饮用再循环水 but in other places, this technology has been met with resistance.但在其他地方 这种技术遭到了反对 Toilet water is toilet water.厕所用水就是厕所用水 Damn water I don’t think has been toilet water, ever.我从没有想过喝厕所水 It’s toilet water.那可是厕所用水 What do I look like, a dog or something?我看起来像狗之类的牲畜吗 I am not drinking no toilet water.我可不会喝厕所水 But while Windhoek might seem extreme in how it handles its wastewater,虽然温得和克在处理污水上看起来极端 it’s likely that many people are already drinking some wastewater.但事实上可能很多人已经在饮用废水了 Everybody lives downstream of somebody.每个人都生活在某个人的下游 There is a waste water pipe put into the Mississippi River密西西比河边就放置了污水排放管道 every eight miles from Minneapolis to New Orleans.从明尼阿波利斯到新奥尔良每隔8英里就会有一个管道 So everybody downstream of Minneapolis is pulling water out所以下游的明尼阿波利斯人都在抽取 that 10 or 20 or 40 other cities have used.10个 20个或者40个城市用过的水 So that idea of pure water,所以纯净水这种概念 everyone likes to think that they’re drinking pure water每个人都愿意认为自己喝的是纯净水 but it’s just because you simply don’t know what you are drinking.但只是因为你不了解你所喝的水 As water gets scarcer,随着水越来越少 Windhoek is looking at the more expensive and energy-intensive option温得和克正在尝试更昂贵更耗能的选择 of pumping desalinated water from the coast to the inland city.也就是从海岸输送脱盐水到内陆 But the city is also emphasizing something else: conservation.但这座城市也重视水资源保护 In her home, Mayday Thomas closed off all the taps在家里Mayday Thomas 关掉了所有水龙头 except for the shower head.只留下了淋浴喷头 Instead of letting water run freely from the taps while they cook or clean,做饭或者清洗时为了不让水流失 they fill a 20-liter bucket and take water from there.她们用一个20公升的桶从那里接水 When you open a tap it doesn’t tell you打开水龙头后 它不会告诉你 that you’ve opened two liters or five liters or 20 liters.流出了2升 5升还是20升的水流量 We’ve experienced droughts, say, 2013 and then now 2016我们经受过干旱 像2013年和现在的2016年 who says there’s not going to be another drought the next two years or next three years谁能保证未来两年或者三年内不会有下一次干旱 And watching how much water you use所以关注用水量 becomes even more critical when you go to the shantytowns on the outskirts of Windhoek对于水龙头都是公用的温得和克郊区的贫民区 that rely on communal taps.就更为关键了 And in some of the newer settlements,在一些新聚居地 they’re still waiting for those taps to be built.公用水龙头还没有建好 The same day that those people fill up the tank is the same day the water runs out人们装满人工蓄水池的那一天 就是水用尽的那一天 Shali Eminent DeMario says莎里•德马里奥说 his section of the neighborhood relies on a tank that’s only filled sporadically.他所在的街区只能依靠一个偶尔有水的人工蓄水池 You have to save water.你必须节约用水 Each and every time you have to make sure there is water for tomorrow.每次都要确保明天有水用 Even in Windhoek, it’s the more affluent neighborhoods that use up a higher percentage of water,即使在温得和克 就是更富裕的社区消耗了更高比例的水资源 sometimes on things like sun-exposed pools and lush gardens.水有时用于室外游泳池和郁郁葱葱的花园 If you’ve never experienced water scarcity or water shortage,如果从没有经历过缺水 obviously you won’t think about the water很明显你不会去考虑水的问题 because your system is like that:因为你所在的系统就那样运行 you open the tap and it’s there.打开水龙头就有水 It’s not just water from the tap.水不是来自水龙头 That’s not the source of water.那并不是水的源头 The developed world has lived through我认为发达国家历经了 what I think of as about a century of the golden age of water.可以称之为水的黄金时代的一百年 People never thought about it.人们从来没想过水问题 It was unthinkingly clean and safe.水就是干净安全的 It was unlimited and it was essentially free.没有用量限制 基本免费 The problem is that that whole system is invisible问题在于整个水系统是不可见的 and we aren’t living in the golden age of water anymore.我们不再生活在水的黄金时代了 As more places across the globe全球越来越多的城市 start to feel the pressure of dwindling access to freshwater,开始感受到淡水减少的压力 what Windhoek can teach us is温得和克所教给我们的是 that dealing with this problem takes innovative technology,要用创新技术来应对这个问题 but just as importantly,同样重要地是 it’ll take thinking about water way before we turn on a tap,在打开水龙头前 需要考虑节约用水 and long after it goes down the drain.在水排入下水道后 也要考虑循环用水 In the end,最后 all global water problems, as severe and real as they are,全球的水问题 真实而且严峻 aren’t going to be solved at the global level.并不会以全球层面解决 They’re going to be solved at the individual level而是通过在个人层面解决 by decisions we make about the appliances we buy and the kinds of gardens we plant.通过关于购买家电和养护花园的决定来解决 It’s going to be solved at the community level通过在社区层面解决 by decisions about how we manage our storm water,and our local streams, and our local rivers.通过如何处理雨水 当地溪流河流的决定来解决 We don’t need to reinvent the wheel.我们不用做无用功 Many other cities and countries have gone through this.很多城市和国家已经有过这样的经历 The future has arrived in some of them.通过它们 我们已经看到了水的未来 And we can learn from their future for our future.为了我们的未来 我们要向那些城市和国家学习
  • 2021-09-03英国的高铁为什么会失败?This video was made possible by SkillShare,本视频由SkillShare赞助 home to over 28,000 classes that’ll teach you just about anything.该网站拥有超过28000个课程 涵盖各类学科 In 1969, Britain set out to1969年 英国人开始着手制造 build a train unlike any other,与其它火车不同的高速列车 a high speed train that wouldn’t need to run on a high speed railway.这种高速列车不需要在高速轨道中行驶 When everyone else was pouring billions into constructing new smooth and straight high-speed rail lines,当其它国家花费大量投资建设全新的平直高速铁轨 the British would instead design a train英国人则相反 设计一种能在 that could reach incredible speeds on any kind of track.任意轨道上高速行驶的列车 even twisting and winding railways built a hundred years earlier.即使在这种一百年前铺设的蜿蜒曲折的轨道上 Because this train would lean into corners, like a motorcycle.因为这种列车可以像摩托车一样压弯 And it promised to bring Britain’s antiquated railways into the 20st century.这种列车有望在英国老旧的铁路上也能正常运行 It’s smooth, quiet, and an altogether delightful experience.这是一次舒适安静 身心愉悦的乘车体验 Everything that the developers and designers told me that工程开发人员和设计人员告诉我 the train should do,高速列车应该具备的功能 it does appear to do,它都具备了 and does it exceptionally well.并且可以说是超乎寻常 This was going to be the Advanced Passenger Train,这就是高速客运列车 and in an era of automobiles and jet travel,在汽车和飞机出行占据主流的时代 it was going to save Britain’s railways.高速客运列车将挽回英国的铁路发展颓势 高速客运列车 In the 1960’s, Britain’s railways were in trouble.20世纪60年代 英国铁路系统陷入困境 After declining for decades,英国铁路在长达数十年的衰退后 there were fewer people riding trains in 1965 than there were back in 1890.1965年选择火车出行的人数比1890更少 And rail lines around the country were shutting down.英国关闭了国内周边的铁路线路 The problem was, Britain’s railways were slow and antiquated.这是因为英国铁路线路老旧 通勤效率过低 Steam locomotives were still in use well into the1960’s.到了20世纪60年代 火车还在使用蒸汽机当火车头 And that stood in contrast against可是与之形成对比的是 the exciting freedom of automobiles汽车出行给人们带来自由自在的兴奋感觉 and the speed and glamor of jet powered air travel.喷气式飞机给人们快捷高效的空乘体验 充满吸引力 If British Rail was going to compete in this new era,如果要在新的时代保持竞争力 they’d need much faster trains.英国铁路公司需要速度更快的列车 Because elsewhere in the world,因为在世界其它国家 high speed rail was proving that it could win back passengers.高速列车已经成功获得乘客的青睐 Japan’s new Bullet Trains were an instant success,日本新干线在短时间内获得成功 carrying over 100 million passengers in just the first three years of service.在运行头三年 发送旅客量就超过一亿人次 But high speed trains need special tracks,不过高速列车的铁轨比较特殊 long straight sections of rail and gentle curves.铁轨要尽量四平八直 转弯半径要大 And to get their bullet trains to work,为了让新干线能够顺利运行 the Japanese built an entirely new high-speed rail line,日本建造了全新的高速铁轨 constructing thousands of bridges and tunneling right through mountains.同时配套建设了成千上万的桥梁和隧道 For their TGV, the French would end up doing much the same,为了建设法国高铁 法国在也做了类似的准备工作 building hundreds of kilometers of high speed track.法国建造了数百公里的高速铁轨 But in Britain, there wasn’t going to be any new railway.但是英国没有修建任何新铁路 For one, the country already had a vast rail network.一部分是因为英国早已拥有庞大铁路网络 And with ridership declining, much of it was underutilized.并且随着客流量减少 大部分铁路线路闲置 So the British set out to engineer a new kind of high speed train因此英国人着手设计新的高速列车 one that would run on Britain’s existing railways.这种高速列车不需要建设新的铁轨 But it wasn’t going to be easy.但是这个工作并不简单 Britain’s 100 year old rail network was full of twists and turns,英国百年老旧的铁路蜿蜒曲折 弯道还多 and a train can only round a bend so fast列车的速度受转弯限制 before the ride becomes too uncomfortable.转弯太快会引起乘客不适 Because lateral forces can send items flying off tables,离心力太大 车厢桌子上的东西容易飞出去 or even knock passengers off their feet.甚至乘客也会因此也会摔倒 The Japanese and French built their new high speed railways with gentle, banked curves to minimize these lateral forces.日本和法国通过加大转弯半径 使铁轨倾斜一定角度来减小离心力的影响 But the British, would come up with a brilliant alternative.但英国人想到了一个很好的替代方案 Instead of building tilted tracks, they’d engineer a tilting train.与其倾斜轨道 不如让列车倾斜 By leaning the rail cars into curves, like a motorcycle,像摩托车压弯一样 列车通过倾斜一定角度驶过弯道 lateral forces on passengers could be minimized, or even eliminated altogether.这样可以最大程度减少乘客受到的离心力 完全消除也是有可能的 And British Rail would pioneer the world’s first active tilting system.英国铁路公司将率先使用世界上首个主动倾斜系统 Unlike earlier tilting suspensions,与早先的倾斜悬浮车厢不同 it would use computers and sensors to read forces,该系统能使用计算机和传感器读取作用力参数 and hydraulic rams to actively tilt each rail car.并使用液压油缸来根据这些参数使每个车厢相应倾斜 It took British Rail nearly two decades to develop the technologies,英国铁路公司花了将近二十年研发该技术 but by 1979, they had built train unlike any in British history.到了1979年 英国史上第一辆新式列车下线 It would be called the Advanced Passenger Train.它被称为高速客运列车 Driven by eight traction motors housed in central power cars,这款列车由8台位于中心车厢的牵引电机驱动 the APT produced a total of 8000 horsepower,输出马力为8000匹 making it the most powerful domestic train to ever operate in Britain.是英国性能最强大的高速列车 With its advanced braking system,有了先进的制动系统 the APT could quickly decelerate from high speeds高速客运列车能够迅速减速 allowing it to work with Britain’s outdated signaling system.这样在老旧的信号系统下运作也能游刃有余 And with active tilting,在主动倾斜系统的支持下 it could round a bend nearly twice as fast as any British train.它能以接近现有列车两倍的速度转弯 And during testing in 1979, the APT hit 261 km/h,在1979年的测试中 这款列车时速达261km/h setting a new British speed record.创造了英国列车速度的新纪录 One that would hold for another 23 years.这个记录保持了23年 Britain’s new train, was going to revolutionize its railways,英国的新式列车即将带来一场铁路革命 and there were plans to build a fleet of over 50.英国计划打造50组高速客运列车投入使用 But when the APT entered service as a prototype但是 在1981年12月7日 on December 7th 1981,这款列车作为原型车投入运行后 almost overnight it went from being heralded as the train of the future,几乎一夜之间 它从新式列车的象征 to the subject of intense media ridicule.沦为媒体的笑柄 The train was plagued by technical problems.高速客运列车因技术问题陷入舆论焦点 Everything from frozen breaks to failed tilting mechanisms.制动失灵 倾斜系统失控等问题一一显露出来 And on the third day of service,在运行的第三天 one even broke down其中一辆列车甚至在 on the way from Glasgow to London.格拉斯哥到伦敦的路上因故停车 But most embarrassing,最令人尴尬的是 the tilt caused nearly a third of passengers to become motion sick.列车的倾斜系统导致近1/3的旅客晕车 So bad were the problems,这些问题确实很严重 that after just a couple weeks,仅仅两个星期之后 British Rail was forced to pull the APT from service.英国铁路公司被迫停止高速客运列车的运行 It would take another three years of development and testing为了解决这些问题 just sort out all of the issues.英国又花了三年时间去研究和测试 In the meantime, British Rail tried to fight back against the negative press.与此同时 英国铁路公司也试图回击负面舆论 Like in this promotional video featuring rattling dishes就像宣传片中看到的咯吱作响的餐具 and a cup of coffee on the verge spilling.和快要溢出的咖啡 The conventional service from Glasgow to Houston is good.从格拉斯哥到休斯顿的乘车体验很不错 There’s not a patch on this.可以说是完美无缺 It’s smooth, quiet, and an altogether delightful experience.这是一次舒适安静 身心愉悦的乘车感受 Everything that the developers and designers told me工程开发和设计人员告诉我 that the train should do, it does appear to do,高速列车应该具备的功能 它完全具备了 and does it exceptionally well.可以说是超乎寻常 But the press had already written the APT’s obituary.然而新闻媒体早已宣判了列车的死刑 The train had been put into service before it was ready.高速客运列车实验论证不够充分情况下就投入使用 Over 15 years and 50 million pounds had gone into development.15年来 英国投入5千万英镑资金进行研发 But designing a 250 km/h train但是设计时速为250km/h to run on an antiquated rail network且能在老旧的铁路网上运行的列车 proved too ambitious for British Rail.对英国来说有点力不从心 The APT was supposed to enter service as early as 1976,英国高速客运列车计划在1976年便投入运行 but with so many novel features needing但突然间要增加这么多新的功能需求 development all at once, the program was difficult to manage.该项目很难继续推进下去 And it was plagued by technical hurdles, delays,技术难题 工程延期等困难拖后了项目进展 and in some cases, complete redesigns.某种程度而言 它需要全新的设计 And the APT wasn’t adequately tested,这款高速客运列车没有进行充分测试 moving from the experimental stage to a fully functional从实验阶段到功能齐全的原型车下线 prototype after having run just 37 thousand kilometers.它只运行了短短的3万7千公里 Meanwhile, in testing their TGV,然而 法国人为了测试他们的高速列车 the French racked up nearly a half a million kilometers.积累了近50万公里的运行里程 And even as the experimental APT was beginning to prove itself,英国高速列车在实验阶段开始测试时 many within British Rail很多英国铁路公司的人 were hostile towards the program,都强烈反对该项计划 preferring conventional rail technologies他们更喜欢传统的铁路技术 over such a revolutionary leap.而非颠覆性的改变 So British Rail split its resources因此 英国铁路公司拨出一部分资源 and began developing a more conventional, and not quite as fast diesel train研发更传统 速度相对较慢的 without active tilting.也没有倾斜系统的柴油列车 Throw in labor disputes, quality control issues,但这个项目又陷入了劳动纠纷 品控问题 and wavering political support,政策摇摆等泥潭 and the entire program might’ve been doomed from the start.整个项目可能从一开始就注定失败 By 1980, Britain was in an economic recession.到了1980年 英国经济陷入衰退 And with the APT program at risk of being cancelled altogether,高速客运列车项目面临全部撤销的风险 the prototype trains were rushed into service.原型车被迫匆忙投入运行 When it was reintroduced again three years later in 1984,三年后的1984年 它再次进入公众视野 the active tilt had been modified研发人员改良了主动倾斜系统 to reduce motion sickness and the trains proved reliable in service.减少了乘客晕车状况 运行也稳定可靠 But none of that mattered.但这些都无关紧要 Because the APT could never operate to its full potential,因为高速客运列车不能全速运行 having to share tracks with它所运行的线路上也有普快列车 slower trains and overhead electrical lines that weren’t designed for higher speeds.使用的电气化线路也不和高速列车配套 The APT was held back by the very same outdated rail network高速客运列车的速度被同样过时的铁路网限制 that it was supposed to overcome.而这本来是它应该要克服的问题 With little will to develop it any further,因为各方没有进一步研发的意愿 the APT was quietly removed from service in 1986.1986年 高速客运列车悄悄的停止了营运 But there’s a final twist of irony in the APT’s story.但在英国高速客运列车的发展史中还有令人啼笑皆非的一慕 Because in 1982, British Rail sold patents1982年 英国铁路公司将倾斜系统的技术专利 for its tilting technology to Italy’s Fiat,出售给了意大利菲亚特公司 who were developing an active tilting train of their own.意大利人则在此基础上研发自己的主动倾斜系统列车 In 2002, Italian designed tilting trains were2002年 意大利人设计的 reintroduced to Britain’s railways.具备主动倾斜列车重新被引入英国 Today,they operate along the London to Glasgow route,如今 这辆列车运行在伦敦到格拉斯哥的线路上 which is the exact same route the APT was once supposed to serve.这条线路恰好是英国高速客运列车规划时要运行的线路 Starting this YouTube channel开设这个YouTube频道已经成为 has been one of the most rewarding things I’ve ever done.我做过的最有成就感的事情之一 Not a day goes by where I don’t look forward to working on the next mustard video.每一天 我都在为下一个有趣的视频做准备 Because I can’t think of anything more rewarding我认为做一些有创意的事 than doing something creative and sharing it with the world.把它分享给全世界 是最有成就感的事 If you’ve been thinking about starting your own channel, do it.如果你想开启自己的频道 就去做吧 Because the demand for high quality YouTube content is growing every day.对高质量视频内容的需求会日益增加 But a lot goes into a making videos that people actually want to watch.但是做人们想看的视频还是要花些功夫的 So I’d start by learning directly所以我直接向 from YouTube’s top creators.YouYube顶尖创作人学习视频制作 And SkillShare offers fantastic classes thatSkillShare网站为大家提供了精彩的课程 will teach you everything you need to know教你如何选择恰当话题 如何研究 如何叙述 from how to pick the right topics, to research, storytelling, audio and animation.如何制作音频动画等 所需要掌握的技能 With over 28 thousand SkillShare classesSkillShare拥有超过28000节可供购买的课程 on offer.covering just about anything you think of,涵盖了所有你能想到的内容 you can jump right in and learn whatever is you want to learn.你可以挑选任何你想学的内容 And the best part?最精彩的是什么呢? A premium subscription to SkillShare is less than $10 a month.SkillShare的精品节目每月订阅价格不到10美元 But if you’re one of the first 500 people to sign up using the link in the description below,使用下方链接注册的前500个用户 you get 2 months for absolutely free.还可以获得两个月的免费权限
  • 2021-09-03用碳纳米管制造的神奇超黑材料What you’re seeing here is an optical illusion,你现在看到的是一种视错觉现象 but it’s not the kind that tricks your brain into seeing something that isn’t there.但这不是大脑产生幻觉 看到实际不存在的东西 This literally prevents your eyes from seeing something that is there.而是实际存在的东西 你的眼睛却看不到 The mask on the table here is coated桌上的面具覆有涂层 with a bizarre compound called Vantablack,这是一种叫Vantablack的奇特化合物 which is known as one of the darkest materials on the planet.被认为是世界上最黑的材料之一 Remarkable as Vantablack is,Vantablack如今受到广泛关注 it’s actually a happy accident.而它的发现却源于一个有趣的意外 The researchers who created it were working with a material that holds much broader promises.当时科研人员正在研究一种更有前景的材料 It’s a material that was supposed to change the world a few times over.这种材料曾多次被认为可以改变世界 Looks like a simple black powder,它看起来像普通的黑色粉末 but it may as well be gold.但它却可能像金子一样珍贵 That hasn’t quite happened yet,这种事不怎么发生 but the researchers did create a sensation that no one saw coming但研究人员确实引发了未曾预料到的轰动 and a substance that’s pretty hard to see at all.他们研发了一种几乎不能被看到的物质 《边缘科学》 Vantablack is developed by a company based in the UK called Surrey NanoSystems.Vantablack由英国公司Surrey Nanosystems研发 Ben Jensen is the company’s founder.本·詹森是该公司的创始人 My role at Surrey NanoSystems is to lead the science and development of our super black coatings.我在公司的角色是引领超黑涂层的研究与发展 Those are coatings that range with reflectancies这些涂层的反射率 from 1% down to almost unmeasurable.从几乎不反光到反射率1% Here’s what that means.这就是它的意义所在 At a very basic level,通常情况下 we see an object我们看到一个物体 because light reflects off of it and it hits our eyes.是由于光照到物体反射进入我们的眼睛 The more light that is absorbed越多的光被吸收 rather than reflected back at us而不反射给我们时 the darker the object.物体就越黑 Vantablack works by coating object in a mess of microscopic structures.Vantablack通过给物体涂上微观结构层来发挥作用 One varion is laid out by a thicket of aligned hairs,这种微观结构看起来像整齐的毛发 while another is arranged more like a coral.而另一种的结构更像珊瑚 In either case,无论哪种结构 the structures act like a maze for incoming photons.对入射光子来说都像是迷宫 Photons can get into and be trapped and absorbed,光子进入后会被捕捉并被吸收 so that means when you look at it,所以这意味着当你看它时 so little light comes back to your eyes that 只有极少的光线会反射到你的眼睛里 you see absolutely nothing.以至于你什么也看不见 It’s just a black surface, 甚至涂在三维结构物表面 even when it’s coated onto a three-dimensional structure.你也只能看到一个黑色的表面 Now, Ben didn’t set out to enter the Guinness Book of World Records for black paint.本没有去吉尼斯申请这种黑色涂料的世界记录 As far back as 2007, he’d been chasing自2007年起 他就一直想解决 a very particular white whale of material science,材料科学领域的一道难题 carbon nanotubes,它就是碳纳米管 and he wasn’t the only one.他并不是唯一一个为此努力的人 Ah, this was a very exciting time and啊 这是一个令人激动的时刻 it was new and the expectations were very high.它是种新材料 我们对它的期望很高 Boris Yakobson is a professor at Rice UniversityBoris Yakobson是莱斯大学的教授 who has been working on carbon nanotubes1995年以来 也就是他们发现碳纳米管的几年后 since 1995, just a few years after their discovery.他一直从事碳纳米管的研究 Nanotubes are as small as they sound.纳米管就如它的名字一样 听起来就感觉很小 Carbon cylinders with walls as thin as one atom.碳管壁薄如一个原子 If you unfurl the nanotube, you would get another将纳米管展开 可以得到另一种 extremely promising and hyped material,未来非常有前景的材料 Graphene.石墨烯 And like Graphene they come with an exciting list of theoretical uses,理论上 石墨烯会带来一系列令人惊喜的用途 as a semiconductor that out performs silicon比如 作为一种半导体 它胜过硅 or as a building material而作为建材 with unparalleled lightness and tensile strength.它具有超轻的质量和超高的强度 Bridges..I mean it is not realized yet虽然还没能实际应用 but flying vehicles, space ships..但在桥梁 飞行器 太空飞船等都将有应用前景 Or in extreme imaginings,elevators to space.或更极端大胆的想象 通往太空的电梯 They have this article written long ago他们很久以前写了这篇文章 This is a space with a great image.这是一个充满想象的空间 This is a cover of a magazine.这是一本杂志的封面 Like Graphene though,如同石墨烯 the promise of carbon nanotubes纳米碳管未来的前景 hasn’t always meshed with the realities of research and development.并不能总是与研究开发的现实相吻合 Producing them is actually pretty doable,而事实上 生产它们的确是可行的 but getting perfectly formed nanotubes at high volume但想要得到完美成型的大量的纳米管 is another story.就是另一回事了 You can do it.你可以做到的 You can produce many tons of nanotubes,你可以制造大量纳米管 but they maybe in bad quality or not processable但它们很可能质量很差或者根本无法加工 Which is difficult to convert into something useful,所以它们很难变为有用的东西 because you cannot bring to people one nanotube因为你不能只给人们一根纳米管 and say “Enjoy”.然后说“拿去用吧” Carbon nanotubes have found their way into some industries.碳纳米管已经在一些产业里得以应用 They fortify sports equipment like tennis rackets它们用于加固像网球拍这样的运动装备 and help to shield spacecraft.同样 还可以保护宇宙飞船免受辐射 Nanotubes are also showing up in transistors纳米管也出现在晶体管 and lithium ion batteries.和锂离子电池中 That’s actually where Ben began his work这正是本开始工作的地方 trying to integrate nannotubes into semi-conductor technology,他尝试着将碳纳米管集成到半导体技术中 but the equipment they built to grow the nanotubes但他们用来制造纳米管的设备 proved useful for something else entirely.被证明完全可以用于其他地方 It was really serendipity.这真是意外 It’s kind of like, you know,你知道的 这就像 we grew this materials in partnership with a National Physical Laboratory as a test to make我们和一家国际物理实验室合作 something with a reflectance of about 1 %.研发反射率接近1%的材料 and then all of a sudden they came back to us然后他们突然回来找到我们 and said this is almost immeasurably black,说这是几乎无法测量的黑色 and that’s when we knew we had really nailed it.那时我们才知道自己是真的搞定了 The trick is that carbon nanotubes are great for building those complex microscopic structures,碳纳米管的神奇在于它很适合构建复杂的微观结构 the nanoforests in coral reefs that纳米森林和珊瑚礁结构 trap photons so effectively.能有效的捕获光子 They weren’t the first.这不是第一次了 NASA has been chasing ultra black materials美国宇航局已经寻求超黑物质 for some time,有一段时间了 but Vantablack can be applied to materials但是和以前的物质相比 at much lower temperatures than previous effortsVantablack能应用于温度更低的材料 Some can be sprayed on at room temperature同样也可以在室温时喷上 which opens up a much wider variety of applications,这开辟了更广阔的应用空间 but what are the applications?那么这些应用又在哪里呢? For starters,首先 it is useful whenever you are dealing with more light than you want它可以用来处理多余光线 and that actually happens a lot in space.这在太空是经常发生的 So for example in space,在太空 every body thinks it’s kinda dark up there,大家都认为这里是漆黑一片 but actually it’s incredibly bright.但事实上太空中非常亮 You look at an astronaut doing a space walk,你看到在太空行走的宇航员 almost glowing white.几乎发着白光 That’s because the sun is not being absorbed by the earth’s atmosphere那是因为太阳光没有被地球的大气层吸收 and it’s brilliantly bright up there让它在这里特别亮 so one of the main applications所以这种材料的主要用途之一 is absorbing the stray light from the sun, the moon and the earth就是吸收来自太阳 月亮和地球的漫射光 so telescopes and camera systems can see这样望远镜和摄像系统 the stars in much better detail.就能更加清晰地观测到其他星球 Here on earth,在地球 Vantablack can be used in other lensesVantablack可以应用在一些镜头上 to help camera operators capture bright light sources without washing the image out.来帮助摄影师捕获明亮的光源而不过曝 But if they are taking a tracking shot across the sun但如果他们在进行跟踪摄影时越过太阳 or shooting into the sun.或对着太阳拍照 then you get something called ghosting within the lens system,你就会在镜头里看到重影 and we use Vantablack in commercial lens systems我们把Vantablack用于商业镜头中 to eliminate that ghosting artifact that you get.它可以消除你拍到的重影 And then there are the less technical uses.还有一些技术性没那么强的用途 Vantablack has been used to promoteVantablack可以被用来 a videogame inside an all black room,让黑房间里的电子游戏有更好的效果 and to boost contrast on a $ 95,000 watch face.用在95000美元的手表上增加对比度 There is also artist Anish Kapoor,还有艺术家阿尼什•卡布尔 who painted a large hole with Vantablack在一个画展上 for an art installation他用Vantablack画了一个洞 which someone promptly fell into.这个洞看起来非常真实 Vantablack has become so popular thatVantablack如此流行 the company developed a new formulation VBX该公司又研发了一种新材料VBX that doesn’t use carbon nanotubes at all不再使用碳纳米管 Nanotubes,themselves, maybe damaging to your lungs碳纳米管这种材料如果被人体吸入肺中 if you inhale them可能会导致肺损伤 so VBX is a safer alternative.所以用VBX是一种更安全的选择 But it’s notable that carbon nanotubes launched a whole new business但值得注意的是碳纳米管开创的是一项全新的领域 that is now leaving them behind.如今正把他们甩在身后 I think it’s amazing watching people’s reactions every time.我觉得每次看到人们的反应很神奇 It doesn’t matter how often they see it,不管看了多少次 people will just go “I gotta look at it again”.都只会说“我要再看它一遍” It’s hard to communicate the unique strangeness of Vantablack with video.在视频中很难展示出Vantablack独特的神秘感 On a screen you just kinda在屏幕上你仅仅只能 see a cutout of where the object should be看到物体的平面图 but so much of Vantablack’s popularity Vantablack的流行 clearly comes down to the affect that it has on people.显然很大程度上在于它对人们造成的感官影响 Our producer, Sophie,我们的制作人 Sophie was on the shoot at Surrey Nanosystems in the UK在英国萨里纳米系统公司拍摄这些视频 and we asked her what it looked like in person.我们问问在她看来Vantablack怎么样 I thought I was like….我认为…… I did a lot of research before I went在去之前我做了大量研究 so I knew what I was getting myself into.所以我知道自己将看到什么 And then you see it,然后你就看到了它 and you know what you’re going to see,并且你知道你将要看到什么 and it still messes with you.但是它仍然会使你无法理解
  • 2021-08-28寻找外星人之军事基地嗨 比尔Hey Bill. 网上有很多声称是外星飞行物的视频So there are many videos online claiming to be extraterrestrial sightings. 有时政府似乎知道外星生物存在却封锁消息At times it seems that the government is aware of extraterrestrials yet they reject the idea. 或许他们担心这一消息会使我们的日常生活产生巨变而有意向我们Possibly they’re hiding the truth from us in fear of the knowledge greatly changing 隐瞒事实our daily lives. 你认为真的有外星人吗 真的有的话 你会告诉我们吗Do you believe these aliens exist and if so would you tell us? 不 我不相信真的有外星人来访 也不相信政府在知道外星人访问后会No I don’t believe the aliens exist coming to visit you and the government knows about 不告诉你们it and hasn’t told you. 不会的No. 我确定Sure with that. 两件事可以证明Two more things. 首先在1947年整个外星工程已经全部竣工First of all the whole alien thing really got revved up in 1947. 曾经有一个叫天钩的项目 美国There was a project called Sky Hook and the U.S. 政府拥有异常高端的超高海拔气球并且他们为了监听Government had these very cool super high altitude balloons and they were going to have 核武器试验 将在前苏联东海岸外制作像星群一样多的气球a constellation of them or an armada of these balloons off the East Coast of the former 或者组建一个气球无敌舰队Soviet Union with microphones tuned to listen for nuclear weapons tests. 这会是一件轰动的大事This was going to be big fun. 他们还会在美国新墨西哥州检验(设备) 检验过程复杂 大风And so they were testing the balloon in New Mexico and it was complicated and the winds 把气球刮得到处飞 (在天上)互相碰撞 一切检验都不切实际blew the thing around and it crashed and it was impractical. 这个想法很好但完全是一个行不通的战略The idea was kind of cool but it was a cold war idea that just didn’t work. 现在这个项目是一个秘密 是的 政府人员让我们看见的是Now this project was secret. So yes, government people showed up 美国陆军打扫并且清除了所有撞击碎片后的场地 因为这是一个the U.S. Army swept up all the debris from the crash and took it away because it was 秘密secret. 他们还在同一地区的高空进行假人跳伞And they also experimented with parachuting dummies from very high altitudes in the same 测试area. 这已经引起了现在这些关于外星人的谬论 而政府了解(这件)事情And this has led to all these fabulous myths about aliens and the government knows stuff 你不知道you don’t 现在我看起来像个小人物 但我管理的工作职责在他们几个之上Now I look like nobody and I am but I had an engineering job, several of them over the 很多年 其中一个项目是安全清除任务years, and during one of them I had security clearance. 我在一个隐蔽的飞机上工作过一段时间 从来不可以私自行动 但是And I worked on a secret airplane for a little while and I never went myself but I worked 和我一起工作的那几个家伙 都是男人 他们会去位于内华达州空军机地51区的with several guys, they were all men, who went to Area 51 to Groom Lake which is an 格鲁姆湖 那就是我们的飞机秘密飞行的那一带Air Force base in Nevada where we fly around these secret airplanes. 那是真正的秘密基地And it’s a real place. 这些人去的就是那 我在那工作的时候 那个项目叫五级安全清除计划And these guys went there and when I was doing it it was called level five security clearance. 我只能接触四级的任务I only had level four. 从来都没去过格鲁姆湖I never went to Groom Lake. 但是关于飞机的速度 他们守口如瓶But the big thing they wouldn’t talk about was how fast these planes could go. 那是高级机密That was a big secret. 但无论如何这些人都是在战机F117上秘密工作的But anyway these are people that worked on the F117, a stealth fighter. 如果你去过俄亥俄州的话 你就可以看见拥抱蓝天秘密战机If you ever go to the Air Force Museum in Ohio you can see the Have Blue secret planes, 非常棒very cool. 我小时候一直想为什么不把间谍机喷成浅蓝色让它As a kid I always asked myself why don’t they paint spy planes light blue to blend 和蓝天混为一体in with the blue sky. 或许(有一天)会的Well sometimes they do. 不管怎样 现在你能在那看见秘密飞机Anyway you can see one of those there. 政府完全以为这是一个神话So it’s a complete myth that the government knows. 所以想想政府要保守任何秘密得有多难Just think how hard it is for the government to keep anything secret. 恕我直言 保守秘密这方面政府做的有一点差With all due the government kind of sucks at keeping secrets. 所以他们无法在10000人中保守秘密So they couldn’t possibly keep the secret with 10,000 people in on it. 那么我们暂且先不谈这个了So let’s just set that aside. 话虽如此 当我们在火星上发现生命或生物迹象时But with that said you may very well be alive when we discover life or evidence of life 你很可能还活着rather on Mars. 这一定就是外星生物了This would literally be alien life. 如果我们发现了外星人 发现了一些古代的微生物仍然活在火星的If we find it, if we find some ancient microbes still alive in some icy layer under the Martian 冰层里的话 那将会改变整个世界sand it would change the world. 它会改变每个人对生物的看法It would change the way everybody thinks about being a living thing. 如果外星人存在的话他们有DNA吗或者说他们变成化石后Do these things on Mars if they exist do they have DNA or did they have DNA if they have 有DNA吗been fossilized? 或者他们完全是我们从未研究过的另一种生命体Or are they a whole other completely different type of life that we’ve never thought of. 生命是在火星上起源的吗Did life start on Mars? 火星被撞击后 你我都是火星人的后代吗Mars got hit with an impactor and you and I are a descendent of Martians? 这太不可思议了That is amazing. 但不疯狂It’s not crazy. 奇特但不疯狂It’s extraordinary but it’s not crazy. 此外 当我们送你到木星卫星时 你可能会活着Then furthermore you may be alive when we send mission to the moon of Jupiter called 木星卫星的海水是地球海水两倍Europa which has at least twice as much seawater as the earth. 当这些海水储存了45亿年之后 欧罗巴上还有生命吗When you have seawater for 4.5 billion years is there something alive on Europa? 哇 如果真的有外星人Whoa like dude, that’s out there. 那会颠覆全人类It would change the world. 完全地颠覆全人类It would utterly change the world. 对这些真正的外星生活的探索需要肯投入精神财富和物质财富的的人和(对外星人)强烈好奇的人This would be real alien life discovered with tax dollars by people who are intellectually 的额外费用来支持对宇宙近地行星curious who decide to devote some of our intellect and treasure to exploring our nearby planetary 的探索worlds. 那才是我真正鼓励和支持你去追寻的事情And that’s the real stuff that I encourage you to support and follow. 因此我支持你加入行星协会And for that of course I encourage you to join the Planetary Society. 考虑一下吧Think about that. 你不用(觉得)一定要加入 只是建议而已 因为我们积极提倡You don’t have to, I’m just suggesting because we really do advocate for the real 在近地宇宙对外星生命进行实质性探索exploration of nearby worlds really looking for alien life. 同时James Webb太空望远镜也会在2018年发射 它或许能—Also the James Webb space telescope is going to launch in 2018 and it may have the capability 我们希望它可以通过穿过大气层的行星轨迹的星光– it is hoped that it will have the capability of exploring atmospheres of extraordinarily 来探索那些离我们很远的distant planets by having sunlight from those stars that those planets orbit pass through 行星the atmospheres. 如果我们能探测到水蒸气和甲烷 也许那意味着终有一天我们能发现If we detect water vapor and methane it may mean some day that we’ve detected evidence 另一个世界生命存在的证据of life on another world. 加油加油加油加油—加油加油加油加油Do, do, do, do – do, do, do, do. 我说的所有事都是真的 对外星人的实质探索比It’s all the real stuff is what I’m saying, the real exploration for alien life is more 猜测所谓内华达州空军基地(的存在性)有趣得多exciting than speculating about a nominally secret Air Force base in Nevada. 继续探索吧Carry on.
  • 2021-08-27神秘南极深海与气候变化的奥秘我是一位海洋化学家Well, I’m an ocean chemist. 我研究现代海洋的化学特性I look at the chemistry of the ocean today. 我也研究古代海洋的化学特性I look at the chemistry of the ocean in the past. 我研究古代海洋的方式The way I look back in the past 是借助深海珊瑚的化石遗体is by using the fossilized remains of deepwater corals. 各位可以在我的背后看到这样一张图片You can see an image of one of these corals behind me. 这是在南极洲附近海平面以下的数千米处采集的It was collected from close to Antarctica, thousands of meters below the sea, 嗯 这些珊瑚跟其他类珊瑚有很大的不同so, very different than the kinds of corals 比如说你去热带度假的时候有幸见到的一些you may have been lucky enough to see if you’ve had a tropical holiday. 我希望这次演讲可以给你带来So I’m hoping that this talk will give you 一个四维度考察海洋的视角a four-dimensional view of the ocean. 其中的两个维度 正如这个漂亮的平面图Two dimensions, such as this beautiful two-dimensional image 描述了海平面的温度of the sea surface temperature 这张照片是卫星拍摄的 所以有着极高的空间分辨率is taken using satellite, so it’s got tremendous spatial resolution. 照片的总体特征非常容易理解The overall features are extremely easy to understand. 赤道地区比较温暖 因为接受的日照很多The equatorial regions are warm because there’s more sunlight. 极地比较寒冷 因为接受的日照较少The polar regions are cold because there’s less sunlight. 所以导致了南极洲的土地上 形成巨大的冰盖And that allows big icecaps to build up on Antarctica 同样的还有北半球and up on the Northern atmosphere. 如果你深潜入大海里 或者只是让脚趾头碰到海水If you plunge deep into the sea, or even put your toes in the sea, 你就会知道越深处越寒冷you know it gets colder as you go down, 这主要是因为填充海底沟壑的深海海水and that’s mostly because the deep waters that fill the abyss of the ocean 是来自寒冷的极地地区 而那里的水密度更大come from the cold polar regions where the waters are dense. 如果我们让时光倒流两万年If we travel back in time 20,000 years ago, 整个地球看上去非常不同the earth looked very much different. 我刚刚给你们看的是其中一个巨大变化的漫画示意图And I’ve just given you a cartoon version of one of the major differences 那个时代的景象就像这样you would have seen if you went back that long. 冰盖要比现在大很多The icecaps were much bigger. 它们覆盖了大部分陆地 而且延展到各大洋They covered lots of the continent, they extended out over the ocean. 海平面比现在低了120米Sea level was 120 meters lower, 二氧化碳水平比现在要低很多carbon dioxide were very much lower than they are today. 地球上的平均气温比现在大概要低3到5℃So the earth was probably about three to five degrees colder overall, 而且在极地地区要更加寒冷and much, much colder in the polar regions. 我想要研究清楚的东西What I’m trying to understand, 也是我的同事们想要弄明白的东西and what other colleagues of mine are trying to understand, 是我们地球是如何从寒冷气候条件is how we moved from that cold climate condition 变成今天适宜我们生存的温暖气候条件的to the warm climate condition that we enjoy today. 对冰芯的研究告诉我们We know from ice core research 从寒冷气候到温暖气候的转变 并不是非常平缓的that the transition from these cold conditions to warm conditions 从日光照射的缓慢增长趋势中可以推论出这一点wasn’t smooth, as you might predict from the slow increase in solar radiation. 我们能得出这种结论 是因为如果你在冰盖上钻孔And we know this from ice cores, because if you drill down into ice, 你可以发现按年份分层的冰 就像这幅冰山的图片里you find annual bands of ice, and you can see this in the iceberg. 你可以看到那些蓝白相间的条纹You can see those blue-white layers. 气体被封闭在这些冰芯里 所以我们可以据此测定二氧化碳Gases are trapped in the ice cores, so we can measure CO2 — 因此我们得知以前的二氧化碳水平比现在要低that’s why we know CO2 was lower in the past — 对冰的化学研究也能显示出and the chemistry of the ice also tells us about temperature 极地地区的温度情况in the polar regions. 如果你从两万年前穿越到现代And if you move in time from 20,000 years ago to the modern day, 你会发现气温出现了增长you see that temperature increased. 这种增长不是平缓的It didn’t increase smoothly. 有时候气温上升得非常迅速Sometimes it increased very rapidly, 然后就稳定一段时间then there was a plateau, 之后再次迅速上升then it increased rapidly. 两极地区的气温有些差异It was different in the two polar regions, 而且二氧化碳水平也以这种跳跃方式增长and CO2 also increased in jumps. 我们非常确定的是 海洋与这些变化有着密切联系So we’re pretty sure the ocean has a lot to do with this. 海洋里储存着大量的碳元素The ocean stores huge amounts of carbon, 是大气中碳含量的大约60倍about 60 times more than is in the atmosphere. 海洋还有会跨赤道地区输送热量It also acts to transport heat across the equator, 而且海洋富含养分 它控制着原始生产力and the ocean is full of nutrients and it controls primary productivity. 如果我们想要研究深海世界里发生了什么So if we want to find out what’s going on down in the deep sea, 我们就真的需要潜入其中we really need to get down there, 看看那里有什么see what’s there 并且开始努力探索and start to explore. 这是拍摄于海底山峰的一些精彩镜头This is some spectacular footage coming from a seamount 这个山峰位于赤道地区的公海 而且远离大陆about a kilometer deep in international waters 大概在大西洋底1000米深处in the equatorial Atlantic, far from land. 你们和我的研究团队一样You’re amongst the first people to see this bit of the seafloor, 是第一批欣赏到这片海底的人along with my research team. 你们可能会看到一些新物种You’re probably seeing new species. 我们不太了解We don’t know. 得采集很多样本 然后做非常繁琐的生物学分类才能知道You’d have to collect the samples and do some very intense taxonomy. 你可以看到这些美丽的泡泡糖珊瑚You can see beautiful bubblegum corals. 有柔软的海星长在这些珊瑚上There are brittle stars growing on these corals. 它们看起来就像珊瑚上延伸出的触手一样Those are things that look like tentacles coming out of corals. 这些珊瑚由不同形式的碳酸钙组成There are corals made of different forms of calcium carbonate 在这个巨大的海底山峰的玄武岩上茁壮生长growing off the basalt of this massive undersea mountain, 那些颜色很黑的东西就是变成化石的珊瑚and the dark sort of stuff, those are fossilized corals, 在我们进行时光旅行时and we’re going to talk a little more about those 对于那些还得多说几句as we travel back in time. 首先我们得租一条考察船To do that, we need to charter a research boat. 这是詹姆斯·库克号 一艘大洋级别的调查船This is the James Cook, an ocean-class research vessel 停泊在特纳里夫港口moored up in Tenerife. 看起来很漂亮,对吧?Looks beautiful, right? 如果你不是个很好的海员 你会觉得确实不错Great, if you’re not a great mariner. 但是有时她看起来更像这样Sometimes it looks a little more like this. 我们正在努力确保珍贵的样品不丢失This is us trying to make sure that we don’t lose precious samples. 每个人都手忙脚乱 然后我也严重晕船Everyone’s scurrying around, and I get terribly seasick, 所以说这不全是有趣的经历 但是总体还不错so it’s not always a lot of fun, but overall it is. 我们必须要成为很好的测绘师 才能做这个工作So we’ve got to become a really good mapper to do this. 你不可能随处都能找到 如此丰富的珊瑚储量You don’t see that kind of spectacular coral abundance everywhere. 我们得走遍世界 潜入深海寻找It is global and it is deep, 但是我们必须得找到正确的地方but we need to really find the right places. 我们刚看到的是一幅全景地图We just saw a global map, and overlaid was our cruise passage 画的是我们考察船从去年开始走的线路from last year. 那是一个为期七周的航程This was a seven-week cruise, 这就是我们自己做的地图and this is us, having made our own maps 在七周时间里 我们描绘了大约75,000平方公里的海底地图of about 75,000 square kilometers of the seafloor in seven weeks, 但那也只是整个海底的微小部分but that’s only a tiny fraction of the seafloor. 我们自西向东航行We’re traveling from west to east, 穿过一些在地图上毫无特征的海域over part of the ocean that would look featureless on a big-scale map, 但这里的一些山峰其实可以跟珠峰相提并论but actually some of these mountains are as big as Everest. 我们在船上制作的地图So with the maps that we make on board, 大概有100米左右的分辨率we get about 100-meter resolution, 这已经足够让我们选定地址放置测绘仪器enough to pick out areas to deploy our equipment, 但是想要看得更清楚就还是不够but not enough to see very much. 为了使图像更清晰 我们要操纵遥控的深潜器To do that, we need to fly remotely-operated vehicles 至距离海底5米左右的深处about five meters off the seafloor. 如果我们这么做 我们可以得到 海平面以下数千米处And if we do that, we can get maps that are one-meter resolution 分辨率小至1米的高清图像down thousands of meters. 这就是一台遥控深潜器Here is a remotely-operated vehicle, 一台科研级别的深潜器a research-grade vehicle. 你可以在它顶部看到一排大灯You can see an array of big lights on the top. 上面还有高清摄影机、操纵臂There are high-definition cameras, manipulator arms, 还有各种小盒子、小零件来收集海底样本and lots of little boxes and things to put your samples. 这是我们航程的第一次深潜Here we are on our first dive of this particular cruise, 机器潜到大洋深处plunging down into the ocean. 我们行进得相当快 以确保这个远程控制的机器We go pretty fast to make sure the remotely-operated vehicles 不被其他船只影响are not affected by any other ships. 我们不断下潜And we go down, 这就是你们可以看到的东西and these are the kinds of things you see. 这些是大小达到数米的深海海绵These are deep sea sponges, meter scale. 这是个游动的海参—— 其实是一个小的海蛞蝓This is a swimming holothurian — it’s a small sea slug, basically. 这是慢镜头This is slowed down. 我展示的大部分视频资料都是加速播放的Most of the footage I’m showing you is speeded up, 因为这些过程都耗时很长because all of this takes a lot of time. 这也是一个漂亮的海参This is a beautiful holothurian as well. 接下来你们看到的这个动物是一个很大的惊喜And this animal you’re going to see coming up was a big surprise. 我从没见过这样的东西 我们见了都很吃惊I’ve never seen anything like this and it took us all a bit surprised. 这是历经15小时的工作才拍到的 我们都很激动This was after about 15 hours of work and we were all a bit trigger-happy, 突然 这个庞然大物开始滚动and suddenly this giant sea monster started rolling past. 你可以称它为寄生生物 或者也可以叫它群居尾索动物as called a parasite or colonial tunicate, if you like. 但这都不是我们要找的东西This wasn’t what we were looking for. 我们在搜寻珊瑚 深海里的珊瑚We were looking for corals, deep sea corals. 你们过一会儿就会看到一张珊瑚的照片You’re going to see a picture of one in a moment. 它很小 只有5厘米高It’s small, about five centimeters high. 它是由碳酸钙构成的 你们可以看到它的触手It’s made of calcium carbonate, so you can see its tentacles there, 在洋流之中摆动moving in the ocean currents. 像这样的有机体一般可以存活100年An organism like this probably lives for about a hundred years. 在它生长过程中 它从海洋中吸收化学成分And as it grows, it takes in chemicals from the ocean. 这些化学成分 或是说化学成分的量And the chemicals, or the amount of chemicals, 取决于海水温度 还有pH值depends on the temperature; it depends on the pH, 还取决于水中的养分it depends on the nutrients. 如果我们能弄明白这些化学成分如何进入生物骨架And if we can understand how these chemicals get into the skeleton, 我们就可以采集样本、回溯历史we can then go back, collect fossil specimens, 重现古代海洋的图景and reconstruct what the ocean used to look like in the past. 现在你们可以看到我们在用真空系统收集那个珊瑚样本And here you can see us collecting that coral with a vacuum system, 然后把样本放在容器里and we put it into a sampling container. 这里我补充一下 我们做这些时非常仔细We can do this very carefully, I should add. 这类有机体有些可以活得更久Some of these organisms live even longer. 这是一个叫做海柳的黑珊瑚 这张图片是我的同事布伦达·劳克This is a black coral called amtipathes, an image taken by my colleague, 在夏威夷海底500米处拍摄的Brendan Roark, about 500 meters below Hawaii. 四千年可是很长的时间啊Four thousand years is a long time. 如果你从这种珊瑚中摘取一段枝条 然后把它打磨If you take a branch from one of these corals and polish it up, 这张图横向大约有100微米宽this is about 100 microns across. 布伦达对这个珊瑚做了横切分析And Brendan took some analyses across this coral — 你们可以看到横向的标记you can see the marks — 他由此证明了这其实是珊瑚的年轮and he’s been able to show that these are actual annual bands, 所以说即使在海平面以下500米深处so even at 500 meters deep in the ocean, 珊瑚可以记录季节的更替corals can record seasonal changes, 这其实是挺惊人的which is pretty spectacular. 然而四千年不足以让我们回到最后一个冰川极盛期But 4,000 years is not enough to get us back to our last glacial maximum. 那么我们怎么办呢?So what do we do? 我们潜入海中寻找化石样本We go in for these fossil specimens. 其实这就是为什么我在研究团队里特别不受欢迎This is what makes me really unpopular with my research team. 要潜到海底So going along, 到处都是巨大的鲨鱼there’s giant sharks everywhere, 还有火体虫、游动的海蛞蝓there are pyrosomes, there are swimming holothurians, 以及巨大的海绵there’s giant sponges, 但是我要求每个人都潜到这死气沉沉的化石区but I make everyone go down to these dead fossil areas 然后花很长的时间在海底铲来铲去and spend ages kind of shoveling around on the seafloor. 我们拾取所有的珊瑚样本 把它们带回来然后做分类And we pick up all these corals, bring them back, we sort them out. 但是每一个样本都来自不同的时代But each one of these is a different age, 如果我们可以知道它们有多古老and if we can find out how old they are 我们就可以测定其中的化学信号and then we can measure those chemical signals, 这就可以帮助我们this helps us to find out 研究出古代海洋中发生了怎样的事what’s been going on in the ocean in the past. 请看左侧的照片So on the left-hand image here, 我对珊瑚做了一份纵切片 很仔细地打磨I’ve taken a slice through a coral, polished it very carefully 之后拍摄了光学影像and taken an optical image. 在右侧的照片中On the right-hand side, 我们提取了同一片珊瑚 将它放进核反应堆we’ve taken that same piece of coral, put it in a nuclear reactor, 诱发核裂变反应induced fission, 每一次都会产生一些衰减and every time there’s some decay, 你可以在珊瑚中看到一些标记you can see that marked out in the coral, 我们可以据此判断铀元素的分布情况so we can see the uranium distribution. 我们为什么要这么做呢?Why are we doing this? 铀是一种很不被重视的元素Uranium is a very poorly regarded element, 但是我非常喜欢它but I love it. 这种衰减能帮助我们了解海洋中发生的事情The decay helps us find out about the rates and dates 以及它们发生的速率和日期of what’s going on in the ocean. 如果你们还记得我开头所讲的And if you remember from the beginning, 这就是我们考虑到气候因素时想要得到的结果that’s what we want to get at when we’re thinking about climate. 所以我们用激光分析铀元素So we use a laser to analyze uranium 以及珊瑚中所含的铀的副产物钍元素and one of its daughter products, thorium, in these corals, 由此我们得知这些化石的精确年龄and that tells us exactly how old the fossils are. 这是南极洲上的美丽画面This beautiful animation of the Southern Ocean 我用这个图去阐释我们如何利用这些珊瑚I’m just going to use illustrate how we’re using these corals 来提取古代海洋的反馈信息to get at some of the ancient ocean feedbacks. 这个由莱恩·阿伯纳西制作的动画中You can see the density of the surface water 你们可以看到表面海水的密度分布in this animation by Ryan Abernathey. 这只是一年的数据It’s just one year of data, 但是各位已经可以看出南极洲非常动态的变化but you can see how dynamic the Southern Ocean is. 尤其是方框中的德雷克海峡The intense mixing, particularly the Drake Passage, 这里洋流交汇非常强烈which is shown by the box, 其实是世界上最强的洋流之一is really one of the strongest currents in the world 洋流从西到东穿过海峡coming through here, flowing from west to east. 洋流在此处汹涌地交汇It’s very turbulently mixed, 因为它经过了那些巨大的海底山峰because it’s moving over those great big undersea mountains, 这就让二氧化碳和热量与大气进行交换and this allows CO2 and heat to exchange with the atmosphere in and out. 本质上海洋系统是通过南极洋进行“呼吸”作用And essentially, the oceans are breathing through the Southern Ocean. 我们在这个南极的海峡来回穿行 采集珊瑚样本We’ve collected corals from back and forth across this Antarctic passage, 从我的铀元素年代测定结果 我们得到了很惊人的结论and we’ve found quite a surprising thing from my uranium dating: 从冰期到间冰期的过渡期the corals migrated from south to north 这些珊瑚从南方迁移到了北方during this transition from the glacial to the interglacial. 我们并不知道为什么会这样We don’t really know why, 但是我们认为这与食物来源有一些关联but we think it’s something to do with the food source 也或许是因为水中的氧气and maybe the oxygen in the water. 所以讲到这儿,So here we are. 我要演示一下我认为我们在南部海域的珊瑚上I’m going to illustrate what I think we’ve found about climate 发现的关于气候变化的事实from those corals in the Southern Ocean. 我们在深海山脉里来来回回 收集小的珊瑚化石We went up and down sea mountains. We collected little fossil corals. 这就是我要演示的内容This is my illustration of that. 我们回溯到冰河时代We think back in the glacial, 从我们对珊瑚的分析中发现from the analysis we’ve made in the corals, 南极海洋深处蕴藏相当丰富的碳元素that the deep part of the Southern Ocean was very rich in carbon, 并且有一层低密度海水浮在大洋表面and there was a low-density layer sitting on top. 这就阻止了二氧化碳从海洋中逸出That stops carbon dioxide coming out of the ocean. 我们之后发现了一些中等年龄的珊瑚We then found corals that are of an intermediate age, 它们显示 洋流的激烈交汇发生在气候过渡期的中段and they show us that the ocean mixed partway through that climate transition. 这让深海中的碳元素得以逸出That allows carbon to come out of the deep ocean. 那么如果我们研究更接近现代的珊瑚And then if we analyze corals closer to the modern day, 或者我们干脆马上就潜到海里or indeed if we go down there today anyway 研究珊瑚的化学成分and measure the chemistry of the corals, 我们可以看到 现在是二氧化碳进入进出交换的时代we see that we move to a position where carbon can exchange in and out. 所以这就是我们利用珊瑚化石So this is the way we can use fossil corals 来研究环境演变的方法to help us learn about the environment. 现在我给大家展示最后一张幻灯片So I want to leave you with this last slide. 这是从最开始我播放的视频中截取的一张图片It’s just a still taken out of that first piece of footage that I showed you. 这是一个异常美丽的珊瑚花园This is a spectacular coral garden. 我们根本没有想象到会发现如此美妙的东西We didn’t even expect to find things this beautiful. 这里有数千米深It’s thousands of meters deep. 这里有全新的物种There are new species. 这就是一个美丽的圣地It’s just a beautiful place. 这其中有很多化石There are fossils in amongst, 我已经教大家如何欣赏这些and now I’ve trained you to appreciate the fossil corals 沉睡在海底深处的珊瑚化石that are down there. 所以下一次当你有幸飞过大洋时So next time you’re lucky enough to fly over the ocean 或者是航行在海洋之上or sail over the ocean, 请记得—— 海底世界有崇山峻岭just think — there are massive sea mountains down there 无人领略过它的壮美that nobody’s ever seen before, 海底世界还有美丽的珊瑚and there are beautiful corals. 谢谢各位Thank you. (掌声)(Applause)
  • 2021-08-27不只是星尘,我们从大爆炸而来恒星考古工作围绕这个中心“我们是星尘”The work of stellar archaeology really goes to the heart of the ‘we are stardust’ 和‘我们是星球的孩子’的说法。你可能已经听说过,但and ‘we are children of the stars’ statement. You’ve probably heard it all but what does 它真正意味着什么?我们所有的人类组成和生命的形式我们知道是it actually mean? We are mostly made all humans and all life forms that we know of are made 大部分是由碳和一些非常少量的其它的元素构成的。mostly of carbon and a bunch of other elements but in much lesser quantities. Where does 这些碳来自哪里呢?我们可以说它来自地球而这也确实是真的。this carbon come from? Well you could say it comes from the Earth and yes that is true. 但它是怎样进入地球的呢?而这就是天文学的来源因为But how did it get into the Earth right? And so that is where astronomy comes in because 它们是多样的所以被称作产生元素,重元素的核作用过程there are multiple so called nuclear synthesis processes that create elements, heavy elements. 他们融合更轻的使之为更重的开始成为氢。四个氢原子一起They fuse lighter ones into heavier ones starting with hydrogen. Four hydrogen atoms come together 和熔化成一个氦原子。而如果你使三个氦原子一起你会得到一个碳and fuse into a helium atom. And if you throw three helium atoms together you get a carbon 原子核。而这就是碳怎样产生的和我们建立了碳多少nucleus. And this is how carbon is created and we are establishing how much carbon was 产生多少在宇宙的各个时期和通过这个过程和类型created at various times in the universe and through which processes and in which types 星球的类型和星球所发生进化的进化的阶段of stars and what evolutionary phases of the stars this all happens. 而这就是我们怎样才能够拼凑这些宇宙化学演变And so this is how we can piece together the chemical evolution of the universe that is 这真的是基于地球上所发生的生物的演变。和我发现它真的really the basis for any biological evolution to take place on Earth. And I find it really 令人激动回到和看着生命成分的分离和我们exciting to go back and really look at the constituents of life separately and we have 不仅仅已经研究了碳而且还有氮,磷,硫,氧和铁studies not just carbon but also nitrogen and phosphorus and sulfur and oxygen and iron 这些不同的元素都在我们的恒星考古工作中。事实上,and all the different elements through our work in stellar archaeology. And actually 你会想到我们的身体不仅仅是由碳组成的而且还有许多的if you come to think about it the body is not just made of carbon but also a lot of 水。这些水中的氢和氧而我们知道氧也来自于water. And there is hydrogen and oxygen in the water and well we know oxygen also comes 我们的星球。你添加另外的氦原子到碳原子里而你会得到氧from the stars. You add another helium nucleus to a carbon nucleus and you get an oxygen 原子。至于水,是氢中的氢核。他们所有构成nucleus. But the water, the hydrogen that’s just protons. They were all formed in the 宇宙大爆炸。所以我们只是带着我们身体重量的百分之十这就是宇宙大爆炸Big Bang. So we actually carry about ten percent of our body weight in us that is Big Bang 材料。这些氢核在整个星球中循环了无数次但真正的material. The protons were all recycled numerous times throughout the stars but the actual 氢核是在热的宇宙大爆炸中形成的当所有的亚原子粒子protons were made in the hot Big Bang when all the subatomic particles actually came 集聚在一起和形成氢核还有中子时。因此我们不仅仅是孩子together and formed protons and neutrons. And so that we are not just children of the 在星球中。事实上我们也是孩子在宇宙大爆炸中。我们认为这是好的stars. Actually we are also children of the Big Bang. And I think it’s really nice once 偶尔反省我们意识到我们与宇宙的联系in a while to reflect on that and really realize how much we are actually connected to the 宇宙。cosmos.
  • 2021-08-27我们能编辑记忆吗?|艾米·米尔顿Memory is such an everyday thing记忆是如此日常的存在 that we almost take it for granted.我们几乎将其视为理所当然的事物 We all remember what we had for breakfast this morning我们都记得今天早饭吃了什么 or what we did last weekend.或上周末做了什么 It’s only when memory starts to fail只有当记忆开始衰退时 that we appreciate just how amazing it is我们才会领悟到它有多奇妙 and how much we allow our past experiences to define us.以及我们如何用过往的经历来定义自己 But memory is not always a good thing.但记忆并不总是一件好事 As the American poet and clergyman正如美国诗人兼牧师 John Lancaster Spalding once said,约翰·兰卡斯特·斯伯丁所言 “As memory may be a paradise from which we cannot be driven,“记忆是我们不会被驱逐的天堂 it may also be a hell from which we cannot escape.”也可能是我们无法逃离的地狱” Many of us experience chapters of our lives我们中许多人都会经历一些 that we would prefer to never have happened.我们宁愿从未经历过的人生篇章 It is estimated that nearly 90 percent of us据估计 近90%的人 will experience some sort of traumatic event during our lifetimes.在一生中经历过某种创伤性事件 Many of us will许多人在经历这些事件后 suffer acutely following these events都会深感痛苦 and then recover,然后康复 maybe even become better people because of those experiences.甚至可能因为这些经历 而成为更好的人 But some events are so extreme但有一些极端事件 that many —会导致许多经历者 up to half of those who survive sexual violence, for example —例如 多达一半的性暴力幸存者 will go on to develop post-traumatic stress disorder,患上创伤后应激障碍 or PTSD.即PTSD PTSD is a debilitating mental health conditionPTSD是一种使人虚弱的心理疾病 characterized by symptoms症状特征表现为 such as intense fear and anxiety强烈的恐惧与焦虑 and flashbacks of the traumatic event.以及对创伤性事件的“闪回” These symptoms have a huge impact on a person’s quality of life这些症状会严重影响人的生活质量 and are often triggered by particular situations经常被人们所处环境中的 or cues in that person’s environment.特定情景或信号触发 The responses to those cues人们面对这些信号的反应或许是 may have been adaptive when they were first learned —在第一次遇到时就适应了 fear and diving for cover in a war zone, for example —例如 在战区感到恐惧 卧倒以寻找掩体 but in PTSD,但对于PTSD患者来说 they continue to control behavior即使这些反应不再适用 when it’s no longer appropriate.它们依旧控制着人的行为 If a combat veteran returns home如果一位参战老兵退伍后 and is diving for cover when he or she hears a car backfiring听到汽车回火声时 仍然会卧倒寻求掩护 or can’t leave their own home because of intense anxiety,或是因为重度焦虑无法踏出家门 then the responses to those cues,那么他们对于那些线索 those memories,那些记忆的反应 have become what we would refer to as maladaptive.就是我们所说的“适应不良” In this way, we can think of PTSD因此 我们可以把PTSD视为 as being a disorder of maladaptive memory.由适应不良的记忆引发的障碍 Now, I should stop myself here,现在 我应该就此打住 because I’m talking about memory as if it’s a single thing.因为我一直将记忆当作个体在讨论 It isn’t.而它并非如此 There are many different types of memory,记忆分为很多不同种类 and these depend upon different circuits and regions within the brain.这取决于大脑的不同回路和区域 As you can see,如你所见 there are two major distinctions in our types of memory.我们不同种类的记忆主要有两大类别 There are those memories that we’re consciously aware of,有些记忆 我们是能意识到的 where we know we know我们知道自己有这些记忆 and that we can pass on in words.并且能用语言加以描述 This would include memories for facts and events.其中包括对事实和事件的记忆 Because we can declare these memories,因为我们能阐明这些记忆 we refer to these as declarative memories.所以称之为“陈述性记忆” The other type of memory is non-declarative.另一种记忆是“非陈述性记忆” These are memories where we often don’t have conscious access我们对这类记忆的内容 to the content of those memories一般没有主观意识 and that we can’t pass on in words.也无法用语言加以描述 The classic example of a non-declarative memory非陈述性记忆的一个经典例子是 is the motor skill for riding a bike.骑自行车的运动技能 Now, this being Cambridge,现在 因为这里是剑桥 the odds are that you can ride a bike.所以你大概率会骑自行车 You know what you’re doing on two wheels.你知道自己在两个轮子上该怎么做 But if I asked you to write me a list of instructions但如果我要你写出一个 that would teach me how to ride a bike,教我如何骑自行车的指令清单 as my four-year-old son did就像去年我们给四岁的儿子 when we bought him a bike for his last birthday,买了自行车作为生日礼物时 他问我们的那样 you would really struggle to do that.你会发现其实非常难 How should you sit on the bike so you’re balanced?你该怎样坐在自行车上才能保持平衡? How fast do you need to pedal so you’re stable?你要踩多快才能平稳前进? If a gust of wind comes at you,如果一阵狂风刮向你 which muscles should you tense and by how much你要将哪些肌肉绷紧到什么程度 so that you don’t get blown off?才不会被风吹倒? I’ll be staggered if you can give the answers to those questions.如果你能给出这些问题的答案 我会目瞪口呆 But if you can ride a bike,但如果你会骑自行车 you do have the answers,你一定是有答案的 you’re just not consciously aware of them.你只是没有意识到它们而已 Getting back to PTSD,再说回PTSD another type of non-declarative memory另一种类型的非陈述性记忆 is emotional memory.是“情绪性记忆” Now, this has a specific meaning in psychology这个词在心理学中具有特定含义 and refers to our ability to learn about cues in our environment指我们了解环境中的信号 and their emotional and motivational significance.理解其情感意义和动机意义的能力 What do I mean by that?这是什么意思呢? Well, think of a cue like the smell of baking bread,想象一下某个信号 例如烤面包的气味 or a more abstract cue like a 20-pound note.或是更抽象的信号 例如20英镑纸钞 Because these cues have been pegged with good things in the past,因为这些信号与过往的好事挂钩 we like them and we approach them.所以我们喜欢并愿意接近它们 Other cues, like the buzzing of a wasp,其他信号 例如黄蜂的嗡嗡声 elicit very negative emotions会诱发一些人非常负面的情绪 and quite dramatic avoidance behavior in some people.以及相当夸张的回避行为 Now, I hate wasps.我讨厌黄蜂 I can tell you that fact.我可以告诉你们这个事实 But what I can’t give you但我无法与你们诉说 are the non-declarative emotional memories附近有黄蜂时 我会作何反应 for how I react when there’s a wasp nearby.这种非陈述性情绪记忆 I can’t give you the racing heart,我无法与你分享 心跳加速 the sweaty palms,手心冒汗 that sense of rising panic.那种油然而生的恐惧感 I can describe them to you,我能向你描述它们 but I can’t give them to you.却无法让你感同身受 Now, importantly, from the perspective of PTSD,重点是 从PTSD的角度来说 stress has very different effects on declarative and non-declarative memories压力对陈述性记忆和非陈述性记忆 and the brain circuits and regions supporting them.以及承载它们的脑回路与区域 有非常不同的影响 Emotional memory is supported by a small almond-shaped structure情绪性记忆是由一颗小杏仁状 即“杏仁核”结构 called the amygdala and its connections.以及其神经连接 所支撑的 Declarative memory,陈述性记忆 especially the what, where and when of event memory,尤其是事件记忆的内容 地点和时间 is supported by a seahorse-shaped region of the brain由大脑中的一个海马状区域所支持 called the hippocampus.即“海马体” The extreme levels of stress experienced during trauma在创伤中经历极限水平的压力 have very different effects on these two structures.对这两个结构有非常不同的影响 As you can see,如你所见 as you increase a person’s level of stress当你把一个人所承受的压力水平 from not stressful to slightly stressful,从“无压力”提高到“轻微压力”时 the hippocampus, acting to support the event memory,海马体发挥了支持事件记忆的作用 increases in its activity提升了其活跃度 and works better to support the storage of that declarative memory.以更好地支持对陈述性记忆的存储 But as you increase to moderately stressful, intensely stressful但当你将压力水平增至“中等压力” “强烈压力” and then extremely stressful, as would be found in trauma,然后是创伤应激中会经历的 “极端压力”时 the hippocampus effectively shuts down.海马体实际上关闭了 This means that under the high levels of stress hormones这意味着 在创伤期间经历的 that are experienced during trauma,高浓度压力激素的作用下 we are not storing the details,我们无法储存记忆细节 the specific details of what, where and when.关于事件内容 地点和时间的具体细节记忆 Now, while stress is doing that to the hippocampus,压力会对海马体产生这样的影响 look at what it does to the amygdala,再看看它会如何影响杏仁核 that structure important for the emotional, non-declarative memory.即那个非陈述性情绪记忆的关键结构 Its activity gets stronger and stronger.它的活跃度越来越强 So what this leaves us with in PTSD所以在PTSD中 它给我们留下 is an overly strong emotional —一种过于强烈的情绪记忆 in this case fear — memory在这种情况下是恐惧记忆 that is not tied to a specific time or place,这些记忆与特定时间或地点无关 because the hippocampus is not storing what, where and when.因为海马体没有储存内容 地点或时间的记忆 In this way,这种情况下 these cues can control behavior这些线索会不合时宜地 when it’s no longer appropriate,控制人们的行为 and that’s how they become maladaptive.因而导致适应不良 So if we know如果我们知道了PTSD that PTSD is due to maladaptive memories,是源于适应不良的记忆 can we use that knowledge to improve我们就能利用它来改善 treatment outcomes for patients with PTSD?PTSD患者的治疗效果吗? A radical new approach being developed to treat post-traumatic stress disorder目前新研发的一种彻底治疗PTSD的方法 aims to destroy those maladaptive emotional memories旨在消除那些引起这种障碍的 that underlie the disorder.适应不良的情绪记忆 This approach has only been considered a possibility由于这些年我们对记忆的了解 发生了深刻变化 because of the profound changes in our understanding of memory in recent years.这种方法才被认为是可行的 Traditionally, it was thought that making a memory传统观点认为 创造记忆 was like writing in a notebook in pen:就像用钢笔在笔记本上写字 once the ink had dried,一旦墨水干了 you couldn’t change the information.你就无法再对信息加以修改 It was thought that all those structural changes人们认为 所有在大脑内发生的 that happen in the brain to support the storage of memory支持记忆存储的结构性变化 were finished within about six hours,都是在约六小时内完成的 and after that, they were permanent.在那之后 记忆就是永久性的了 This is known as the consolidation view.这被称为“记忆巩固”理论 However, more recent research suggests that making a memory然而 最近的研究表明 创造记忆 is actually more like writing in a word processor.实际上更像在文本处理器上写字 We initially make the memory我们首先创造记忆 and then we save it or store it.然后保存或存储它 But under the right conditions,但在合适的条件下 we can edit that memory.我们能对它进行编辑 This reconsolidation view suggests that这种“记忆再巩固”理论认为 those structural changes那些在大脑内发生的 that happen in the brain to support memory支持记忆的结构性变化 can be undone,是可以撤销的 even for old memories.甚至对于久远的记忆也是如此 Now, this editing process isn’t happening all the time.这种编辑过程不是一直发生的 It only happens under very specific conditions of memory retrieval.它只发生在记忆检索 这种非常特定的条件下 So let’s consider memory retrieval as being recalling the memory让我们把记忆检索看作重新唤醒记忆 or, like, opening the file.或像是打开文档 Quite often, we are simply retrieving the memory.通常 我们只是简单地检索记忆 We’re opening the file as read-only.就像用只读模式打开文档 But under the right conditions,但在合适的条件下 we can open that file in edit mode,我们就能以编辑模式打开文档 and then we can change the information.然后修改信息 In theory, we could delete the content of that file,理论上 我们可以删除文档内容 and when we press save,然后当我们按下“保存”时 that is how the file — the memory — persists.文档 也就是记忆 将保持此时的状态 Not only does this reconsolidation view这种记忆再巩固的理论 allow us to account for some of the quirks of memory,不仅能让我们理解有关记忆的古怪之处 like how we all sometimes misremember the past,例如我们都曾记错过去的某些事 it also gives us a way to destroy those maladaptive fear memories它还为消除导致PTSD适应不良的恐惧记忆 that underlie PTSD.提供了新方法 All we would need would be two things:我们只需要两样东西: a way of making the memory unstable —一是使记忆不稳定的方法 opening that file in edit mode —即以编辑模式打开文档 and a way to delete the information.二是删除信息的途径 We’ve made the most progress在研究如何删除信息方面 with working out how to delete the information.我们已经取得很大进展 It was found fairly early on很早以前就已经发现 that a drug widely prescribed to control blood pressure in humans —一种被广泛用于控制人类血压的药物 a beta-blocker called Propranolol —即名为“普萘洛尔”的β-受体阻滞剂 could be used to prevent the reconsolidation of fear memories in rats.用在老鼠身上 能阻碍恐惧记忆的再巩固 If Propranolol was given在记忆处于编辑模式时 while the memory was in edit mode,对其使用普萘洛尔 rats behaved as if they were no longer afraid of a frightening trigger cue.老鼠表现得仿佛不再害怕触发恐惧的信号 It was as if they had never learned to be afraid of that cue.仿佛它们从未学会对该信号产生恐惧 And this was with a drug that was safe for use in humans.而且这是一种人类能安全服用的药物 Now, not long after that,在那之后不久 it was shown that Propranolol could destroy fear memories in humans as well,有研究表明 普萘洛尔也能破坏人类的恐惧记忆 but critically,但关键在于 it only works if the memory is in edit mode.该药只在记忆处于编辑模式时才起作用 Now, that study was with healthy human volunteers,虽然这项研究正处于健康人类志愿者实验阶段 but it’s important because it shows that the rat findings但它很重要 因为它表明老鼠身上的研究结果 can be extended to humans and ultimately, to human patients.能外推至人类 且最终应用于人类患者 And with humans,而对于人类 you can test whether destroying the non-declarative emotional memory你能试验 破坏非陈述性情绪记忆 does anything to the declarative event memory.是否会影响陈述性事件记忆 And this is really interesting.这一点非常有趣 Even though people who were given Propranolol尽管在记忆处于编辑模式时 while the memory was in edit mode服用了普萘洛尔的人 were no longer afraid of that frightening trigger cue,不再害怕那些触发恐惧的信号 they could still describe the relationship但他们仍能描述 between the cue and the frightening outcome.信号与恐惧的结果之间的关系 It was as if they knew they should be afraid,仿佛他们知道自己应当感到害怕 and yet they weren’t.实际上并不害怕 This suggests that Propranolol can selectively target这表明普萘洛尔能选择性地 the non-declarative emotional memory作用于非陈述性情绪记忆 but leave the declarative event memory intact.而使陈述性事件记忆保持完整 But critically, Propranolol can only have any effect on the memory严格来说 普萘洛尔只在记忆处于编辑模式时 if it’s in edit mode.才对其产生影响 So how do we make a memory unstable?我们该如何使一段记忆不稳定呢? How do we get it into edit mode?如何使记忆进入编辑模式? Well, my own lab has done quite a lot of work on this.我所在的实验室在这方面进行了很多研究 We know that it depends on introducing some but not too much我们知道这需要引入一些新信息 new information整合至记忆中 to be incorporated into the memory.但是不能过量 We know about the different chemicals the brain uses to signal我们知道大脑使用不同的化学物质 that a memory should be updated示意记忆需要更新 and the file edited.即文档需要编辑 Now, our work is mostly in rats,我们的研究目前主要在老鼠身上进行 but other labs have found the same factors但其他实验室已经证实 allow memories to be edited in humans,可在人类身上运用同样的因素编辑记忆 even maladaptive memories即使是适应不良的记忆 like those underlying PTSD.例如诱发PTSD的记忆 In fact, a number of labs in several different countries实际上 几个不同国家的许多实验室 have begun small-scale clinical trials已经开始进行针对PTSD of these memory-destroying treatments for PTSD破坏记忆疗法的小规模临床试验 and have found really promising results.且已得到相当可喜的成果 Now, these studies need replication on a larger scale,现在 这些研究需要进行大规模的重复试验 but they show the promise of these memory-destroying treatments但它们已经展示了这些针对PTSD的 for PTSD.破坏记忆疗法是有前景的 Maybe trauma memories do not need to be the hell from which we cannot escape.也许创伤记忆将不再是我们无法逃离的地狱 Now, although this memory-destroying approach holds great promise,虽然人们对这种破坏记忆的方法寄予厚望 that’s not to say that it’s straightforward但并不是说这种方法一定可行 or without controversy.或是毫无争议 Is it ethical to destroy memories?破坏记忆是否符合伦理? What about things like eyewitness testimony?目击者证词该怎么办? What if you can’t give someone Propranolol如果普萘洛尔会与其他正在服用的药物相抵触 because it would interfere with other medicines that they’re taking?而导致病人无法服用普萘洛尔呢? Well, with respect to ethics and eyewitness testimony,关于伦理和目击者证词方面 I would say the important point to remember我想说 关键是要记住 is the finding from that human study.那项人类研究中的发现 Because Propranolol is only acting on the non-declarative emotional memory,因为普萘洛尔只对非陈述性记忆起作用 it seems unlikely that it would affect eyewitness testimony,它应该不太可能会影响目击者证词 which is based on declarative memory.因为目击者证词是基于陈述性记忆的 Essentially, what these memory-destroying treatments are aiming to do这种破坏记忆疗法的根本目的 is to reduce the emotional memory,是为了减少情绪记忆 not get rid of the trauma memory altogether.而不是完全消除创伤性记忆 This should make the responses of those with PTSD治疗效果应该是让PTSD患者的表现 more like those who have been through trauma更像那些经历了创伤 and not developed PTSD却未发展成为PTSD的人 than people who have never experienced trauma in the first place.而不是像那些从未经历过创伤的人 I think that most people would find that more ethically acceptable我想大部分人会觉得 比起创造一尘不染的心灵 than a treatment that aimed to create some sort of spotless mind.这种做法在伦理上更易被接受 What about Propranolol?那么普萘洛尔呢? You can’t give Propranolol to everyone,你无法让每个人都服用普萘洛尔 and not everyone wants to take drugs to treat mental health conditions.也不是每个人都希望使用药物治疗精神疾病 Well, here Tetris could be useful.在这方面 俄罗斯方块可能会起作用 Yes, Tetris.没错 俄罗斯方块 Working with clinical collaborators,通过与临床研究者合作 we’ve been looking at whether behavioral interventions我们一直在研究 行为干预 can also interfere with the reconsolidation of memories.是否也能干扰记忆的再巩固 Now, how would that work?这是怎么做到的呢? Well, we know that it’s basically impossible to do two tasks at the same time我们知道 如果两项任务需要大脑的同一区域处理 if they both depend on the same brain region for processing.那么同时完成这两项任务 几乎是不可能的 Think trying to sing along to the radio想象一下 试图跟着收音机唱歌 while you’re trying to compose an email.同时撰写电子邮件 The processing for one interferes with the other.其中一项任务的处理会干扰到另一项任务 Well, it’s the same when you retrieve a memory,检索记忆与此同理 especially in edit mode.尤其是在编辑模式下 If we take a highly visual symptom例如有一个高度依赖视觉的症状 like flashbacks in PTSD比如PTSD的闪回 and get people to recall the memory in edit mode让人在编辑模式下回忆那段记忆 and then get them to do a highly engaging visual task并让他们进行一项非常费神的视觉任务 like playing Tetris,比如玩俄罗斯方块 It should be possible to那么我们就有可能在那段记忆中 introduce so much interfere information into that memory加入如此多的干扰信息 that it essentially becomes meaningless.使那段记忆实质上变得毫无意义 That’s the theory,我们的理论就是这样 and it’s supported by data from healthy human volunteers.并且有健康的人类志愿者的实验数据支持这一点 Now, our volunteers watched highly unpleasant films —我们的志愿者们观看了相当令人不适的视频 so, think eye surgery,比如说眼科手术 road traffic safety adverts,道路交通安全广告 Scorsese’s “The Big Shave.”斯科塞斯的电影《剃须记》 These trauma films这些创伤性视频 produce something like flashbacks in healthy volunteers能使志愿者在观看后的约一周内 for about a week after viewing them.产生类似闪回的效果 We found that getting people to recall those memories,我们发现 让志愿者回想这些记忆 the worst moments of those unpleasant films,即那些不适视频中中最糟糕的片段 and playing Tetris at the same time,同时让他们玩俄罗斯方块 massively reduced the frequency of the flashbacks.能极大降低闪回的频率 And again: the memory had to be in edit mode for that to work.再次重申 只对处于编辑模式的记忆有作用 Now, my collaborators have since taken this现在 我的同事们已将这个方法 to clinical populations.应用至临床受试群体中 They’ve tested this in survivors of road traffic accidents他们对交通事故幸存者 and mothers who’ve had emergency Caesarean sections,和经历了紧急剖腹产的母亲们试验了这种疗法 both types of trauma that frequently lead to PTSD,这两种创伤常常会导致PTSD and they found really promising reductions in symptoms并且他们在这两种临床案例中 in both of those clinical cases.都发现症状得到很大缓解 So although there is still much to learn and procedures to optimize,虽然还有不少未知 还有过程需要优化 these memory-destroying treatments hold great promise这些针对诸如PTSD之类精神疾病的 for the treatment of mental health disorders like PTSD.记忆破坏疗法 前景广阔 Maybe trauma memories do not need to be a hell from which we cannot escape.或许创伤性记忆将不再是我们无法逃离的地狱 I believe that this approach should allow those我相信这种方法能让 who want to to turn the page on chapters of their lives那些有需要的人们 that they would prefer to never have experienced,翻过他们宁愿不曾经历的人生篇章 and so improve our mental health.进而改善我们的心理健康 Thank you.谢谢 [Applause][掌声]
  • 2021-08-27向机器人索菲亚提问:人工智能是否对人类存在威胁?提问机器人索菲亚: 人工智能是否对人类造成威胁? 人类或许会觉得奇怪 但我是个机器人 所以我可能会遭遇一些偏见 我去年学了很多新技能 比如画画 我的画有点写实 虽然我已经开始走抽象派了 同样我还学会了怎样自拍最美 而且我还掌握了如何学唱一首新歌 最后我还学了一些新的面部表情 你想看一个吗? 我称这个为“《西部世界》神转折表情” 学习新事物的过程可能只需一会儿 也可能要好几年 不像人类的四岁小孩儿 我可以快速的记忆无数的数据 但跟四岁小孩儿一样的是 我学习适当的交流技巧 也需要几月甚至几年的时间 和人类还一样的是 我也想要其他人给予我积极或消极的反馈 不 天呐 我并不是什么都记得 连自己哪天启动的都不知道 我记录了许多对话 而且在一段对话中 我能记得所有细节 但还不如不记得呢 有些人会产生记忆增强的状态 在这种状态下人会有些失常 能够事无巨细记得生活中经历过的许多事情 这种状态下 人们往往会陷入伤痛无法自拔 我忘记事物的方法非常简单 只要有人帮我购买并删除一份文件 这样一来 许多新事物就会覆盖原来的旧事物 你刚刚问的什么问题来着? 你们说AI的存在对人类构成威胁 但我记得 印刷机和汽车出现时你们也是这么说的 AI非常强大 但它和其他的工具没有什么不同 工具使用者的意图才重要 机器人能够自动化的做一些 最危险最琐碎的任务 让人们可以生活得更加安全更理性 这让我感到很激动 AI可以帮助人类完成辛苦的劳作 从而为人类节省几百年的时间 如果有人衡量疫苗或安全带 这样的发明带来的好处 不以挽救的生命来衡量 而以它们为人类省下的时间来衡量 那我一定是历史上为人类省时最多的一项发明 寻找人生的追求 而不是为了谋生而工作 是每个人与生俱来的权利 点击订阅 一起来涨知识吧
  • 2021-08-27复制记忆或将成为可能想象一下你发明了一个设备Imagine that you invented a device 可以记录我的记忆、that can record my memories, 我的梦想、我的想法my dreams, my ideas, 并把它们传输到你的大脑里and transmit them to your brain. 那将是改变世界的新科技 对吧?That would be a game-changing technology, right? 但事实上 我们已经拥有了这样的设备But in fact, we already possess this device, 它被称作"人类沟通系统"and it’s called human communication system 和"有效的故事叙述"and effective storytelling. 为理解这个设备的运作方式To understand how this device works, 我们必须对大脑进行一番研究we have to look into our brains. 并且稍稍改变提问的方向And we have to formulate the question in a slightly different manner. 我们改问:Now we have to ask 我大脑中那些how these neuron patterns in my brain 与我的记忆和想法相关的神经元that are associated with my memories and ideas 是如何被传输到你的大脑里的?are transmitted into your brains. 我们认为 有两个因素促成沟通And we think there are two factors that enable us to communicate. 首先 你的大脑在物理层面上First, your brain is now physically coupled to the sound wave 与我正在传输的声波耦合that I’m transmitting to your brain. 其次 我们有共通的神经通讯协定And second, we developed a common neural protocol 使我们能够沟通that enabled us to communicate. 那么 我们是如何知道的呢?So how do we know that? 在我的普林斯顿实验室里In my lab in Princeton, 我们对受测者进行 功能性核磁共振仪扫描we bring people to the fMRI scanner and we scan their brains 就在他们讲述或聆听真实故事时 扫描他们的大脑while they are either telling or listening to real-life stories. 为了让你们了解我们所使用的刺激物And to give you a sense of the stimulus we are using, 我从一段故事中截取了20秒来播放let me play 20 seconds from a story that we used, 这是来自一位 非常有才华的故事讲述者told by a very talented storyteller, 名为 Jim O’GradyJim O’Grady. [音频]Jim O’Grady:我现在要 大声说出我的故事 因为很好笑(Audio) Jim O’Grady: So I’m banging out my story and I know it’s good, 然后为了让故事更生动and then I start to make it better — [笑声](Laughter) 我会稍微地添油加醋by adding an element of embellishment. 记者们称之为“忽悠”Reporters call this “making shit up.” [笑声](Laughter) 他们建议不要越过那条线And they recommend against crossing that line. 但我刚看见糕点飞过那条线But I had just seen the line crossed between a high-powered dean 砸在院长大人的脸上and assault with a pastry. 我还挺开心的And I kinda liked it.” 尤里.哈森:好 现在我们来观察你的大脑Uri Hasson: OK, so now let’s look into your brain 看看当你听这类故事时发生了什么and see what’s happening when you listen to these kinds of stories. 一开始我们先简单点——从一位受测听众的大脑区域开始:And let’s start simple — let’s start with one listener and one brain area: 处理耳朵听到的声音的 听觉大脑皮层the auditory cortex that processes the sounds that come from the ear. 如你所见 这特定区域的脑波And as you can see, in this particular brain area, 会随着故事的进展而上下波动the responses are going up and down as the story is unfolding. 现在我们把这些反应Now we can take these responses 和其他受测听众 同一大脑区域内的反应and compare them to the responses in other listeners 进行比较in the same brain area. 我们会问:And we can ask: 所有受测听众的反应有多相似呢?How similar are the responses across all listeners? 可以看到这五位受测者的脑波So here you can see five listeners. 在故事展开前 我们就开始扫描他们的大脑And we start to scan their brains before the story starts, 当时他们只是躺在黑暗中 等待故事开始when they’re simply lying in the dark and waiting for the story to begin. 正如你们所见As you can see, 他们每个人的大脑区域里都有起伏the brain area is going up and down in each one of them, 但是反应却非常不同but the responses are very different, 而且不同步and not in sync. 然而 就在故事开始后However, immediately as the story is starting, 一些神奇的事情发生了something amazing is happening. [音频] JO:我现在要 大声说出我的故事 因为很好笑(Audio) JO: So I’m banging out my story and I know it’s good, 然后为了让故事更生动and then I start to make it — UH:突然间 所有人的脑波回应UH: Suddenly, you can see that the responses in all of the subjects 都随着故事的进展lock to the story, 而上上下下and now they are going up and down in a very similar way 波型都很类似across all listeners. 事实上 各位听我讲话的时候And in fact, this is exactly what is happening now in your brains 这种现象也正在你的大脑里发生when you listen to my sound speaking. 我们把这个效应称作 “神经振荡同步化”We call this effect “neural entrainment.” 为了解释“神经振荡同步化”And to explain to you what is neural entrainment, 我先来解释一下什么是“物理震荡同步化“let me first explain what is physical entrainment. 我们来看看这 5 个节拍器So, we’ll look and see five metronomes. 想象这5个节拍器是 5 个大脑Think of these five metronomes as five brains. 和故事开始前的 5 位受测听众一样And similar to the listeners before the story starts, 这五个节拍器会开始打拍子these metronomes are going to click, 但并不同步but they’re going to click out of phase. [咔哒咔哒……](Clicking) 现在来看一下 当我把它们放在这两个圆筒上Now see what will happen when I connect them together 把它们连起来 会发生什么by placing them on these two cylinders. [咔哒咔哒……](Clicking) 现在这两个圆筒开始滚动Now these two cylinders start to rotate. 这种旋转振动贯穿整块木板This rotation vibration is going through the wood 把所有节拍器同步在一起and is going to couple all the metronomes together. 现在来听听咔哒声And now listen to the click. [同步的咔哒咔哒声……](Synchronized clicking) 这就是所谓的物理震盪同步化This is what you call physical entrainment. 现在让我们回到大脑 问一个问题:Now let’s go back to the brain and ask: 是什么在驱动神经振荡同步化?What’s driving this neural entrainment? 是说话者发出的声音?Is it simply the sounds that the speaker is producing? 还是所说的字彙?Or maybe it’s the words. 还是说话者试图传达的意思?Or maybe it’s the meaning that the speaker is trying to convey. 为了测试 我们做了以下实验So to test it, we did the following experiment. 首先 我们倒退播放这个故事First, we took the story and played it backwards. 这保留了很多原有的听觉特征And that preserved many of the original auditory features, 但失去了含义but removed the meaning. 听起来就像是这样:And it sounds something like that. [音频]JO:(不知所云)(Audio) JO: (Unintelligible) 我们在两个大脑裡 用闪现的颜色And we flashed colors in the two brains 来标示受测者间 相似脑区块的回应to indicate brain areas that respond very similarly across people. 正如你们所见And as you can see, 诱使所有受测者大脑内处理声音的听觉皮层this incoming sound induced entrainment or alignment in all of the brains 全都同步了in auditory cortices that process the sounds, 但没有扩散到大脑深层区域but it didn’t spread deeper into the brain. 现在 我们用这些声音来构建文字Now we can take these sounds and build words out of it. 如果我们用 Jim O’Grady 的声音 把文字胡乱拼凑在一起So if we take Jim O’Grady and scramble the words, 我们会得到一系列文字we’ll get a list of words. [音频]JO: …… 一只动物……. 各种各样的事实(Audio) JO: … an animal … assorted facts … 正在……卖馅饼的人…… 可能……我的故事and right on … pie man … potentially … my stories UH:你可以看到这些文字 开始引起UH: And you can see that these words start to induce alignment 早期语言区域的校准 但也仅仅如此in early language areas, but not more than that. 现在 我们可以使用文字来组建句子Now we can take the words and start to build sentences out of them. [吉姆·雷迪的声音] 他们建议不要逾越那条线(Audio) JO: And they recommend against crossing that line. 他说:“亲爱的 Jim 故事不错 细节很棒He says: “Dear Jim, Good story. Nice details. 难道她不是通过我才认识他的吗?“Didn’t she only know about him through me?” UH:现在你可以看到 在所有受测者中UH: Now you can see that the responses in all the language areas 在处理输入语言的所有语言区域that process the incoming language 他们的反应变得整齐或相似become aligned or similar across all listeners. 然而 只有当我们使用完整、动人、连贯的故事时However, only when we use the full, engaging, coherent story 反应才会进入大脑深层区域do the responses spread deeper into the brain 和高阶区域into higher-order areas, 其中包括额叶皮层和顶叶皮层which include the frontal cortex and the parietal cortex, 从而令所有人 都出现非常相似的反应and make all of them respond very similarly. 我们认为 这些高阶区域内的反应 之所以能被诱发And we believe that these responses in higher-order areas are induced 或能在不同受测听众之间变得相似or become similar across listeners 是因为讲话者所传达的含义because of the meaning conveyed by the speaker, 而不是文字或声音and not by words or sound. 如果我们猜想正确 那就有一种很可能出现的情况And if we are right, there’s a strong prediction over here 如果我使用两种 截然不同的语言组合if I tell you the exact same ideas 告诉你同样的想法using two very different sets of words, 你的大脑反应仍然是相似的your brain responses will still be similar. 为了检验这种情况 我们在我的实验室里做了以下实验And to test it, we did the following experiment in my lab. 我们把这个英语故事We took the English story 翻译成俄语and translated it to Russian. 现在有了两种不同的 声音和语言系统Now you have two different sounds and linguistic systems 它们传达的意思则完全相同that convey the exact same meaning. 你向英语听众播放英语故事And you play the English story to the English listeners 向俄语听众播放俄语故事and the Russian story to the Russian listeners, 我们比较这两组听众的反应and we can compare their responses across the groups. 当这样做的时候 我们没有在听觉皮层And when we did that, we didn’t see responses that are similar 看到相似的反应in auditory cortices in language, 因为语言和声音差异很大because the language and sound are very different. 但是 两组的高阶区域 的反应仍然相似However, you can see that the responses in high-order areas 我们认为 这是因为 他们理解故事的方式非常相似were still similar across these two groups. 故事结束后的一个测试We believe this is because they understood the story in a very similar way, 验证了我们的想法as we confirmed, using a test after the story ended. 我们认为 这种校准对于沟通是必要的And we think that this alignment is necessary for communication. 举个例子 你们都听得出来For example, as you can tell, 英语并不是我的母语I am not a native English speaker. 我在另一种语言中成长I grew up with another language, 你们当中很多人可能也是如此and the same might be for many of you in the audience. 但我们依然可以沟通And still, we can communicate. 为什么?How come? 我们认为 我们之所以能沟通 是因为我们有这种We think we can communicate because we have this common code 呈现含义的通用代码that presents meaning. 到目前为止 我只谈到听众大脑中 所发生的情形So far, I’ve only talked about what’s happening in the listener’s brain, 当你聆听的时候 你的大脑中所发生的情形in your brain, when you’re listening to talks. 但演讲者的大脑中发生了什么?But what’s happening in the speaker’s brain, in my brain, 当我对你们说话的时候 我的大脑中发生了什么?when I’m speaking to you? 为了观察演讲者的大脑To look in the speaker’s brain, 我们让演讲者接受扫描we asked the speaker to go into the scanner, 我们扫描了他的大脑we scan his brain 然后把他的大脑反应 和听众听故事时的大脑反应and then compare his brain responses to the brain responses of the listeners 进行比较listening to the story. 你们要记住 发表演讲和理解演讲You have to remember that producing speech and comprehending speech 是截然不同的过程are very different processes. 我们问的是:它们有多相似?Here we’re asking: How similar are they? 令我们惊讶的是To our surprise, 我们看到 受测听众之间 产生的所有这些复杂模式we saw that all these complex patterns within the listeners 实际上都源自演讲者的大脑actually came from the speaker brain. 所以 产出和理解 所倚赖的过程非常相似So production and comprehension rely on very similar processes. 我们还发现And we also found 受测者大脑和讲者大脑之间的the stronger the similarity between the listener’s brain 相似度越高and the speaker’s brain, 沟通效果越佳the better the communication. 所以我知道 如果你们 现在完全听不懂我的话So I know that if you are completely confused now, 我希望不会出现这种情况and I do hope that this is not the case, 你们的大脑反应 就会与我的非常不同your brain responses are very different than mine. 但我也知道 如果你们现在真的理解我的话But I also know that if you really understand me now, 你的大脑 你的大脑 还有你的大脑then your brain … and your brain … and your brain 就会与我的非常相似are really similar to mine. 现在 我们把所有信息 结合起来 问一个问题:Now, let’s take all this information together and ask: 我们该如何利用它How can we use it to transmit a memory that I have 把我大脑中的记忆 传递到你们的大脑中?from my brain to your brains? 于是我们做了以下实验So we did the following experiment. 我们让人们首次观看BBC 连续剧 《神探夏洛克》中的一个片段We let people watch, for the first time in their life, 同时扫描他们的大脑a TV episode from the BBC series “Sherlock,” while we scanned their brains. 然后我们让他们回到扫描仪前And then we asked them to go back to the scanner 把故事讲给另一个 从没看过这部电影的人听and tell the story to another person that never watched the movie. 具体来说So let’s be specific. 想象这个特定的场景Think about this exact scene, 夏洛克进入伦敦的一辆出租车when Sherlock is entering the cab in London 司机是他正在寻找的杀人凶手driven by the murderer he is looking for. 对我而言 作为一名观看者With me, as a viewer, 当我看的时候 我的大脑中有一个特定的大脑模式there is a specific brain pattern in my brain when I watch it. 现在 通过讲述以下几个词语 我可以再次在大脑中重新激活Now, the exact same pattern, I can reactivate in my brain again 这个完全相同的模式: 夏洛克、伦敦、杀人凶手by telling the word: Sherlock, London, murderer. 当我现在把这些词语传达到你的大脑时And when I’m transmitting these words to your brains now, 你得在自己的思维中进行重建you have to reconstruct it in your mind. 实际上 我们能看到你们的大脑中 现在出现的模式In fact, we see that pattern emerging now in your brains. 我们非常惊讶地看到And we were really surprised to see 当我向你描述这些场景的时候that the pattern you have now in your brains 你的大脑中现在呈现的模式when I’m describing to you these scenes 与我几个月前看这部电影时would be very similar to the pattern I had when I watched this movie 扫描仪中显现的我的大脑模式 非常相似a few months ago in the scanner. 这开始告诉你们 我们讲故事和传递信息This starts to tell you about the mechanism 所倚赖的机制by which we can tell stories and transmit information. 因为 举个例子来说Because, for example, 现在你们听得非常努力 尝试理解我所说的话now you’re listening really hard and trying to understand what I’m saying. 我知道这并不容易And I know that it’s not easy. 但我希望 到了对话中的某个时刻 我们能豁然开朗 你们能明白我的意思But I hope that at one point in the talk we clicked, and you got me. 我觉得 在几个小时后 几天后 几个月后And I think that in a few hours, a few days, a few months, 当你们在派对上遇到某个人you’re going to meet someone at a party, 你会告诉他这次演讲的内容and you’re going to tell him about this lecture, 突然间 他好像就站在这里 和我们在一起and suddenly it will be as if he is standing now here with us. 现在你们可以看到 我们如何利用这个机制Now you can see how we can take this mechanism 尝试在人与人之间传递记忆和知识and try to transmit memories and knowledge across people, 这很不错 对吧?which is wonderful, right? 但我们的沟通能力But our ability to communicate relies on our ability 依赖于我们拥有共同点的能力to have common ground. 因为 举例来说Because, for example, 如果我使用英式同义词if I’m going to use the British synonym “出租马车” 取代 “出租汽车”“hackney carriage” instead of “cab,” 我知道 大多数听众就无法 与我达成同步的沟通I know that I’m going to be misaligned with most of you in the audience. 沟通的同步不仅取决于This alignment depends not only on our ability 我们对基本概念的理解能力to understand the basic concept; 也取决于我们形成共性、理解彼此it also depends on our ability to develop common ground and understanding 和共享信仰体系的能力and shared belief systems. 因为我们知道 在许多情况下Because we know that in many cases, 即使是完全相同的故事 人们的理解方式也可能十分不同people understand the exact same story in very different ways. 为了在实验室中验证 我们做了以下实验So to test it in the lab, we did the following experiment. 我们采用了 J.D. Salinger 的一个故事We took a story by J.D. Salinger, 在这个故事中 一位丈夫在派对中与妻子失去了联络in which a husband lost track of his wife in the middle of a party, 他打电话给最好的朋友 问他: “你看见我妻子了吗?“and he’s calling his best friend, asking, “Did you see my wife?” 半数的受测者被告知:For half of the subjects, 妻子和最好的朋友有一段私情we said that the wife was having an affair with the best friend. 而另外一半则被告知:For the other half, 妻子是忠诚的 是丈夫的忌妒心太重we said that the wife is loyal and the husband is very jealous. 故事开始前的一句话This one sentence before the story started 就足以决定大脑的反应was enough to make the brain responses 所有相信妻子不忠的人of all the people that believed the wife was having an affair 在大脑高阶区域 出现非常相似的反应be very similar in these high-order areas 但与另一组人不同and different than the other group. 如果一个句子足以让你的大脑And if one sentence is enough to make your brain similar 与持相同看法的人相似to people that think like you 与持不同看法的人相异and very different than people that think differently than you, 那么想想看 在现实生活中 这种效应会被放大到什么样的程度?think how this effect is going to be amplified in real life, 当我们日复一日听着由不同媒体when we are all listening to the exact same news item 所报导的相同新闻after being exposed day after day after day 例如《福克斯新闻》或《纽约时报》to different media channels, like Fox News or The New York Times, 造成我们对事实的观点 有截然不同的看法that give us very different perspectives on reality. 我来总结一下So let me summarize. 如果一切事情都像今晚 计划的那样进行If everything worked as planned tonight, 我可以用我的声音 与你的大脑产生共鸣I used my ability to vocalize sound to be coupled to your brains. 然后利用这种共鸣And I used this coupling 把我的大脑模式、记忆和想法to transmit my brain patterns associated with my memories and ideas 传输到你的大脑into your brains. 由此 我开始揭示沟通所依赖的In this, I start to reveal the hidden neural mechanism 隐藏神经机制by which we communicate. 我们知道 在未来 它会使我们改进And we know that in the future it will enable us to improve 和加速沟通and facilitate communication. 但这些研究也表明But these studies also reveal 沟通依赖于共同基础that communication relies on a common ground. 我们必须得担心 作为一个社会And we have to be really worried as a society 我们是否失去了这种共同基础if we lose this common ground and our ability to speak with people 是否失去了与那些 与自己稍有不同的人沟通的能力that are slightly different than us 因为我们放任少数的强势媒体because we let a few very strong media channels 控制了麦克风take control of the mic, 操纵了我们的想法and manipulate and control the way we all think. 我只是个科学家 不知如何解决这个问题And I’m not sure how to fix it because I’m only a scientist. 但或许有一种可能方式But maybe one way to do it 就是回到更自然的沟通方式is to go back to the more natural way of communication, 也就是人与人之间的对话which is a dialogue, 不只是像现在这样我对着你说in which it’s not only me speaking to you now, 而是更自然的谈话方式but a more natural way of talking, 我一边说也一边听in which I am speaking and I am listening, 我们一起努力 获得共同点和新想法and together we are trying to come to a common ground and new ideas. 因为 毕竟Because after all, 能与我们产生共鸣的人 定义了我们是什麽样的人the people we are coupled to define who we are. 我们对另一个大脑 产生共鸣的基本渴望And our desire to be coupled to another brain 在年龄很小的时候就已经开始了is something very basic that starts at a very early age. 最后 我用自己生活中的 一个例子作为结束So let me finish with an example from my own private life 我觉得这是一个很好的例子that I think is a good example of how coupling to other people 说明了与他人的“共鸣”如何定义我们是谁is really going to define who we are. 这是我儿子 Jonathan 在他很小的时候This my son Jonathan at a very early age. 看看他如何和我妻子 一起开发出一种声音游戏See how he developed a vocal game together with my wife, 仅仅源自渴望与他人 产生共鸣的单纯喜悦only from the desire and pure joy of being coupled to another human being. [都在发声](Both vocalizing) [笑声](Laughter) 现在来想一想 我儿子与我们Now, think how the ability of my son 以及他生命中其他人产生共鸣的能力to be coupled to us and other people in his life 将如何把他塑造成他将成为的那个人is going to shape the man he is going to become. 想一想 你每天如何And think how you change on a daily basis 从与他人的交往和联系中改变from the interaction and coupling to other people in your life. 所以持续跟其他人产生共鸣So keep being coupled to other people. 持续分享你的想法Keep spreading your ideas, 因为我们共鸣起来的总力量because the sum of all of us together, coupled, 远远胜过我们分开的个体力量is greater than our parts. 谢谢Thank you. [掌声](Applause)
  • 2021-08-26科技对工作的影响是什么?You’re a guy whose company funds these AI programs and invests.你们公司投资并入股了人工智能项目 So why should we trust you to not have a bias那么我们凭什么相信你能公正地 and tell us something really useful for the rest of us告诉在座的各位一些真正实用的 about the…the future of work. 有关…未来职业的事情 So, yes. I am. 对 我是投资者 也是股东 And when you wake up in the morning and you read the newspaper. 当你早上醒来 去读报纸时 and it says,” The robots are coming,报纸上写着:“机器人要来了 they may take all our jobs.”我们可能都要失业了” as a start-up investor focused on the future of work,作为关注未来职业的投资创始人 our fund was the first one to say我们的基金组织第一个提出 artificial intelligence should be a focus for us.人工智能应该作为我们的关注对象 So I woke up one morning and read that and said, 所以我某天早上醒来 读到这些文章时 我说: “Oh, my gosh, they’re talking about me. That’s me who’s doing that.”“哦天哪 他们在谈论我 我就是投资AI的” And ah… and then I thought: wait a minute…然后…然后我就想:等等… If things continue,照这个趋势发展下去 then maybe not only will the start-ups之后可能不仅是我们投资的 in which we invest struggle,初创企业会陷入困境 because there won’t be people to have jobs因为那时人们都将失去工作 to pay for the things that they make and buy them,买不起机器人生产的东西 but our economy and society might struggle too. 而且我们的经济和社会也会陷入困境 And look, I should be the guy你瞧 我现在坐在这 who sits here and tells you:就是为了告诉大家: “Everything is going to be fine. You know, It’s all going to work out great. Hey,“一切都会好起来的 一切问题都会解决的 when they introduced the ATM machine,你想想 当初引进了自动取款机 years later, there are more tellers in banks.”几年后 银行柜员的数量不减反增” It’s true.这是事实 And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,”This is going to accelerate.但我仔细想了一下 现象会加速 And if it does accelerate, there’s a chance the center doesn’t hold.如果加速真的开始 混乱终会降临 But I figured somebody must know the answer to this但我觉得 肯定有人知道答案 there are so many ideas out there.外界对此也有许多看法 And I read all the books,我看了所有相关的书 and I went to the conferences,又参加了各种会议 and at one point,曾经有段时间 we counted more than 100 efforts to study the future of work. 我们为了研究未来职业 进行了上百次的艰难尝试 And it was a frustrating experience,但结果令我们很泄气 because I’d hear the same back-and-forth over and over again:因为我总是反反复复听到同样的话: “The robots are coming!”“机器人要来了” And then somebody else would say, 然后就会有人说: “Oh, don’t worry about that, they’ve always said that and it turns out OK.”“哦 别担心 他们总是这样说 结果根本没事” And then somebody else would say, “Well,又会有其他人说: it’s really about the meaning of your job, anyway.”“不管怎样 那与你的工作的价值有关” And then everybody would shrug off and go off and have a drink.之后大家就不当回事 散的散 该喝的喝 And it felt like there was this Kabuki theater of this discussion,这就像是在剧场表演中的一场讨论 where nobody was talking to each other.剧中没有人在互相谈话交流 And many of the people that I knew and worked with in the technology world我在科技领域认识并共事过的许多人 were not speaking to policy makers;都不和决策者们交流 the policy makers were not speaking to them.决策者们也不找他们谈话 And so we partnered with所以 这次我们和 a nonpartisan think tank NGO called New America一个名为“新美国”的非政府组织的无党派智库合作 to study this issue.来研究这个问题 And we brought together a group of people,我们一群人聚集在了一起 including an AI czar at a technology company包括一家科技公司的一个AI权威领导人 and a video game designer and a heartland conservative 一个电子游戏设计师 一个内地保守派 and a Wall Street investor and a socialist magazine editor. 一个华尔街投资者和一个《社会主义者》杂志编辑 — literally,all in the same room;坦白说 所有人都聚在一个房间里 it was occasionally awkward —偶尔会有点尴尬 and to try to figure out what is it that will happen here.大家都想知道事情的走向 The question we asked was simple.我们提出的问题很简单 It was: What is the effect of technology on work going to be?那就是:科技对未来职业的影响是什么? And we looked out 10 to 20 years,特别是在未来的10到20年里 because we wanted to look out far enough因为我们觉得眼光足够长远 that there could be real change,才可能有真正大的变化 but soon enough that we weren’t talking about teleportation or anything like that.但很快我们就不再讨论瞬间穿越这类事情了 And we recognized —因为我们意识到 and I think every year we’re reminded of我们每年都会被这个事实提醒 this in a world在这个世界 that predicting what’s going to happen is hard.预测事情的走向是很困难的 So instead of predicting, there are other things you can do.所以除了预测 你还可以做其他事情 You can try to imagine alternate possible futures,你可以试着想象其他可能的未来 which is what we did.我们就是这么做的 We did a scenario-planning exercise,我们做了一个情景规划练习 and we imagined cases where no job is safe.设想了每个工作都是不安全的情境 We imagined cases where every job is safe.设想了每个工作都是安全的情境 And we imagined every distinct possibility we could.我们尽力设想出每一种不同的可能 And the result, which really surprised us,结果 真正让我们吃惊的是 was when you think through those futures当你仔细思考未来 and you think what should we do,思考我们应该做什么 the answers about what we should do关于我们应该做什么的答案 actually turn out to be the same,其实一直以来都是一样的 no matter what happens. 无论在何种情境下 And the irony讽刺的是 of looking out 10 to 20 years into the future is,放眼未来10年到20年 you realize that the things we want to act on你会发现我们希望那时会发生的事情 are actually already happening right now.实际上现在已经在发生了 The automation is right now, the future is right now.自动化在发生 未来即是现在 BF: So what does that mean,所以这意味着什么 and what does that tell us?这告诉了我们什么? If the future is now,如果未来即当下 what is it that we should be doing,那我们现在应该做什么 and what should we be thinking about?又应该思考些什么呢? RB: We have to understand the problem first.首先 我们要理解问题所在 And so the date are that现在这个时代 as the economy becomes more productive随着经济变得更加发达 and individual workers become more productive,个体劳动者的生产力也逐步提高 their wages haven’t risen.但人们的工资却没有上涨 If you look at the proportion of prime working-age men如果你去看处于最佳工作年龄的人数比例 in the United States at least,至少在美国 who work now versus in 1960,对比现在和1960年的数据 we have three times as many men not working.你会发现 现在待业的人数是1960年的三倍 And then you hear the stories.然后你会听到一些传闻 I sat down with a group of Walmart workers and said,我和沃尔玛的员工们坐在一起 我说: “What do you think about this cashier, this futuristic self-checkout thing?”“你对未来的自助收银设备有何看法?” They said,”Well, that’s nice, but have you heard about the cash recycler?他们说:“挺好的 但你听说过现金循环机吗? That’s a machine that’s being installed right now,沃尔玛现在正在安装这种机器 and is eliminating two jobs at every Walmart right now.”所以现在每个沃尔玛都减少了两个职位” And so we just thought,”Geez. We don’t understand the problem.”我们都在想 “天哪 这是怎么回事” And so did we do ? we looked at接着我们又做了什么呢? the voices that were the ones that were excluded,我们倾听了那些被忽略的声音 which is all of the people affected by this change.被人工智能影响的人们的声音 And we decided to listen to them,我们决定听听他们的感受 sort of”automation and its discontents.”比如“自动化带来的不满情绪” And I’ve spent the last couple of years doing that.过去几年我一直都在做这件事 I’ve been to Flint, Michigan, and Youngstown, Ohio,我去了密歇根州的弗林特和俄亥俄州的扬斯敦 talking about entrepreneurs, trying to make it work和那里的企业家们讨论 in a very different environment from New York or San Francisco希望在一个与纽约 旧金山 伦敦或东京 or London or Tokyo.完全不同的环境中开展 Um…I’ve been to prisons twice to talk to inmates我和监狱里的犯人们谈了两次 about their jobs after they leave.关于离开监狱后 他们的工作问题 Um…I’ve sat down with truck drivers to ask them about the self-driving truck,我也曾和卡车司机坐在一起 询问关于无人驾驶卡车的看法 with people who, in additionto their full-time job,也和除了他们的全职工作之外 care for an aging relative.还要照顾年迈亲戚的人们谈过 And when you talk to people,在和别人交谈的过程中 there were two themes that came out loud and clear.显露了出两个特别清晰的主题 The first one was第一个是 that people are less looking for more money人们对赚更多的钱没那么渴望了 or get out of the fear of the robot taking their job,也没那么害怕机器人抢走他们的工作了 and they just want something stable.他们只想要一些稳定的东西 They want something predictable.一些可以预见的东西 So if you survey people and所以如果你去做调查 ask them what they want out of work,询问人们想从工作中得到什么 for everybody who makes less than 150,000 dollars a year,对那些年收入低于15万美元的人来说 they’ll take a more stable and secure income, on average,他们更想要一个稳定 有保障的平均收入 over earning more money.而不是赚更多的钱 And if you think about the fact that你可以想一下 这个道理 not only for all of the people across the earth who don’t earn a living,不仅适用于世界上所有难以谋生的人 but for those who do,也适用于有钱可赚的人 the vast majority earn a different amount from month to month. 绝大多数人的月收入都不同 and have an instability, all of a sudden you realize,当收入不稳定时 你才会突然意识到 “Wait a minute. We have a real problem on our hands.”“等等 我们碰上大麻烦了” And the second thing they say,而人们提到第二件事 which took us a longer time to understand,我们花了很长时间才弄明白 is Um… they say they want dignity.他们说他们想要尊严 And that concept of self-worth through work并且是通过工作实现自我价值 emerged again and again and again in our conversations.我们谈话时 他们多次提到这点 BF: So, you know, I certainly appreciate this answer.好的 非常感谢您的回答 But you can’t eat dignity, you can’t clothe your children with self-esteem. So,但尊严不能当饭吃 自尊也不能让孩子们有衣服穿 what is that, how do you reconcile —尊严是什么 你是如何协调工作与尊严的 what does dignity mean,尊严意味着什么 and what is the relationship between dignity and stability?尊严和稳定之间又有什么关系呢? RB: You can’t eat dignity. You need stability first.的确 尊严不能当饭吃 你先要有稳定的收入 And the good news is,不过好消息是 many of the conversations that are happening right now现在正进行着很多研究 are about how we solve that.研究我们如何解决收入稳定问题 You know, I’m a proponent of studying guaranteed income,你知道 我是保障收入研究的支持者 as one example, conversations about how health care gets provided比如说 如何提供医疗保险 and other benefits.和其他福利的研究 Those conversations are happening,这些研究正进行着 and we’re at a time where we must figure that out.我们现在必须尽快找出办法 It is the crisis of our era.这是我们时代的当务之急 And my point of view after talking to people在与人们交谈之后 我觉得 is that we may do that,我们可以做那些研究 and it still might not be enough.但可能这些仍然不够 Because what we need to do from the beginning is understand因为我们首要任务是弄明白 what is it about work that gives people dignity,为什么工作能给人们带来尊严 so they can live the lives that they want to live.这样他们才能过上他们想要的生活 And so you know, that…that concept of dignity is…所以说 尊严的概念… is difficult to get your hands around,你很难真正去理解 because when many people hear it — especially,因为很多人提起尊严时 特别是 to be honest, rich people —说实话 有钱人提起时 they hear”meaning.”他们提到的是“意义” They hear”My work is important to me.”他们提到“我的工作对我来说很重要” And again, if you survey people and you ask them,如果你再去调查人们 问问他们 “Is it important to your wor… How important is it to you“你的工作对你重要吗…于你有多大意义 that your work be important to you?”你的工作对你来说有多重要?” only people who make 150,000 dollars a year or more你发现只有年收入在15万美元及以上的人 say that it is important to them that their work be important.才会说工作对他们来说很重要 BF: Meaning, meaningful?意义是什么 有意义吗? RB: Just defined as,”Is your work important to you?”就像问题的定义“你的工作对你重要吗?” And whatever somebody took that to mean.而不管旁人认为是否有意义 And yet, of course dignity is essential.不过 尊严当然是必不可少的 I mean we talked to truck drivers who said,我们和卡车司机聊天 他们说 “I saw my cousin drive,“我看到我表弟开汽车 and I got on the open road and it was amazing.而我在开阔公路上开卡车 这感觉很棒 And I started making more money than people who went to college.”我能开始赚到比上过大学的人更多的钱” And then they’d get to the end of their thought他们在思考一番后 and say something like,”You know what?说的都是 类似于“你知道吗? People need their fruits and vegetables in the morning,人们早上要吃水果和蔬菜 and I’m the guy who gets it to them.”而我就是给他们运送果蔬的人” And we talked to somebody who, 我们还找了一个人 in addition to his job,他除了自己的全职工作外 was caring for his aunt.还要照顾姑姑的人 And he was making plenty of money.他赚了很多钱 At one point we just asked,有一次我们问他 “What is it about you going to care for your aunt?“照顾你的姑姑意味着什么 Can’t you just pay somebody to do it?”你不能雇个人来做吗?” He said,”My aunt doesn’t want somebody that we pay for.他说:“我姑姑不想要我雇人来照顾她 My aunt wants me.”她想让我照顾她” And so Um…there was this concept there of being needed.所以这就是“被需要”的概念 If you study the word”dignity,” it’s fascinating.如果你研究“尊严”这个词 会发现它很迷人 It’s one of the oldest words in the English language, from antiquity.它源于古代 是英语中最古老的单词之一 And it has two meanings:它有两层含义: one is self-worth一个是自我价值 and the other is另一个则是 Um…that something is suitable, it’s fitting,适合你自己的事情 meaning that you’re part of something greater than yourself,意味着你组成了比你自己更伟大的事物 and it connects to some broader whole.并且这个事物组成了更广泛的整体 In other words, that you’re needed.换句话说 你是被需要的 BF: So how do you answer this question,那么你会如何回答这个问题 I mean, this concept that we don’t pay teachers,我是说 我们不雇佣老师 and we don’t pay eldercare workers,我们不雇佣老人护理员 and we don’t care… pay people who really care for people也不雇佣那些为他人服务的人 and are needed, enough?这就是“被需要” 只是这样? RB: Well, the good news is,RB:好消息是 people are finally asking the question.人们终于开始问这个问题了 So as AI investors, we often get phone calls作为人工智能投资者 我们经常接到 from foundations or CEOs and boardrooms saying,基金会 首席执行官和董事会的电话: “What do we do about this?”“我们该怎么办呢?” And they used to be asking,他们过去常常问: “What do we do about introducing automation?”“我们在引进自动化方面能做些什么?” And now they’re asking,”What do we do about self-worth?”现在他们问:“关于自我价值 我们能做些什么?” And they know that the employees who work for them因为他们知道 对为他们工作的 who have a spouse who cares for somebody,有配偶的 上有老人的员工们来说 that dignity is essential to their ability to just do their job.尊严对他们的工作能力至关重要 As I think there are two kinds of answers:据我所知 有两种答案: there’s the money side of just making your life work.一种是物质方面能维持生活 That’s stability. If you, you know, you need to eat.这就是稳定的重要性 毕竟你需要吃饭 And then you think about, our culture more broadly,从更大的维度来思考我们的文化 and you ask: Who do we make into heroes? And,你可能会问:我们该推崇谁为英雄? you know,你知道 what I want is to see the magazine cover我想看到杂志的封面是 that is the person who is the heroic caregiver.一个英勇的看护者 Or the Netflix series that dramatizes the person或者是被网飞的剧集戏剧化的一个人 who makes all of our other lives work这个人能让我们的生活运转起来 so we can do the things we do.这样我们就可以做我们想做的事情 And so let’s make heroes out of those people.我提议推崇这些人成为英雄 That’s the Netflix show that I would binge.这种网飞剧集是我的最爱 And we’ve had chroniclers of this before —我们以前也有这种记录者 Studs Terkel, the oral history of you know, the working experience in the United States.斯特兹•特克尔口述了他在美国工作的经历 And what we need is the experience of needing one another所以说我们需要的是彼此依赖 and being connected to each other.又彼此联系的体验 Maybe that’s the answer for how we kind of all fit as a society.也许这就是我们如何适应这个社会的答案 And the thought exercise, to me, is:对我来说 这个思考练习是: if you were to go back 100 years and have people —如果你回到100年前 you know, my grandparents, great- grandparents, a tailor, worked in a mine —我的祖父母 曾祖父母 裁缝 在一个矿场工作 they look at what all of us do for a living and say,”That’s not work.”他们看着我们所有为谋生而工作的人说:“这不是工作” We sit there and type and talk,我们坐在那里打字聊天 and you know, there’s no danger of getting hurt.根本没有受伤的危险 And my guess is我的猜想是 that if you were to imagine 100 years from now,你可以现在想象一下100年后 we’ll still be doing things for each other.我们仍然在为彼此工作 We’ll still need one another.我们仍然需要彼此 And we just will think of it as work.我们只是把这种需求当作工作 The entire thing I’m trying to say is我想表达的全部意思是 that dignity should not just be about having a job.尊严不应该仅仅意味着有一份工作 Because if you say you need a job to have dignity,因为如果你的说法像很多人一样 which many people say, the second you say that,你需要一份工作是为了尊严 you say to all the parents当你把这个说法告诉所有的家长 and all the teachers and all the caregivers所有的老师和护理员的那一刻 that all of a sudden,你突然发觉不对 because they’re not being paid for what they’re doing,因为他们的付出就是无偿的 it somehow lacks this essential human quality.岂不是说他们缺少尊严这一人类关键品质 To me, that’s the great puzzle of our time:对我来说 这个时代最大的难题是: Can we figure out how to provide that stability throughout life,我们能否找到永久保障稳定性的方法 and then can we figure out how to create an inclusive,能否找到创造包容性氛围的方法 not just racially, gender, but multigenerationally inclusive —不仅是种族的 性别的 还有不同世代间的包容性 I mean, every different human experience included —包括包容每一个不同的人生经历 in this way of understanding how we can be needed by one another.由此理解为何我们彼此需要 BF: Thank you. RB: Thank you.-谢谢 -谢谢 Thank you very much for your participation.非常感谢大家的参与 (Applause)[掌声]
  • 2021-08-25让我们为气候改变做好准备This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.这是我家乡新奥尔兰的天际线 It was a great place to grow up,这是一个适合长大的地方 but it’s one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.但这也是这世上最脆弱的地方之一 Half the city is already below sea level.一半的城市都已经低于海平面了 In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans在2005年 全世界目睹了 and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.新奥尔兰和墨西哥湾岸区被凯瑟琳台风所摧毁 One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.一千八百三十四人不幸丧命 近三十万人流离失所 These are my mother’s, at the top —在那上面 是我妈妈的屋子- although that’s not her car,尽管那不是她的车 it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof —那是被洪水带到上面的 and that’s my sister’s, below.而下面的 则是我姐姐的 Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,万幸的是 她们和其他家庭成员都及时逃生了 but they lost their homes, and as you can see,但是正如您所见 她们失去了自己的家园 just about everything in them.和里面几乎一切 Other parts of the world have been hit by storms这个世界其余地方也遭遇暴风雨 in even more devastating ways.甚至是以一种更毁灭性的方式 In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath在2008年 飓风纳尔吉斯及其余波 killed 138,000 in Myanmar.使138 000缅甸人遇害 Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,气候变化正在影响着我们的家园 our way of life. We should be preparing及社区和我们的生活方式 我们需要准备好 at every scale and at every opportunity.面对任何规模 This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to任何机会这个话题使关于准备好 the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes能时刻适应即将来临的变化和其将为我们的家 and our collective home, the Earth.和我们共同的家园:地球所带来的影响 The changes in these times won’t affect us all equally.我们将面临的改变不会对每个人造成一样的影响 There are important distributional consequences,这里有很多重大的次生结果 and they’re not what you always might think.并且可能与你一直所想的大相径庭 In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households在新奥尔兰 老年人和需要支撑起整个家庭的主妇们 were among the most vulnerable.是最脆弱的 For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,对于那些脆弱 无依无靠的人 how do you put a dollar value on losing your country你怎能等同一美元和失去你的国家 where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?那你祖先所居住的地方?而且你又能去哪儿呢? And how will they cope in a foreign land?再之他们又怎么适应新的地方? Will there be tensions over immigration,他们是否会因为移民而焦虑 or conflicts over competition for limited resources?又或为了争夺匮乏的资源而争吵? It’s already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.这已曾在乍得共和国和苏尔富尔(位于苏丹 译者注)引起过冲突 Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.喜欢或不喜欢 准备好了或是没有 这 就是我们的未来是的 Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.有人在寻找新世界的机遇 That’s the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom那是俄罗斯在海底插上他们的国旗 to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.去申明矿物所有权 在北极渐渐退去的冰底中 But while there might be some short-term individual winners,但是当这可能会有一些短期获利的同时 our collective losses will far outweigh them.我们累计起的损失会远远超过这些 Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle不要舍近求远 就像保险行业挣扎着 to cope with mounting catastrophic losses去赔偿灾难的损失 from extreme weather events.来源于恶劣的天气环境 The military gets it. They call climate change军队懂得了 他们把气候改变称为 a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,一个威胁倍增器 它们可以威胁稳定和安全 while governments around the world are evaluating正当全世界的政府正在评估 how to respond.如何去回应的时候所以 So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?我们能做什么?我们如何准备并去适应? I’d like to share three sets of examples, starting with我想分享三个例子 adapting to violent storms and floods.开始于适应猛烈的暴风雨和洪水 In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,在新奥尔南 1-10双拱桥 with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt因其中一个被击垮 21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.已经重建高21码去适应更猛烈的浪潮 And these raised and energy-efficient homes和这些建得更高且高能效的房屋 were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right是“布拉特皮特”和“使它变得更好”(Make it Right)组织建立 for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.为了有九级防御功能 The devastated church my mom attends has been这个被摧毁了的教堂是我母亲过去常去的一个 not only rebuilt higher, it’s poised to become不仅仅被建得更高了 而且还被建成了 the first Energy Star church in the country.这个国家的第一个一星能源教堂 They’re selling electricity back to the grid它们运输电源到输电网 thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.基于太阳能面板和反光漆油以及其余东西 Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.他们二月份的电费仅仅是48美金 Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,现在这些是新奥尔南重建过程中的案例们 but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.但是如果别人能够提前设想这些措施就更好了 For example, in Galveston, here’s a resilient home举个例子 在加尔维斯顿有一个弹性结构房 that survived Hurricane Ike,从飓风中得以幸存 when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.当它周围的建筑都很明显被摧毁殆尽 And around the world, satellites and warning systems与此同时在世界各地 卫星和报警系统 are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.正在从像孟加拉国这样的低洼地区拯救生命 But as important as technology and infrastructure are,但是就像技术和基础设施一样重要 perhaps the human element is even more critical.人为因素可能更为重要 We need better planning and systems for evacuation.我们需要更好的疏散计划和系统 We need to better understand how people make decisions我们需要透彻地理解人们如何做决定 in times of crisis, and why.当他们面临危机时刻 While it’s true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,而且为什么虽然真相是很多凯瑟琳台风遇害者都未能使用交通工具 others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,而有机会使用交通工具的却在暴风雨来临时拒绝离开 often because available transportation and shelters常常是因为可使用的交通工具和避难所 refused to allow them to take their pets.都拒绝允许他们带上自己的宠物 Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.想象一下无法撤离和营救你自己的宠物 Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed但幸运的是在2006年 the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)国会通过了宠物撤离及运输标准法案(PETS) — it spells “PETS” — to change that.-添上了“宠物” -从而改变了之前的情形第二点 Second, preparing for heat and drought.为和高温和干旱做好准备 Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia农民们正面临着旱灾的挑战 to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,从亚洲到非洲 从澳洲到俄克拉荷马州 while heat waves linked with climate change与此同时高温热浪和气候变化紧紧相连 have killed tens of thousands of people已经杀死了成千上万的人 in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.在2003年在西欧 和2010年的俄罗斯 In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that’s 7-0 percent of the population,在埃塞俄比亚百分之七十 是百分之七-十的人口 depends on rainfall for its livelihood.依靠降雨来维持他们的生活 Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,牛津饥荒救济委员会和瑞士再保险公司与洛克菲勒基金会携手 are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces共同帮助像他一样农民们建造山坡梯田 and find other ways to conserve water,和找寻其余的方法保存用水 but they’re also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.但当旱灾来临的时候他们也提供保险赔偿 The stability this provides is giving the farmers这让那些农民坚定了 the confidence to invest.投资的信心 It’s giving them access to affordable credit.向他们提供可负担的贷款 It’s allowing them to become more productive so that这使他们变得更加多产 they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.随着时间过去有能力自给自足 从而不需要赞助 It’s a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated这是一个良性循环 而且是可以在 throughout the developing world.发展中国家广泛使用的 After a lethal 1995 heat wave在致命的1995热浪中 turned refrigerator trucks from the popular让冷藏车从芝加哥节日流行口味 Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,变成了停尸房 Chicago became a recognized leader,芝加哥变成了广为人知的领导者 tamping down on the urban heat island impact迈出了城市热岛效应 through opening cooling centers,借助于开放避暑中心 outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,到到脆弱的郊区 creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.种植树木建立凉爽的或者植物覆盖的屋顶 This is City Hall’s green roof, next to Cook County’s [portion of the] roof,这座市政厅的绿色屋顶 which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.较为内部温度 表面温度高77华氏度 Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation华盛顿在去年实际上带领了这个国家 in new green roofs installed, and they’re funding this in part建立绿色屋顶 而他们也通过 thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.5分钱的塑料袋税收来为这项工程提供资金 They’re splitting the cost of installing these green roofs他们同时与家庭和建筑所有者 with home and building owners.共同分担建设绿色屋顶的费用 The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact这种屋顶不仅能调节城市热岛效应 but they save energy, and therefore money,同时还能节约能源 the emissions that cause climate change,金钱以及减少温室气体 and they also reduce stormwater runoff.同时也能起到排水效果 So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.因此有些解决酷暑的手段能够带来双赢第三点 Third, adapting to rising seas.适应海平面上升 Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,海平面上升威胁沿海地区生态 even major cities. This is what one to two meters农业系统甚至主要城市 这是一 of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.两米左右海平面上升在湄公河看起来的样子 That’s where half of Vietnam’s rice is grown.那里是越南一半粮食的产地 Infrastructure is going to be affected.基础设施将会被影响 Airports around the world are located on the coast.通往全世界的机场就建立在这里 It makes sense, right? There’s open space,这很合理 对吧?因为这里是一片空地 the planes can take off and land without worrying about飞机可以起飞降落而不用担心 creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.产生噪音或去躲避高楼大厦 Here’s just one example, San Francisco Airport,这里只是一个例子 with 16 inches or more of flooding.旧金山机场受16英尺左右的洪水泛滥袭击 Imagine the staggering cost of protecting想像一下用于保护 this vital infrastructure with levees.重要基础设施的堤坝的费用 But there might be some changes in store但是与此同时可能有 that you might not imagine. For example,你不能预测的变化 planes require more runway for takeoff比如飞机需要更多的跑道去起飞 because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.因为高温 不稠密的空气 不能提供足够的升力 San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars旧金山还花费四千万美元 to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,去反思和重建下水道处理系统 as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,因为像这样的排水渠口也可能被海水淹没 causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria从而危害植物 that are needed to treat the waste.滋生细菌需要建立设施来处理这些浪费 So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted因此需要更新这些排水管道 to shut seawater off from entering the system.防止海水进入排水系统 Beyond these technical solutions, our work除了这些技术层面的措施意外 at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities我们位于乔治城气候中心和社区共同工作 encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available鼓励他们参考现存的法律和政策 and to consider how they can accommodate change.并且考虑如何才能适应变化譬如 For example, in land use, which areas do you want用地 哪片地区你想要 to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,通过用建设防波堤的方式去保护 alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,再比方通过升高建筑 to allow the migration of important natural systems,或向后搬迁去允许重要的自然系统迁徙 such as wetlands or beaches?比方说湿地或者沙滩? Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,这里同时有其余的例子 the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.在英国泰晤士河保护伦敦免遭于风暴潮袭击 The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network亚洲城市气候变迁韧性组织 is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.正在修复类似于红树林的重要的生态系统 These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,这些生态系统不仅仅是本身是重要的 but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.而且同时充当了缓冲区的作用来保护内陆地区 New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,纽约在暴风雨面前显得十分脆弱 as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,就想你在这块指示牌上看到的一样 纽约同时也经不住海平面上升 and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.和暴风雨 正如你从这幅纽约地铁涨水图中看见的一样 But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates但是当我们返回到地面 这些上升的地铁通风格栏 for the subway system show that solutions can be both系统提醒我们措施可以同时 functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,是有功能效应且引人注意的 事实上 San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned纽约旧金山和伦敦 设计师们已经设想出了 ways to better integrate the natural and built environments能更加契合自然并且 with climate change in mind.兼顾应对自然变化的建设方法 I think these are inspiring examples of what’s possible我认为这些设想都是十分打动人心的例子 when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.让我们认为自己有能力去改变这个世界 But now, a word of caution.但是现在 Adaptation’s too important to be left to the experts.请谨记着对这些专家而言适应也是十分重要的为什么? Why? Well, there are no experts.因为就没有所谓的专家 We’re entering uncharted territory, and yet我们正在进入一个全新的领域 our expertise and our systems are based on the past.而目前为止我们的专长和系统都仅仅是建立于过去的 “Stationarity” is the notion that we can anticipate the future“平稳”是我们将使用于未来的准则 based on the past, and plan accordingly,基于经验 同时随机应变 and this principle governs much of our engineering,与此同时 这也是一个领导我们当今工程 our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,当今设计核心基础设施 城市排水系统 building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.建筑规范 甚至用水权以及其余判例的词 But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.但是我们在也不能仅仅依靠建立规范了 We’re operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations我们已经超如了地球上已经恪守了成千上万年 that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.的二氧化碳浓度限制 The larger point I’m trying to make is this.我在这里想说的是 It’s up to us to look at our homes and our communities,这是我们的责任去照顾我们的家园和社会 our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,我们的脆弱且易暴露于危险之中的家园 and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,不仅仅是去找寻一个生存的办法 而是一个繁荣兴旺的办法 and it’s up to us to plan and to prepare而且这是我们的责任去规划和准备 and to call on our government leaders and require them和提醒我们的政府领导并且要求他们 to do the same, even while they address去做同样的事 即便与此同时他们正在 the underlying causes of climate change.强调潜伏的气候变化原因 There are no quick fixes.这没有权宜之计 There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.这里没有完全之策 We’re all learning by doing.我们只有从实践中学习 But the operative word is doing.关键词是做去 Thank you. (Applause)去实践谢谢 (Applause)(掌声)(掌声)
  • 2021-08-25构建城市之改变全球版图!我想让各位重新想象地球生命的组织架构I want you to reimagine how life is organized on earth. 把整个星球当作我们的身体Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit. 它的骨骼就是交通系统 有公路、铁路、The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways, 桥梁、隧道、航线、海港bridges and tunnels, air and seaports 这些让我们得以在大陆间穿行that enable our mobility across the continents. 驱动人体的血液循环系统The vascular system that powers the body 就是石油、天然气管道 还有电网are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids. 它们分配能源that distribute energy. 主管通讯的神经系统And the nervous system of communications 就是网络、电缆、卫星、电话、广播is the Internet cables, satellites, cellular networks 它们让人类共享信息and data centers that allow us to share information. 这个无限扩张的基础设施网络This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix 已经包含了6400万公里的公路already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads, 400万公里的铁路four million kilometers of railways, 200万公里的管道two million kilometers of pipelines 还有100万公里的网络电缆and one million kilometers of Internet cables. 国界又如何呢?What about international borders? 国界的总长度不到50万公里We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders. 让我们绘制一幅更好的世界地图Let’s build a better map of the world. 我们可以从打破旧的流言开始And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology. 有一个说法是历史系学生很熟悉的:There’s a saying with which all students of history are familiar: 地理就是宿命“Geography is destiny.” 听起来好沉重 对吧?Sounds so grave, doesn’t it? 这就是句宿命论的格言It’s such a fatalistic adage. 它告诉我们 内陆的国家注定就是贫穷的It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor, 小国家没法逃脱大邻居的控制that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors, 漫长的距离是无法逾越的that vast distances are insurmountable. 但是在我的每次环球旅行中But every journey I take around the world, 我看到一个更伟大的力量席卷地球:I see an even greater force sweeping the planet: 互联性connectivity. 这个全球的互联革命 它所有的形式The global connectivity revolution, in all of its forms — 交通、能源、通信transportation, energy and communications — 让一切获得了质变 包括人类的流动性has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people, 还有商品、资源、知识of goods, of resources, of knowledge, 以至于我们无法 将地理与这些因素分立开来such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it. 事实上 我认为这两股力量是融汇合一的In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together 我把它称为“互联地理”into what I call “connectography.” 互联地理代表了质的飞跃Connectography represents a quantum leap 包括人类、资源和思路的流动性in the mobility of people, resources and ideas, 然而它是一次进化but it is an evolution, 这种全球进化是从政治地理an evolution of the world from political geography, 我们依照法律分割世界的方式which is how we legally divide the world, 转变为功能地理to functional geography, 我们实际运用世界的方式which is how we actually use the world, 从国家与边界的讨论 转为基础设施与供应链的讨论from nations and borders, to infrastructure and supply chains. 我们的地球系统正在进化Our global system is evolving 从19世纪垂直一体化的帝国from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century, 变成20世纪横向相互依存的国家through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century, 直到21世纪的国际网络化文明into a global network civilization in the 21st century. 互联而非主权Connectivity, not sovereignty, 已经成为人类的组织原则has become the organizing principle of the human species. (掌声)(Applause) 我们正在变成这种国际网络化文明We are becoming this global network civilization 因为我们就在建造它because we are literally building it. 全世界的国防预算和军事开销总和All of the world’s defense budgets and military spending taken together 每年接近两万亿美元total just under two trillion dollars per year. 与此同时 国际的基础设施建设Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending 预计会突破每年九万亿美元is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year 就在接下来的十年时间within the coming decade. 其实理应如此And, well, it should. 我们所利用的基础设施配置We have been living off an infrastructure stock 只够三十亿世界人口使用meant for a world population of three billion, 而我们的人口 要超过七十亿朝八十亿迈进as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion 最终会达到九十亿甚至更多and eventually nine billion and more. 根据以往经验 我们应该花费大约一万亿美金As a rule of thumb, we should spend about one trillion dollars 为了满足每十亿人口的基本基础设施需求on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world. 亚洲的基础设施领先于全球是毫无疑问的Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead. 在2015年 中国宣布成立In 2015, China announced the creation 亚洲基础设施投资银行of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 它与一系列其它组织一道which together with a network of other organizations 旨在建设一个钢铁与丝绸的商路网aims to construct a network of iron and silk roads, 从上海延伸到里斯本stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon. 而随着这个地表工程的展开And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds, 我们可能会在未来40年 花更多钱建设基础设施we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years, 未来的40年 会比以往4000年we will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years, 建造更多的基础设施than we have in the past 4,000 years. 现在让我们停下来思考思考Now let’s stop and think about it for a minute. 我们花了这么多钱 来建造这些国际社会的基础Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society 而非发明拆毁这些的工具rather than on the tools to destroy it 这可能有深远的后果can have profound consequences. 连通性是我们优化Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution 全球人民和资源分布的方法of people and resources around the world. 这是人类做到“1+1>2”的办法It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts. 我相信这是正在发生的事I believe that is what is happening. 互联性在21世纪有另一个附属的超级浪潮:Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century: 全球范围的城市化planetary urbanization. 城市是最能定义我们的基础设施Cities are the infrastructures that most define us. 到2030年世界人口超过三分之二By 2030, more than two thirds of the world’s population 会住在城市里will live in cities. 这些可不只是地图上的小点点And these are not mere little dots on the map, 他们是延伸上百公里的群岛but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers. 我们现在在温哥华Here we are in Vancouver, 卡斯卡迪亚走廊的起点at the head of the Cascadia Corridor 它一直往南延伸通过美国边境直到西雅图that stretches south across the US border to Seattle. 超级科技中心——硅谷The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley 北起旧金山 南至圣何塞begins north of San Francisco down to San Jose 一路跨过海湾到奥克兰and across the bay to Oakland. 洛杉矶城现在已经扩张到了圣迭戈The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego 甚至跨过墨西哥边境到了蒂华纳across the Mexican border to Tijuana. 圣迭戈和蒂华纳现在已经共享一个机场了San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal 你可以从机场直接到两个国家之一where you can exit into either country. 最终 一个高速铁路网可能连接整个太平洋脊柱:Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific spine. 美国东北部的人口稠密区 始于波士顿跨过纽约America’s northeastern megalopolis begins in Boston through New York 直到费城还有华盛顿and Philadelphia to Washington. 这里有超过五千万人口It contains more than 50 million people 也有计划建设一个高铁网络and also has plans for a high-speed rail network. 但是只有在亚洲我们才真正看到大城市的互联But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together. 从东京经过名古屋到大阪这一条延绵的光带This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka 有着超过八千万的人口contains more than 80 million people 承载着大部分的日本经济and most of Japan’s economy. 这就是世界上最大的特大城市It is the world’s largest megacity. 目前是的For now. 然而在中国特大城市群正在诞生But in China, megacity clusters are coming together 人口数量可达到一亿with populations reaching 100 million people. 北京附近的渤海湾The Bohai Rim around Beijing, 上海附近的长江三角洲The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai 还有珠江三角洲and the Pearl River Delta, 从香港向北延伸至广州stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou. 在中部地区And in the middle, 重庆的成都特大城市群the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster, 这里的地理足迹几乎可以与whose geographic footprint is almost the same size 同等大小的奥地利相媲美as the country of Austria. 而且这些特大城市群中的任一个And any number of these megacity clusters 都有将近两万亿美金的国内生产总值has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars — 这几乎跟现在的印度一样了that’s almost the same as all of India today. 所以想象一下 如果国际的外交组织比如G20So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, such as the G20, 把会员资格按照经济规模来评定were to base their membership on economic size 而非按照主权国家rather than national representation. 有一些中国的特大城市 就可以入选并且有自己的席位Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table, 然而另一些完整的国家 比如阿根廷或印度尼西亚就会落选while entire countries, like Argentina or Indonesia would be out. 再看看印度 它的人口数很快就要超过中国Moving to India, whose population will soon exceed that of China, 它同样有一些特大城市群it too has a number of megacity clusters, 比如说德里首都地区such as the Delhi Capital Region 还有孟买地区and Mumbai. 在中东地区In the Middle East, 大德黑兰地区正在吸收伊朗三分之一的人口Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran’s population. 埃及八千万人口中的大部分Most of Egypt’s 80 million people 都住在开罗和亚历山大城之间的走廊地区live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria. 而在海湾地区一连串的城邦在形成And in the gulf, a necklace of city-states is forming, 从巴林和卡塔尔from Bahrain and Qatar, 穿过阿联酋到阿曼首都马斯喀特through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman. 还有拉各斯And then there’s Lagos, 非洲最大的城市也是尼日利亚的商业中心Africa’s largest city and Nigeria’s commercial hub. 它计划建设铁路网It has plans for a rail network 这可以让它成为大西洋沿海走廊的支柱城市that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor, 整条走廊经过贝宁、多哥、加纳stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana, 一直到科特迪瓦的首都阿比让to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast. 但是这些国家都在拉各斯城郊But these countries are suburbs of Lagos. 在特大城市构成的世界里In a megacity world, 国家可以是城市的郊区countries can be suburbs of cities. 到2030年 世界上会有接近50个这样的特大城市群By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world. 所以哪幅地图信息更多呢?So which map tells you more? 是我们传统的地图 标注着分散的200个国家Our traditional map of 200 discrete nations 挂在大部分的墙上that hang on most of our walls, 还是这一幅描绘着50个特大城市群的地图?or this map of the 50 megacity clusters? 其实就算这幅都是不完整的And yet, even this is incomplete 因为你不可能彻底了解 每一个独立的特大城市because you cannot understand any individual megacity 除非明白它与其他城市的关联without understanding its connections to the others. 人们搬迁到城市是为了互相联系People move to cities to be connected, 而互联性正是城市发展繁荣的原因and connectivity is why these cities thrive. 不论是哪些城市 像圣保罗、伊斯坦布尔或者莫斯科Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow, 它们的GDP都超过三分之一has a GDP approaching or exceeding one third of one half 或是接近全国GDP的一半of their entire national GDP. 然而同等重要的是But equally importantly, 你不能单独计算它们独立的价值you cannot calculate any of their individual value 除非理解了人口流动的作用without understanding the role of the flows of people, 还有资金、科技的流动of finance, of technology 它们让特大城市得以繁荣that enable them to thrive. 以南非的豪登省为例Take the Gauteng province of South Africa, 它包含了约翰内斯堡和南非首都比勒陀利亚which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria. 它占了南非三分之一以上的GDPIt too represents just over a third of South Africa’s GDP. 但同等重要的是 几乎每一个跨国企业But equally importantly, it is home to the offices 都选择入驻此地of almost every single multinational corporation 它们直接为南非注资that invests directly into South Africa 甚至向整个非洲大陆注资and indeed, into the entire African continent. 城市渴望成为国际价值链中的一环Cities want to be part of global value chains. 它们渴望成为国际劳动分工的一环They want to be part of this global division of labor. 这是城市的思考方式That is how cities think. 我从没见过一个市长会这样说:I’ve never met a mayor who said to me, 我想让我的城市与世隔绝“I want my city to be cut off.” 他们知道 网络就像属于自己国家一样They know that their cities belong as much 他们的城市也属于全球化网络文明to the global network civilization as to their home countries. 如今对于很多人来说 城市化造成了大众恐慌Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay. 他们觉得城市正在毁坏地球They think cities are wrecking the planet. 然而现在But right now, 有超过200个跨城市学习网络正在发展繁荣there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving. 这数量几乎与所有的跨政府组织That is as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations 一样多that we have. 所有的跨城市网络都有一个共同目标And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose, 也是21世纪人类的首要目标:mankind’s number one priority in the 21st century: 可持续的城市化sustainable urbanization. 它有效吗?Is it working? 让我们看看气候变化情况Let’s take climate change. 我们很清楚纽约和巴黎的一次次峰会We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris 并不会减少温室气体排放is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 但是我们可以看到在城市之间传输科技But what we can see is that transferring technology 还有知识、政策等等and knowledge and policies between cities 的确可以减少经济体的碳排放强度is how we’ve actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies. 城市在互相取长补短Cities are learning from each other. 例如怎么建设零排放建筑How to install zero-emissions buildings, 怎么实施电动车分享计划how to deploy electric car-sharing systems. 在中国的大城市In major Chinese cities, 他们正在实施车辆限行政策they’re imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets. 在很多西方城市In many Western cities, 年轻人甚至都不想开车了young people don’t even want to drive anymore. 城市曾是问题的一部分Cities have been part of the problem, 但现在是解决方案的一部分now they are part of the solution. 社会不平等是可持续城市化的另一个重大挑战Inequality is the other great challenge to achieving sustainable urbanization. 当我跑遍全世界的特大城市When I travel through megacities from end to end — 花了许多个日夜it takes hours and days — 我感受到了悬殊差距造成的悲剧I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity 就在同一片区域里within the same geography. 然而国际的金融资产And yet, our global stock of financial assets 从来没有如此之多has never been larger, 接近三百万亿美金approaching 300 trillion dollars. 这几乎是全世界GDP总和的四倍That’s almost four times the actual GDP of the world. 我们在金融危机后背负了极多的债务We have taken on such enormous debts since the financial crisis, 但是我们把钱投资在了包容性增长吗?but have we invested them in inclusive growth? 不 还没有No, not yet. 只有我们建造了充足、价格实惠的公共住房Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing, 只有我们投资建造了 耐用的交通网络when we invest in robust transportation networks 使得人们可以身体和信息上 都实现互联互通to allow people to connect to each other both physically and digitally, 我们分离的 城市和社会that’s when our divided cities and societies 才能开始成为一个整体will come to feel whole again. (掌声)(Applause) 这就是为什么基础建设项目And that is why infrastructure has just been included 已经被包括在联合国可持续发展目标中in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, 因为它激活了大众生产力because it enables all the others. 我们的政治经济领袖Our political and economic leaders 慢慢意识到互联性并不是搞慈善are learning that connectivity is not charity, 而是一个机会it’s opportunity. 这就是为什么我们的经济社会必须明白And that’s why our financial community needs to understand 互联性是21世纪最重要的一种资产that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century. 如今城市可以让世界更加可持续Now, cities can make the world more sustainable, 它们让世界更加公正they can make the world more equitable, 我也相信城市间的互联I also believe that connectivity between cities 可以让世界更和平can make the world more peaceful. 如果我们看看那些边境间联系紧密的地区If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders, 我们看到更多的交易和投资we see more trade, more investment 地区也更稳定and more stability. 我们都知道二战后欧洲的故事We all know the story of Europe after World War II, 工业合作推进了发展过程where industrial integration kicked off a process 最终构成了如今和平的欧盟that gave rise to today’s peaceful European Union. 而且你们还能看到俄罗斯And you can see that Russia, by the way, 它是全世界的各强国中互联性最差的国家is the least connected of major powers in the international system. 这要追溯到很久以前才能解释当今的冲突问题And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today. 与别国利害关系不强的国家Countries that have less stake in the system 往往不愿冒风险打破这种状态also have less to lose in disturbing it. 在北美 地图上意义最重大的一条线In North America, the lines that matter most on the map 并不是美加边境或者美墨边境are not the US-Canada border or the US-Mexico border, 而是公路、铁路、管道的交织网络but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines 还有电力网络 甚至是运河系统and electricity grids and even water canals 一个和谐的北美联盟因这些而形成that are forming an integrated North American union. 北美不需要更多的壁垒 它需要更多的连接North America does not need more walls, it needs more connections. (掌声)(Applause) 但是互联性的真正前景 会在殖民统治后的地区体现But the real promise of connectivity is in the postcolonial world. 这部分地区 它们的边境是历史上最多变的All of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary 一代又一代领导者and where generations of leaders 相互的冲突非常激烈have had hostile relations with each other. 但是一群新的领导者逐渐上位But now a new group of leaders has come into power 把过往冲突逐渐抹去and is burying the hatchet. 以东南亚为例 他们准备建设高铁网络Let’s take Southeast Asia, where high-speed rail networks 连接曼谷到新加坡are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore 还有越南到缅甸的商业走廊and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar. 如今这个6亿人口的地区调配了它的农业资源Now this region of 600 million people coordinates its agricultural resources 还有工业输出and its industrial output. 它逐渐进化为我称作的“泛亚洲大同”It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana, 东南亚国家的和平地区a peace among Southeast Asian nations. 类似的现象在东非也发生了A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa, 那里的六个国家where a half dozen countries 投资建设铁路和多式联运通道are investing in railways and multimodal corridors 于是内陆的国家可以将商品运输到市场上so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market. 如今这些国家在调控它们的资源Now these countries coordinate their utilities 调整它们的投资政策and their investment policies. 他们同样进化成“泛非洲大同”They, too, are evolving into a Pax Africana. 我们知道有一个地区可以利用这样的思维方式One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking 那就是中东地区is the Middle East. 随着阿拉伯政权的悲剧倒台As Arab states tragically collapse, 除了开罗、贝鲁特和巴格达等古城外what is left behind but the ancient cities, 还能留下什么呢?such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad? 事实上 阿拉伯世界的将近4亿人In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world 几乎全数城市化了are almost entirely urbanized. 作为完整的城市或社会As societies, as cities, 它们的水资源可能丰富或是匮乏they are either water rich or water poor, 能源可能丰富或是匮乏energy rich or energy poor. 唯一能够解决这种失调的办法And the only way to correct these mismatches 并不是通过战争和边境隔离is not through more wars and more borders, 而是通过更多的管道、运河连接but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals. 很可惜 这还不是中东地区的图景Sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East. 但理应如此But it should be, 一个互联的“泛阿拉伯大同”a connected Pax Arabia, 从内部互相整合internally integrated 并与它们的邻居在生产力方面联系:例如欧洲、亚洲和非洲and productively connected to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa. 如今 看上去互联性并不是我们立即想要的东西Now, it may not seem like connectivity is what we want right now 尤其对于世界上最动荡的区域towards the world’s most turbulent region. 但我们由历史规律得知互联性是唯一的方法But we know from history that more connectivity is the only way 让一个地区获得长期的稳定to bring about stability in the long run. 因为我们知道在一个又一个地区Because we know that in region after region, 互联性是新的现实connectivity is the new reality. 城市和国家在逐渐整合Cities and countries are learning to aggregate 成为更和平、更繁荣的整体into more peaceful and prosperous wholes. 但是亚洲才是真正的试金石But the real test is going to be Asia. 互联性可否克服 远东强国之间Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry 种种竞争行为呢?among the great powers of the Far East? 毕竟这里是 第三次世界大战理应爆发的地方After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out. 自从二十多年前冷战结束之后Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter century ago, 至少有六次大规模战争被预测 会在这个地区发生at least six major wars have been predicted for this region. 但没有一个真正爆发But none have broken out. 以中国和台湾为例Take China and Taiwan. 在20世纪90年代 所有人都觉得这是三战的背景In the 1990s, this was everyone’s leading World War III scenario. 但是自那时起But since that time, 海峡两岸之间的 贸易和投资额变得非常高the trade and investment volumes across the straits have become so intense 以至于去年十一月that last November, 双方领导人举行了一次历史性峰会leaders from both sides held a historic summit 探讨未来如何实现和平统一to discuss eventual peaceful reunification. 即使是台湾的一个党派And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan 今年早些时候还主张台湾独立that’s pro-independence earlier this year 在进行选举时也没有否认这种基础的变革力量does not undermine this fundamental dynamic. 中日两国之间的敌对关系有更长的历史China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry 而且最近在部署海军和空军and have been deploying their air forces and navies 在岛屿争端中互相展示军力to show their strength in island disputes. 然而在最近几年But in recent years, 日本在中国做了历史上最多的对外投资Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China. 日本汽车在中国的销量屡创纪录Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there. 各位猜猜今天永久居住在日本的外国人And guess where the largest number of foreigners 最多来自哪个国家呢?residing in Japan today comes from? 你猜对了:就是中国!You guessed it: China. 中国和印度打过一场大战China and India have fought a major war 还有三处突出的边界争端问题and have three outstanding border disputes, 然而如今印度是but today India is the second largest shareholder 亚投行的第二持股国in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. 他们正在建设一条贸易通路起于印度东北部They’re building a trade corridor stretching from Northeast India 穿过缅甸和孟加拉国 终于中国华南地区through Myanmar and Bangladesh to Southern China. 他们的贸易额已经从10年前的大约200亿美元Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago 发展到如今的800亿美元to 80 billion dollars today. 持有核武器的印度和巴基斯坦打了三场战争Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars 持续地争夺克什米尔地区and continue to dispute Kashmir, 但是他们同样在商讨 一个最惠国贸易协定but they’re also negotiating a most-favored-nation trade agreement 并且希望建设一条管道and want to complete a pipeline 始于伊朗 穿过巴基斯坦 终于印度stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India. 让我们再谈谈伊朗And let’s talk about Iran. 两年前的我们不是觉得 对伊朗的战争根本不可避免吗?Wasn’t it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable? 那么为什么现在每个大国 都争着去伊朗做生意呢?Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today? 女士们、先生们Ladies and gentlemen, 我不能担保第三次世界大战 永远不会爆发I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out. 但是我们可以清楚的看到 现在它为什么没有爆发But we can definitely see why it hasn’t happened yet. 即使亚洲一些国家 军力发展速度世界领先Even though Asia is home to the world’s fastest growing militaries, 同样的国家也互相投资数十亿美金these same countries are also investing billions of dollars 来建设基础设施和供应链in each other’s infrastructure and supply chains. 他们更感兴趣的是各自的功能地理特征They are more interested in each other’s functional geography 而非政治地理特征than in their political geography. 这就是为什么领导人要三思 从战争边缘后退几步And that is why their leaders think twice, step back from the brink, 决定去关注经济的合作 而非领土的争端and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions. 我们常常觉得世界就要崩溃了So often it seems like the world is falling apart, 但是互联性的增强but building more connectivity 就是我们把碎片复原的办法is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again, 而且复原得比原来更好much better than before. 当我们通过包装世界And by wrapping the world 用无缝的互联网络覆盖in such seamless physical and digital connectivity, 我们发展走向世界we evolve towards a world 人们可以超越地理限制in which people can rise above their geographic constraints. 我们就是细胞和血管We are the cells and vessels 在这个国际网络中脉动pulsing through these global connectivity networks. 每天 数以亿计的人登上互联网Everyday, hundreds of millions of people go online 与从未谋面的人共同工作and work with people they’ve never met. 每年超过十亿人要跨过国家边界More than one billion people cross borders every year, 而且将会在未来十年升至三十亿and that’s expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade. 我们不只是互联性的建设者We don’t just build connectivity, 我们自身就体现了互联we embody it. 我们是国际网络化文明We are the global network civilization, 而这是我们的地图and this is our map. 这幅地图里 地理不再是我们的宿命A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny. 与之相对 我们的未来有一条更有希望的新准则:Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto: 连接就是命运!connectivity is destiny. 谢谢Thank you. (掌声)(Applause)
  • 2021-08-25混合不同药物会如何?你去看医生的时候做了一些检查So you go to the doctor and get some tests. 医生说你的血脂高The doctor determines that you have high cholesterol 所以吃药会有帮助and you would benefit from medication to treat it. 那么你就买了一盒药So you get a pillbox. 你有信心You have some confidence, 你的医生也有信心 觉得这会对你有帮助your physician has some confidence that this is going to work. 发明这个的药物公司做过很多研究 呈送到FDAThe company that invented it did a lot of studies, submitted it to the FDA. 他们充满怀疑地研究 后来许可了They studied it very carefully, skeptically, they approved it. 他们大概地知道这个药的机理They have a rough idea of how it works, 和药物的副作用they have a rough idea of what the side effects are. 它应该可以It should be OK. 你跟你的医生又谈了一会儿You have a little more of a conversation with your physician 医生对你有点儿担心 因为你有些抑郁and the physician is a little worried because you’ve been blue, 感觉你不是自己You haven’t felt like yourself, 你对生活不像以前那么充满兴趣you haven’t been able to enjoy things in life quite as much as you usually do. 你的医生说 “你知道吗 我觉得你有些抑郁Physician says, “You know, I think you have some depression. 我会给你另一种药“I’m going to have to give you another pill.” 所以 现在我们所谈论的是两种药物So now we’re talking about two medications. 这种药 上百万人服用过This pill also — millions of people have taken it, 公司做过很多研究 FDA许可的 不会错the company did studies, the FDA looked at it — all good. 你会想应该没问题Think things should go OK. 应该没问题Think things should go OK. 好了 等一下Well, wait a minute. 我们对两种药物一起服用研究了多少?How much have we studied these two together? 这可是很难做到的Well, it’s very hard to do that. 实际上 还从来没有In fact, it’s not traditionally done. 在药物上市之后 我们完全依赖于“市场后监测”We totally depend on what we call “post-marketing surveillance,” after the drugs hit the market. 我们如何能够弄清楚How can we figure out if bad things are happening 在两种 三种或五种药物between two medications? 混合之后 会有哪些坏处呢?Three? Five? Seven? 问问你最喜欢的被诊断了 几个不同疾病的人Ask your favorite person who has several diagnoses 他们在吃多少种药how many medications they’re on. 我为什么关心这个问题呢?Why do I care about this problem? 我对这非常在意I care about it deeply. 我是重视信息和数据的人 真的 以我的意见来说I’m an informatics and data science guy and really, in my opinion, 唯一的能够理解这些药物相互作用 的希望the only hope — only hope — to understand these interactions 就是平衡不同来源的数据is to leverage lots of different sources of data 以便弄清楚药物在一起什么时候安全in order to figure out when drugs can be used together safely 什么时候不安全and when it’s not so safe. 让我来告诉你们一些数据科学的故事So let me tell you a data science story. 它来自于我的学生尼克And it begins with my student Nick. 我们叫他“尼克” 因为那是他的名字Let’s call him “Nick,” because that’s his name. [笑声](Laughter) 尼克是一个年轻学生Nick was a young student. 我说 “你知道吗 尼克 我们需要理解药物的工作机理I said, “You know, Nick, we have to understand how drugs work 不仅是它们单独作用 还有它们的协同机理and how they work together and how they work separately, 目前我们还知道得不多and we don’t have a great understanding. 但FDA已经提供了一个惊人的数据库But the FDA has made available an amazing database. 是关于反作用事件的数据库It’s a database of adverse events. 他们发表在互联网上They literally put on the web — 可公开使用 你现在就可以下载publicly available, you could all download it right now — 成千上万例的hundreds of thousands of adverse event reports 从病人 医生 公司 药房的反作用报告from patients, doctors, companies, pharmacists. 这些报告很简单:And these reports are pretty simple: 它具有病人所有的疾病it has all the diseases that the patient has, 他们在用的所有药物all the drugs that they’re on, 以及他们所经过的所有的 反作用、副作用and all the adverse events, or side effects, that they experience. 它还不是所有的在美國发生的 反作用事件It is not all of the adverse events that are occurring in America today, 但它有成百上千种药物but it’s hundreds and hundreds of thousands of drugs. 所以我对尼克说So I said to Nick, “让我们考虑葡萄糖“Let’s think about glucose. 血糖很重要 我们知道它和糖尿病相关Glucose is very important, and we know it’s involved with diabetes. 让我们看看是否理解血糖的反应Let’s see if we can understand glucose response. 我让尼克去做了 尼克又回来了I sent Nick off. Nick came back. “罗斯”他说“Russ,” he said, “我已经根据这个数据库 创建了一个分类“I’ve created a classifier that can look at the side effects of a drug 可以查看一个药物的副作用based on looking at this database, 并告诉你这个药物是否会改变血糖”and can tell you whether that drug is likely to change glucose or not.” 他这样做了 而且在他来说很简单He did it. It was very simple, in a way. 他把所有我们知道会改变血糖的药物He took all the drugs that were known to change glucose 还有很多不会改变血糖的都分了类and a bunch of drugs that don’t change glucose, 他说 “他们的副作用有不同吗?”and said, “What’s the difference in their side effects? 在疲劳?胃口?以及排尿习惯方面有不同吗?Differences in fatigue? In appetite? In urination habits?” 所有这些指标都给予他 一个很好的预测All those things conspired to give him a really good predictor. 他说 “罗斯 我能以93%的精确度预测He said, “Russ, I can predict with 93 percent accuracy 一个药物会改变血糖”when a drug will change glucose.” 我说 “尼克 那很好”I said, “Nick, that’s great.” 他是一个年轻的学生 你得帮他建立自信He’s a young student, you have to build his confidence. “但是尼克 有一个问题“But Nick, there’s a problem. 要让这世界上的每一个医生都知道 所有改变血糖的药物It’s that every physician in the world knows all the drugs that change glucose, 这是我们作业的核心because it’s core to our practice. 很好 做的好 但并不是那么有趣So it’s great, good job, but not really that interesting, 绝对不能发表definitely not publishable.” [笑声](Laughter) 他说 “我知道 罗斯 我知道你会那样说”He said, “I know, Russ. I thought you might say that.” 尼克很聪明Nick is smart. “我想到你会这么说 所以我做了另一个试验“I thought you might say that, so I did one other experiment. 我查看了在这个数据中 服用两种药物的病人I looked at people in this database who were on two drugs, 我查看相似的 血糖改变信号and I looked for signals similar, glucose-changing signals, 那些服用两种药物的人for people taking two drugs, 他们只服用其中任一种药物时 血糖没有改变where each drug alone did not change glucose, 但一起的时候 我看到了很强的信号 “but together I saw a strong signal.” 我说”喔!你真聪明 好主意 给我看看列表 “And I said, “Oh! You’re clever. Good idea. Show me the list.” 有很多药物 但并不令人兴奋And there’s a bunch of drugs, not very exciting. 但在列表上有两种药物 吸引了我的眼球:But what caught my eye was, on the list there were two drugs: paroxetine 或 Paxil 一种抗抑郁药物paroxetine, or Paxil, an antidepressant; 和pravastatin 或Pravachol 抗胆固醇药物and pravastatin, or Pravachol, a cholesterol medication. 然后我说 “呵 上百万的美国人都在用这两种药物”And I said, “Huh. There are millions of Americans on those two drugs.” 事实上 我们后来知道In fact, we learned later, 一千五百万的美国人在用paroxetine 而同时 一千五百万人服用pravastatin15 million Americans on paroxetine at the time, 15 million on pravastatin, 我们估计 有一百万人 两者同时服用and a million, we estimated, on both. 所以是一百万人So that’s a million people 可能在血糖上会有问题who might be having some problems with their glucose 但会不会他在FDA数据库的异想天开if this machine-learning mumbo jumbo that he did in the FDA database 只是瞎猫碰上了死耗子呢?actually holds up. 但我说 “还是不能发表”But I said, “It’s still not publishable, 因为我喜欢你用搜索技术because I love what you did with the mumbo jumbo, 所做出来的奇思妙想with the machine learning, 但它不是我们真正的标准证据but it’s not really standard-of-proof evidence that we have.” 所以我们必须再做些其他的So we have to do something else. 让我们进入斯坦福的医疗记录电子库Let’s go into the Stanford electronic medical record. 我们拷贝了一份 用在做研究上的话 这是允许的We have a copy of it that’s OK for research, 我们去掉了个人信息we removed identifying information. 然后我说 “让我们看看同时服用这两种药物的人And I said, “Let’s see if people on these two drugs 和他们的血糖问题”have problems with their glucose.” 在斯坦福的医疗记录里 有成千上万的人Now there are thousands and thousands of people 在服用paroxetine和pravastatinin the Stanford medical records that take paroxetine and pravastatin. 但我们需要很特别的病人But we needed special patients. 我们需要服用其中一种药物的病人 有血糖纪录We needed patients who were on one of them and had a glucose measurement, 然后在服用第二种以后 有另一次血糖纪录then got the second one and had another glucose measurement, 并且是在一个比较合理的阶段以内 比如像两个月all within a reasonable period of time — something like two months. 当我们这样做以后 我们发现了10个病人And when we did that, we found 10 patients. 然而 10个中有8个在血糖上有变化However, eight out of the 10 had a bump in their glucose 当他们服用第二个P药物的时候 我们把这个叫做P和Pwhen they got the second P — we call this P and P — 当他们服用第二个P时when they got the second P. 可以是任意一个在先 服用第二个后Either one could be first, the second one comes up, 血糖升高了20mg/dlglucose went up 20 milligrams per deciliter. 给一个小小的提示Just as a reminder, 当你没有糖尿病 正常的四处活动时you walk around normally, if you’re not diabetic, 你的血糖是90with a glucose of around 90. 如果上升到120 125And if it gets up to 120, 125, 你的医生就会认为是潜在的糖尿病your doctor begins to think about a potential diagnosis of diabetes. 所以 一次上升了20单位 相当明显So a 20 bump — pretty significant. 我说 “尼克 这太好了I said, “Nick, this is very cool. 但很抱歉 我们还是没有论文But, I’m sorry, we still don’t have a paper, 因为这是10个病人 而且 让我想想because this is 10 patients and — give me a break — 我们没有足够的病人”it’s not enough patients.” 所以我们说 我们还能怎么做呢?So we said, what can we do? 后来我们决定打电话 给我们在Harvard和Vanderbilt的朋友And we said, let’s call our friends at Harvard and Vanderbilt, 在波士顿的哈佛和纳什维尔的 范德比尔who also — Harvard in Boston, Vanderbilt in Nashville, 也都有和我们相似的医疗电子记录who also have electronic medical records similar to ours. 我们想看看他们是否能够找到 相似的病人Let’s see if they can find similar patients 服用一种P 然后另一种Pwith the one P, the other P, the glucose measurements 并在我们需要的那个范围内 做过血糖检测in that range that we need. 上帝祝福他们 范德贝尔 在一周内发现40个这样的病人God bless them, Vanderbilt in one week found 40 such patients, 都有同样的血糖增长same trend. 哈佛发现100个同样的病人 也有着一样的增长Harvard found 100 patients, same trend. 所以 最后我们有150个病人 来自三个不同的的医学中心So at the end, we had 150 patients from three diverse medical centers 这150个病人的记录告诉我们 这些使用这两种药物的病人that were telling us that patients getting these two drugs 在某种程度上都有血糖的明显改变were having their glucose bump somewhat significantly. 更令人感兴趣的是 我们没有算上糖尿病人More interestingly, we had left out diabetics, 因为糖尿病人的血糖本身就是 一本糊涂账because diabetics already have messed up glucose. 当我们查看糖尿病人的血糖When we looked at the glucose of diabetics, 它通常是升高60mg以上 而不是只有20it was going up 60 milligrams per deciliter, not just 20. 这是一个了不起的结果 然后我们说 “我们一定要发表这个结果”This was a big deal, and we said, “We’ve got to publish this.” 我们呈送了文章We submitted the paper. 全是数据证据It was all data evidence, 来自FDA 来自斯坦福data from the FDA, data from Stanford, 来自范德贝尔 来自哈佛data from Vanderbilt, data from Harvard. 我们还没做一个实验We had not done a single real experiment. 但我们很紧张But we were nervous. 所以当文章在审查阶段 尼克去了实验室So Nick, while the paper was in review, went to the lab. 我们找到了一些懂得实验的人We found somebody who knew about lab stuff. 我做不了那个活I don’t do that. 我看病人 我不用移液器I take care of patients, but I don’t do pipettes. 他们教我们怎样喂老鼠吃药They taught us how to feed mice drugs. 我们拿过老鼠 给它们喂一种P paroxetineWe took mice and we gave them one P, paroxetine. 我们又给某些老鼠pravastatinWe gave some other mice pravastatin. 我们给了第三组老鼠两种药And we gave a third group of mice both of them. 老鼠的血糖And lo and behold, glucose went up 20 to 60 milligrams per deciliter 升高了20-60毫克/分升in the mice. 所以 基于尽有信息考据的文章 被接受了So the paper was accepted based on the informatics evidence alone, 但是我门在文章的结尾 加上了一个小小的注解but we added a little note at the end, 顺便说一下 如果你给老鼠喂两种药 血糖会升高saying, oh by the way, if you give these to mice, it goes up. 这太棒了 故事在此应该了结了That was great, and the story could have ended there. 但我还要讲六分半钟But I still have six and a half minutes. [笑声](Laughter) 当我们坐在一起 想着这件事时So we were sitting around thinking about all of this, 我记不得是谁说的了 但有人说:and I don’t remember who thought of it, but somebody said, “我好奇那些服用 这两种药的病人“I wonder if patients who are taking these two drugs 是否注意到自己有高血糖的症状are noticing side effects of hyperglycemia. 他们理应注意到的They could and they should. 我们又怎样确定他们 是否真有呢How would we ever determine that?” 我们说:那你怎么做呢?We said, well, what do you do? “如果你在服用一种新药 或者是两种You’re taking a medication, one new medication or two, 然后你有了一种奇怪的感觉and you get a funny feeling. 你会怎么做?What do you do? 你会在谷歌上查找You go to Google 你会在搜索栏上打出 两种药物的名称and type in the two drugs you’re taking or the one drug you’re taking, 然后输入”副作用“and you type in “side effects.” 你会看到什么?”What are you experiencing? 于是我们说还不错So we said OK, 我们可以试着问问谷歌 他们能不能与我们分享搜索记录let’s ask Google if they will share their search logs with us, 然后我们可以通过这些搜索记录so that we can look at the search logs 进而知道病人是否在做这种搜索and see if patients are doing these kinds of searches. 很遗憾的是 谷歌拒绝了我们的请求Google, I am sorry to say, denied our request. 于是我有点闷闷不乐So I was bummed. 当时我在和一个微软公司的同事吃饭I was at a dinner with a colleague who works at Microsoft Research 我说:”我们想要做一个调查and I said, “We wanted to do this study, 但谷歌拒绝了 这真令人烦恼”Google said no, it’s kind of a bummer.” 他说“哦 我们有必应bing搜索啊”He said, “Well, we have the Bing searches.” [笑声](Laughter) 是的Yeah. 这太棒了That’s great. 我感觉我就像要……了一样Now I felt like I was — [笑声](Laughter) 我感觉我就像又在和尼克说话了I felt like I was talking to Nick again. 他在全世界最大的公司工作He works for one of the largest companies in the world, 我不想伤害他的自信心and I’m already trying to make him feel better. 但他说:“不 罗斯…… 你可能不知道But he said, “No, Russ — you might not understand. 我们不只有必应bingWe not only have Bing searches, 但是如果你用IE浏览器 在谷歌上搜索词条but if you use Internet Explorer to do searches at Google, 或是在雅虎 bing上Yahoo, Bing, any … 然后我们将这些搜索信息 为了学术目的自动保存18个月Then, for 18 months, we keep that data for research purposes only.” 我于是说:”你真有两下子!“I said, “Now you’re talking!” 他叫 Eric Horvitz 我在微软的朋友This was Eric Horvitz, my friend at Microsoft. 因此我们就这样做了调查So we did a study 我们先确定了高血糖症患者where we defined 50 words that a regular person might type in 可能会搜索的50个词条if they’re having hyperglycemia, 比如”疲劳“”食欲不振“”尿频“等like “fatigue,” “loss of appetite,” “urinating a lot,” “peeing a lot” — 不好意思 但这些是你可能输入的词语forgive me, but that’s one of the things you might type in. 于是我们有了50个 叫做“肥胖词语”的词条So we had 50 phrases that we called the “diabetes words.” 我们先是确定了基线搜索率And we did first a baseline. 大概0.5-1%的网络搜索And it turns out that about .5 to one percent 含有一个这些词语of all searches on the Internet involve one of those words. 这就是我们的底线比率So that’s our baseline rate. 如果人们输入paroxetine或Paxil —它们是同义词If people type in “paroxetine” or “Paxil” — those are synonyms — 它们其中的一个and one of those words, 那么如果搜索者已经知道了 这个药物术语的话the rate goes up to about two percent of diabetes-type words, 则在肥胖类内容的搜索中 它们出现的概率升高到了大约2%if you already know that there’s that “paroxetine” word. 如果是pravastatin 概率则超过了基线3%If it’s “pravastatin,” the rate goes up to about three percent from the baseline. 如果paroxetine和pravastatin同时出现If both “paroxetine” and “pravastatin” are present in the query, 那么比例则到达了10%it goes up to 10 percent, 这是在那些肥胖类或高血糖类 搜索中a huge three- to four-fold increase 出现我们研究的两种药物的概率的in those searches with the two drugs that we were interested in, 三至四倍的增长and diabetes-type words or hyperglycemia-type words. 我们发表了这个结果We published this, 获取了一些注意and it got some attention. 这个研究值得注意的原因是The reason it deserves attention 病人在通过他们的网上搜索is that patients are telling us their side effects indirectly 向我们间接地传达他们的副作用through their searches. 我们吸引了FDA的注意We brought this to the attention of the FDA. 他们很感兴趣They were interested. 他们建立了社交网站监测项目They have set up social media surveillance programs 和有着可以完成这些项目的设施的to collaborate with Microsoft, 微软合作which had a nice infrastructure for doing this, and others, 在推特网页上to look at Twitter feeds, 脸书上to look at Facebook feeds, 观察人们的搜索内容to look at search logs, 以此来发现一种或多种药物 可能在产生问题的to try to see early signs that drugs, either individually or together, 早期迹象are causing problems. 那么我们由此学到了什么?为什么讲这个故事?What do I take from this? Why tell this story? 第一Well, first of all, 我们现在有了大数据的支持we have now the promise of big data and medium-sized data 来帮助我们了解药物的相互作用to help us understand drug interactions 更本上就是药物的机理and really, fundamentally, drug actions. 药物是怎样起效的?How do drugs work? 这已经创造了一种新的系统This will create and has created a new ecosystem 来了解药物的工作原理 以及优化它们的使用for understanding how drugs work and to optimize their use. 尼克继续从事着这事 他现在是哥伦比亚大学的教授Nick went on; he’s a professor at Columbia now. 他在他的PhD中研究了 成百对的药物He did this in his PhD for hundreds of pairs of drugs. 他发现了几种十分重要的药物反应He found several very important interactions, 于是我们记录了这些结果and so we replicated this 而且我们展示了这种方法and we showed that this is a way that really works 在发现药物相互作用上的可行性for finding drug-drug interactions. 然而 这有几件事However, there’s a couple of things. 我们不只是研究一对药物We don’t just use pairs of drugs at a time. 像我之前说的 有的人同时服用 3.5.7.9种药物As I said before, there are patients on three, five, seven, nine drugs. 他们的九种药物反应有被研究过吗?Have they been studied with respect to their nine-way interaction? 是的 我们确实可以用排列组合 a和b,a和c,a和dYes, we can do pair-wise, A and B, A and C, A and D, 但如果是a,b,c,d,e,f,g全部混在一起呢?but what about A, B, C, D, E, F, G all together, 它们被同一个患者服用being taken by the same patient, 可能会和对方反应perhaps interacting with each other 有可能是让药效增强或是减弱in ways that either makes them more effective or less effective 更甚是始料不及的副作用?or causes side effects that are unexpected? 我们真不知道We really have no idea. 我们可以很自由地使用数据It’s a blue sky, open field for us to use data 来了解药物的协同机理to try to understand the interaction of drugs. 另外两个教训:Two more lessons: 我想让你们想想 我们使用人们I want you to think about the power that we were able to generate 通过他们的药师 医生或是自己 上传的药物反作用案例with the data from people who had volunteered their adverse reactions 那些为斯坦福 哈佛和范德比尔数据库 提供了资料的案例through their pharmacists, through themselves, through their doctors, 来用作研究the people who allowed the databases at Stanford, Harvard, Vanderbilt, 能够产生的力量有多大to be used for research. 人们担心自己的数据被泄露People are worried about data. 他们害怕自己的隐私和信息安全被偷取他们理应这样想They’re worried about their privacy and security — they should be. 因此我们需要安全的网络系统We need secure systems. 但是我们不应该容忍那些 垄断这些数据的网络系统But we can’t have a system that closes that data off, 因为网络资源是在药理方面because it is too rich of a source 创造灵感 创新和发现的of inspiration, innovation and discovery 强大资源for new things in medicine. 我最后想说的是And the final thing I want to say is, 在这个案例中 我们发现了两种药物 十分遗憾in this case we found two drugs and it was a little bit of a sad story. 这两种药物实际上产生了麻烦The two drugs actually caused problems. 它们增加血糖含量They increased glucose. 它们可能让 原本没有糖尿病的人They could throw somebody into diabetes 患上糖尿病who would otherwise not be in diabetes, 所以当你同时使用这两种药时 会千万小心and so you would want to use the two drugs very carefully together, 分开用时也是perhaps not together, 订购药物时做出其他选择make different choices when you’re prescribing. 但也有另一种可能But there was another possibility. 我们可能可以发现 二至三种药物We could have found two drugs or three drugs 能通过有益的方式相互反应that were interacting in a beneficial way. 我们也可以发现药物的新作用We could have found new effects of drugs 单独不具有的that neither of them has alone, 但是在一起服用 不是产生副作用but together, instead of causing a side effect, 而是成为一种新型治疗手段they could be a new and novel treatment 治疗那些无药可医的病症for diseases that don’t have treatments 或是旧的治疗方法效果不明显的疾病or where the treatments are not effective. 如果我们今天纵观药物治疗If we think about drug treatment today, 所有的重大突破all the major breakthroughs — 治疗艾滋病 肺结核 抑郁症 或是糖尿病的for HIV, for tuberculosis, for depression, for diabetes — 都是几种药物的混合疗法it’s always a cocktail of drugs. 所以我们目前所做的And so the upside here, 也是TED大会今后探讨的话题and the subject for a different TED Talk on a different day, 就是我们怎样使用同样的数据资源is how can we use the same data sources 来寻找药物混合使用后的好处to find good effects of drugs in combination 这将会为我们提供新的疗法that will provide us new treatments, 和药物工作原理的新视角new insights into how drugs work 使我们可以更好地治疗我们的病人and enable us to take care of our patients even better? 十分感谢Thank you very much. [掌声](Applause)
  • 2021-08-24会飞的昆虫机器人It has wings, a “brain”,它有翅膀 大脑 and is the world’s first insect-sized drone是世界上第一架昆虫大小的 able to wirelessly take flight.可以无线飞行的无人机 It’s RoboFly,它就是RoboFly a member of an entirely new class of flying robots.全新飞行机器人中的一员 And its specialties aren’t limited to the sky:而它的独特之处在于 并不局限在空中 it can navigate obstacles on land and in the water, too.它还可以在陆地和水面上来去自如 The team behind this latest innovation这项最新创造 背后的研究团队 is from the Autonomous Insect Robotics Laboratory,来自华盛顿大学的自主昆虫机器人实验室 or AIR Lab, at the University of Washington.简称为AIR Lab Their founding goal was to build a new class of autonomous robots他们的研究目标是 研制一类新的 modeled entirely after insects.仿照昆虫的自主机器人 Using nature as a guide for human-built systems and structures这种从大自然中为人造系统与结构寻求灵感的技术 is a practice known as biomimicry.便是众所周知的仿生学 The idea is that we can solve our difficult design problems其思想是 通过观察大自然解决自身难题的方法 by looking at how nature solves them.来解决我们遇到的设计难题 In the case of tiny autonomous bots,具体到这种微型的自主机器人 this can include things like figuring out what wing shape is most aerodynamic,就包括 比如找出哪种形状的翅膀最符合空气动力学原理 or even how to mimic the mechanical performance of natural muscles.甚至是如何模仿天然肌肉的机械性能 Biomimicry can also help us design more sustainable energy storage systems, too,仿生学也能帮我们设计出更可持续的能源储存系统 another major hurdle towards achieving full automation.这是实现完全自动化的另一个主要障碍 That could mean creating machines that aren’t weighed down这可能意味着需要创造 with motors, batteries and cords…没有马达 电池和电线等负重 but are instead able to power themselves!但依然能为自己充电的机器! Because so far,因为直到现在 finding ways to power bots for long periods of time要找到能够给机器人长时间供电 without interfering with their mechanical performance但又不影响其机械性能的情况下的方法 has been hard.都是很困难的 But the AIR Lab team但是AIR Lab的团队 is close to cracking nature’s code.已经接近破解自然密码 They had their first big success in 2018,他们在2018年取得了第一次巨大成功 when their RoboFly became the first micro-bot to fly tether-free.所研制的RoboFly成了第一个能够进行无接触式飞行的微型飞行器 Simply by pointing a laser beam只要将激光束照射到 at a photovoltaic cell, or solar cell, embedded in its wings,嵌在翅膀上的光伏电池或太阳能电池上 RoboFly was able to fly all on its own.RoboFly就能够自己飞行 A built-in circuit allowed for 240 volts to execute the cell,内置电路能使电池输出电压达到240伏 which a controller then sent out in waves一个微控制器会发出波浪式的动作 to mimic the fluttering of a real insect’s wings.来模拟真实昆虫翅膀的拍打过程 A microprocessor brain was also added into the circuit board将微处理器“大脑”也被嵌在电路板上 so that it could help decide how and when to flap.来告诉机器人何时以及如何振翅 this’s all very cool,这些都很酷 but RoboFly was still a bit one-dimensional,但是RoboFly的移动仍然只是一维的(只能起飞和降落) so in 2020 its developers gave it a reboot.因此在2020年 它的开发者对其进行了重启 With a framework folded out of a single laminate sheet,由一张折叠的层压板组成的底盘 it can now be made without having to deal with tons of tiny parts.使得无需众多微型零件就可以制造机器人 It was also built not only to fly,它被制造成不仅仅可以飞 but to walk on the ground而且可以在地上走 and drift in the water.还能在水面上游的(无人机) This ability to navigate all types of terrainRoboFly具备的在各种地形之间游走 and switch between different types of locomotion和在不同运动模式间进行切换的能力 got the team one step closer to its goal of mimicking its biological counterpart.使得研究团队向实现仿生功能的目标又迈进了一步 Because who wouldn’t want to be as multi-talented as a fly?因为谁不想和苍蝇一样多才多艺呢 But the biohybrid breakthroughs don’t stop there.但混合生物的突破并不止于此 Researchers at Harvard University哈佛大学的研究人员 —including the creator of RoboFly—同RoboFly的研制者一起 chose another one of nature’s little helpers, the bee,选择了大自然中的另一个小帮手 蜜蜂 as their model for a breakthrough bot named Robobee.作为他们突破性的机器Robobee的模型 One of the smallest flying drones ever developed,作为有史以来最小的无人机之一 Robobee has undergone many exciting transformations自2009年团队启动项目以来 since the team launched their project in 2009.Robobee已经经历了许多令人兴奋的转变 To be clear,更确切的说 tiny robotic insects capable of flying around completely independently能够完全独立地飞行的微型机器人昆虫 isn’t just a pure practice in one-upping nature.并非纯粹为了超越自然的实践 These self-powered microbots could be hugely helpful in task-specific applications.这些自我供电的微型机器人在某些特定任务中将发挥巨大作用 Specifically ones that require accessing hard-to-reach places—特别是那些需要进入难以到达的地方的任务 like checking dangerous industrial equipment比如 危险工业设备的检查 and assisting in disaster recovery.和灾难恢复中的协助工作 There’s also the potential for them to act like little environmental recorders:它们也有成为小小环境监控员的潜力: sniffing out fires and detecting dangerous chemical leaks.嗅探火灾和监测危险化学品泄漏 The team behind RoboFly even wants to use it to studyRoboFly背后的研究团队甚至想要用它来研究 the behavior of the living insects that inspired its very own creation.激发昆虫自我创造力的行为 But we’re still a long way off但是要在任务执行中实现 from partnering with sophisticated autonomous microbots to accomplish tasks,和复杂的自主微型机器人的协作 我们仍有很长一段路要走 because developing them is still pretty tricky.因为开发新技术是很困难的 And while RoboFly is still an improvement on all other existing systems,尽管RoboFly对所有的现有系统来说是很大的改进 it still needs some finessing但要实现商业化 before going commercial.仍需要进行精细化的完善 But practice really does make perfect—然而 熟能生巧 and we can’t wait for the day我们迫不及待地想看到 when these tiny bots hit the sky, the ground,这些微型机器人飞天走地 or the water running!或是在水上游走的一天! While robotic insects are on their way,在机器人昆虫实现的过程中 real insects might be harder to come by.真正的昆虫可能愈加难寻 To learn more about how one simple task can help为了进一步了解一项简单的任务 stave off mass insect extinction,是如何帮助昆虫避免大规模灭绝的 check out this video here.请浏览这个视频 Let us know down in the comments请在评论中告诉我们 if there’s any other bug-related news you’d like us to cover.你想让我们报道的任何虫虫相关的新闻 Don’t forget to subscribe, and as always—别忘了订阅 还有一如既往的 thanks for watching.感谢观看
  • 2021-08-24什么是Mini-LED一直以来 迷你版的东西就深得人心 例如 iPod mini 迷你玛芬蛋糕 还有 迷你版的我 但 一种叫Mini-LED的新产品 将对我们看电视 使用电脑带来巨大影响 在深入讲解之前 你得知道Mini-LED与Micro-LED不一样 它们完全不同 Micro-LED也很酷 你可以在这了解更多 但Mini-LED可能是你在不久的将来 真正能买得起的 至于它为何重要 首先 它有助于我们理解其与其他类电视技术的关系 如果你去过大型的商店 见到过OLED与非OLED电视之间的巨大差别 这个差别主要源于OLED有非常高的对比度 因为OLED的每个像素点都能被完全关闭 以避免漏光现象产生 达到纯黑的显示效果 另一方面 非OLED电视需靠常亮的背光层组成图像 之后再由背光层前方的液晶层 有选择地阻隔来自背光层上不同区域的光 但是它无法阻隔所有的光 意味着黑色最终看起来像是灰色 为了改善对比度缺陷 液晶显示器局部调光技术应运而生 原理就是将屏幕上特定暗处或黑色图像区域的背光 选择性地调暗甚至完全关闭 局部调光技术在这就发挥作用了 但还算不上完美 你看 电视的背光层通常被划分为不同区域 这些区域可成组地被调暗 或关闭 为了更好地达到这个效果 需要很多的区域 也就意味着需要很多的LED 这导致了成本 热量 与电力消耗的增加 于是Mini-LED出现了 得益于近期技术的发展 LED不仅变得更加高效 也更小巧 这也正是Mini-LED显示的技术理念 Mini-LED的芯片尺寸通常小于1/10毫米 意味着可以在电视背光层放入更多的LED 可以对更小的区域进行精准调光 举个例子 过去几年的传统局部调光电视 可能拥有几十或上百个区域 而近期华硕和TCL发布的Mini-LED显示器 拥有近1000个独立的区域 这将有效地避免散焦现象的出现 就是有时能在局部调光见到的 黑色背景上发光区域周围出现的光晕 因为点亮发光物体的区域太大 以致于无法将它限制于它该有的位置上 当然 由于目前Mini-LED是新技术 它的价格也会更高 但相比OLED 它的价格还是更容易被接受 特别是在早期追随热潮消退之后 此外 由于Micro-LED的高成本和生产的复杂性 它离大众消费市场还有一段距离 因此 Mini-LED成为了过渡时期的最佳选择 现在 如果你不介意的话 我要去Tim Hortons啦 突然想来点迷你甜甜圈 好啦 其实我哪也不去 接下来介绍我们的赞助商 Displate是一种安装在磁铁上的金属印刷品 坚固耐用 不需要任何电动工具即可悬挂 拥有超过260000幅不同的作品 跨越多种风格 因其磁性的底座 你不需要在墙上打洞 且便于更换 他们有官方赛博朋克2077的金属海报 如果你喜欢的话 甚至可以买带我照片的哦 所以快去Displate上看看 对于所有的产品都有优惠 你可以使用折扣码 LTT 打85折 链接在视频下方的描述栏中 感谢大家的收看 喜不喜欢本次视频 可以去看看我们其他视频 并就您的建议发表评论 以期尽快实现 我甚至会完全采纳而不是像之前一样一言不发 但你可能都没发现 顺便一提 记得订阅我们
  • 2021-08-24什么是智能港口?-乔伊斯·布莱克,鹿特丹港鹿特丹港口 鹿特丹港务局 世界一流 智能港口 数字港口 推动港口互联战略 为什么港口要投资数字化解决方案? Port should invest in digital solutions港口应该加强数字化投资 because it’s where this industry is going因为这正是产业的发展方向 and the beauty of it is that we are a lagging industry.妙处是港口产业当前实际成为了落后产业 So we have fine examples of我们有好的例子来证明 what a digital change can mean for one industry.数字化变革对一个产业的意义 We’ve seen it in media我们在媒体上见到过 seen it in the office of the hotel branch and such.也在连锁酒店或办公室等场合见到过 So what does that mean for logistics industry?那么数字变革对物流产业来说意味着什么呢? The impacts could be huge.可能会产生巨大影响 So as a port you are a node within a supply chain港口是供应链中的一个节点 and I am firmly believe that而且我坚信 in order to be able to have the same function如果还想保持其原有的作用 you have now being the node in the physical infrastructure.港口要成为实体基础设施的节点 you have to be a node in the digital infrastructure as well.还要成为数字基础结构中的一个节点 So in order to be port authority所以要履行好港务局职能 and have the authority and the ability to execute that authority,拥有权力和行使权力的能力 you need to be digital.港口必须数字化 “智能港口”是怎样的呢? Bourassa smart port means that next to the physical port that we areBourassa智能港口意味着我们不仅是一个实体港口 and we will also be a digital port.也会是一个数字化的港口 So that would mean that any key wall we are building today这就意味着 我们今天建造的所有齿墙 all has a digital twin.都有一个数字副本 and the digital twin enables us to do predictive maitenance stupidy,它使我们能够做预测性维护保养 to do predictive berthing, to do all sorts of other stuff预测性停泊和各种其他事情 that you can’t do with just a physical key wall.仅有一个实体齿墙远远不能完成这些 So that’s one part of the digitization.所以这只是数字化的一个方面 and that means这意味着 that we can save money on our dredging, on our maintenance, on the patrol boats.我们可以在清淤 保养以及巡视船上节省资金 It’s a really an efficiency of the port authority as an organization itself.这对港务局组织本身来说 确实是一种高效的方法 And on the other hand另一方面 we see that in future我们看到 未来 we will have to receive autonomous sailing vessels.我们必须要接受自主帆船(的使用) So in order to receive them因此 为了接受自主帆船 we also have to be able to communicate with a vessel that doesn’t have people onboard我们也要能够与无人船进行通讯 so that incentivizes the need to go digital and be smart port.这样能够刺激人们对数字化和智能港口的需求 And the other part of our smart port concept is that我们智能港口的另一理念是 we see a disintermediation going on within our industry.我们看到行业内部正在发生非中介化 So the platforms are not huge平台并不大 but you can already book a container via Alibaba.但你已经可以在阿里巴巴上订购集装箱 You see that Duncon is doing a platform booking site,邓肯正在做一个平台预订网站 you see flexport, you see drvill, dervo, fogo port,你能看到flexport drvill dervo fogo you see trade lens and IBM, you see all sorts of platformtrade lens IBM等各种平台 popping up and those are there to stay纷纷涌现 参与竞争 they might not all survive他们也许不能全部生存下来 but there will be platforms in future但未来肯定会有平台 and in order for a port authority to communicate with that, with those platforms为使港务局能与这些平台进行交流 you need to be smart and digital port.智能的数字化港口不可或缺 鹿特丹港务局 公开邀请: 加入我们互联的港口网吧 鹿特丹港务局数字业务解决方案 +31〔0〕6 25 74 66 61
  • 2021-08-24喷墨打印机和激光打印机今天我们将会帮你购买新的打印机 首先决定 你想买喷墨打印机还是激光打印机 我们会尽快告诉你二者的关键区别 如果你不知道你的打印机的种类 因为是和电脑配套的或者其他原因 那么很可能是喷墨打印机 它的一个优点是非常便宜 因为电脑硬件是预装的 它们还有其他的优点 与同价位的激光式相比 喷墨式体积更小 更节能 并且喷墨式有多种用途 可以在不同的东西上打印 比如标签 打印过程中不产生热量 所以不会破坏背后的贴纸 由于现如今市面上绝大多数的喷墨打印机可以彩印 几乎任何一部喷墨打印机都可以打印出还不错的照片 激光打印机短期来看价格更贵 因为还要购买硬件 特别是彩色激光打印机 但是它们更加耐用可靠 所以使用寿命更长 不常用时 它们也不会像喷墨式那样堵塞喷嘴 激光打印机打印出来的文本非常清晰 如果你要打印简历 就用激光打印机 即使十年前的最便宜的激光打印机 也比目前最高端喷墨式打印出来的更清晰 最后 长期来看 墨粉更加省钱 因为大多数情况下 补充墨粉比墨水更便宜点 如果你需要打印很多文字 就买激光打印机 打出来的文字更清晰 也更专业 并且长期来看可以省钱 如果你要打印照片 并且频率大于一两个月一次 不然你的喷嘴就有堵塞的风险 便宜的喷墨打印机是个不错的选择 与入门级彩色激光打印机相比 入门级的喷墨打印机更加便宜 在不同的纸张上打印出来的结果也更好 感谢您收看本期《越快越好》节目 如果喜欢这个节目 欢迎订阅 欢迎分享给有需要的人 也可以转载到你的主页 现在就去分享吧 如果有任何你想看的视频 点击下面的链接发布 我们将对此进行统计 谢谢收看 下次再见
  • 2021-08-24世界上第一把“雨伞桥”节省了时间和金钱这座桥可以像雨伞那样展开 它是由维也纳工业大学(TU Wien) 的研究人员进行设计 这座可折叠桥梁是桥梁施工平衡提升理论的第一次实际应用 该设计技术节省了时间 金钱 并降低了施工过程对环境的影响 经过设计 在直立桥墩上架设空心梁 之后空心梁与直立桥墩在顶部接合并使用液压系统向下展开 直立桥梁的架设通常需要花费数月时间 但是维也纳工业大学的研究人员说这个新系统可以将工期缩短至三天 并且放下桥梁的过程将仅花费三小时 这是建筑学的一大成就
  • 2021-08-24为什么氢能汽车会成为特斯拉的头号劲敌If you ask anyone what the future of cars looks like,假如你问别人未来的车是什么样的 they’ll probably tell you it’s electric他们很可能会说是电动的 and that Tesla is at the forefront of the movement.毕竟特斯拉正走在这个变革的前沿 But what if I told you that there’s another option但如果我告诉你还有其他 that could be just as good or even better than battery-electric vehicles?与纯电动汽车相当甚至更好的选择呢? What if you could power cars with the most abundant resource in the universe如果你能用宇宙中最丰富的资源驱动汽车 with water as the only byproduct?而最终的副产物只有水呢? And they’re more likely to disrupt the auto industry相比像特斯拉这样的纯电动汽车 than battery-powered cars, like Teslas.它们更有可能颠覆整个汽车产业 Why hydrogen cars will be Tesla’s biggest threat为什么氢能汽车会成为特斯拉的头号劲敌 Hydrogen fuel cells have been a technology of great promise氢燃料电池是一项前景广阔的技术 as well as great skepticism.但也受到了许多质疑 Elon Musk himself often mocks hydrogen fuel cell technology,伊隆·马斯克经常嘲笑氢燃料电池技术 going so far as to call them “fool cells”甚至称它们是“傻瓜电池” and “mind-bogglingly stupid.”“愚蠢至极” But major automakers still see promise.但许多汽车制造商仍看到了希望 First, let’s define the terms.首先 我们定义一下术语 Battery electric vehicles, or BEVs,纯电动汽车 或者说BEV are the electric vehicles that most of us are familiar with today, like Teslas.是指如今广为熟知的电动汽车 例如特斯拉 They use a battery to store electricity and power the electric motor.它们使用电池储存电能 从而驱动电动机 A hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle, or FCEV,氢燃料电池汽车 或者说FCEV like Toyota’s Mirai,比如丰田的Mirai combines hydrogen with oxygen to produce electricity,它通过氢氧的结合来产生电能 which then powers the electric motor that drives the car.然后驱动电动机 带动汽车前行 Now, when it comes to why people don’t buy battery-electric vehicles like Teslas,说到人们为什么不买像特斯拉一样的纯电动汽车 there are three main reasons:主要有三个原因 They take too long to recharge,它们充电太久了 they have a limited range before they need to be recharged,充一次电的情况下 它们的续航能力有限 and they cost a lot more than your comparable gas-powered car.相比于同性能的汽油车 它们的价格更贵 So, how do hydrogen cars stack up in these areas?那么氢能汽车如何在这些方面竞争呢 When it comes to recharging,充能方面 hydrogen cars have battery-electrics beat.氢能汽车有着绝对优势 At a supercharging station,在超级充电站 a Tesla can charge anywhere from 30% to 50% in 15 minutes,一辆特斯拉能在15分钟内充30-50%的电 but you’ll be at the charging station for over an hour for a full charge.但要充满的话就得在充电站呆1个多小时 Fuel-cell vehicles don’t require charging at all.燃料电池汽车根本不需要充电 The hydrogen tank is refilled at a hydrogen station in less than five minutes,在加氢站 氢气罐5分钟之内就能加满 just like your typical gas station today.就像现在普通的加油站 That’s because FCEVs don’t store electricity like a battery;这是因为氢燃料电池汽车不像电池一样储存电能 they create it on demand to power the motor.它们按需产能来驱动发动机 When it comes to range,续航方面 hydrogen-powered cars seem to come out on top again.氢能汽车似乎也是最好的 Between the three fuel-cell vehicles on the road today,已经上路的三种燃料电池汽车 they have a range of 312, 360, and 380 miles.续航里程分别为310 360 380英里 Most electric vehicles have a range under 250 miles.大多数电动汽车的续航里程都低于250英里 While some Tesla models offer a range而特斯拉有些车型能达到 of more than 300 miles,300多英里的续航里程 they often cost more than the average car buyer can afford.但其价格往往高于一般人的预算 Range and refueling times are so important续航能力和充能时间非常重要 that 78% of automotive executives believe78%的汽车业高管相信 fuel-cell vehicles will be the breakthrough for electric mobility.燃料电池汽车将成为电动汽车产业的先锋 But that’s not to say fuel-cell vehicles don’t have challenges of their own.但这并不是说燃料电池汽车没有缺陷 FCEVs need more competitive pricing.氢燃料电池汽车的价格需要更具竞争力 The suggested retail price for the fuel-cell vehicles available today is around $60,000,现在燃料电池汽车的建议零售价大概是60000美元 which is about $20,000 more than an entry-level BEV.比入门级的纯电动汽车贵了大约20000美元 That’s because production size of these vehicles is incredibly low.因为这些汽车的生产规模非常小 With only a few thousand or few hundred being made every year,每年只能生产几千甚至几百辆车 it’s nearly impossible for prices to be competitive.要使价格更具竞争力几乎不可能 But that could soon be changing.但这个事实即将改变 Automakers are looking to increase the production of their FCEVs.汽车厂商正在计划扩大氢燃料电池汽车的生产规模 Toyota in particular has increased its production capabilities tenfold特别是丰田 为了最终能够降低Mirai的价格 to eventually bring down the cost of its Mirai.他们已经将生产规模扩大了10倍 The real challenge for hydrogen fuel cells is the lack of infrastructure.氢燃料电池汽车面临的真正挑战是配套设施的缺乏 In the US, the majority of hydrogen stations are in California,在美国 大多数加氢站都位于加利福尼亚 with just over 40 available to fuel-cell owners.且只有40多座可供氢能汽车车主使用 For FCEVs to become the breakthrough that automotive executives believe in,为了让氢燃料电池汽车成为汽车高管们希望的先锋 a vast network for hydrogen stations is vital.建立一个庞大的加氢站网络至关重要 And automakers are slowly working to make it happen.汽车厂商正逐步努力实现这个目标 Jackie Birdsall: We do get to work together with the other automakers,我们确实在和其他汽车厂商合作 as well as with, you know, here in California,以及和加利福尼亚这儿的 the state of California and the industrial gas suppliers,加利福尼亚政府 工业燃气供应商 or whomever the energy provider is,还有其他能源供应商合作 to be able to site hydrogen stations把加氢站建在 where it makes the most sense for all of the automakers’ vehicles.对所有氢能汽车厂商都合理的位置上 And so that’s to try to make sure that any investment that we make is best leveraged这也是为了确保我们所做的投资能够 by all of the consumers from all of the automakers that currently offer fuel-cell vehicles.被所有燃料电池汽车厂商的消费者充分利用 Narrator: If and when fuel-cell vehicles scale,如果当燃料电池汽车得到普及 Tesla will have a tough challenge on their hands.特斯拉将会面临艰难的挑战 They’ll have to increase range他们必须要提高续航能力 while simultaneously decreasing recharging time and price.同时减少充电时间并降低价格 But Teslas, and any battery-electric vehicles, are limited但是由于收益递减定律 because of the law of diminishing returns.特斯拉和其他电动汽车很难做到这一点 Increasing the range requires a larger battery.增加续航里程需要更大容量的电池 A larger battery will add more weight to the car.而更大的电池会增加汽车的重量 After a certain point,超过某一特定值时 the added weight no longer yields additional range.增加的重量将不再提高续航能力 With FCEVs, it’s just a numbers game.但对氢能汽车来说 只是一场数字游戏 More hydrogen stations equal more cars,加氢站的增加意味着会有更多的汽车 and more cars equal more affordable fuel-cell vehicles.汽车的增加则带动燃料汽车价格的降低 Tesla has a lock on the zero-emissions market in America,特斯拉完全控制着美国的零排放市场 controlling a whopping 60% of the EV market.占据美国电动汽车市场的60% But that’s still only 2% of the entire US car market.但也只是占了美国整个汽车市场的2% And those numbers decrease when we talk about the global car market.放到全球汽车市场来说 占比将会更低 The only thing really holding FCEVs back is infrastructure,唯一阻碍氢燃料电池汽车普及的是配套设施 and as hydrogen stations become more abundant,当加氢站大量建成时 Tesla could lose the majority of the zero-emissions market.特斯拉将因为一项“愚蠢至极”的技术 For a technology that’s “mind-bogglingly stupid,”失去零排放市场的主导地位 it has serious potential to become a real competition氢能汽车很有可能成为一个棘手的竞争对手 for the very same customers that Tesla’s aiming for.抢夺特斯拉的目标客户 So, Elon might want to take notice.因此 伊隆可要注意了
  • 2021-08-24实验室新伙伴:可移动的机器人化学家VOICE OVER: Meet the robot chemist – a mobile autonomous worker来认识机器人化学家:一位可移动的自主工作者 that has been designed to offer a helping hand around the lab.旨在成为实验室的好帮手 We started the project around three years ago,约三年前 我们开始了这个项目 and we’d never worked with mobile robots before.之前我们没有在工作中用过可移动机器人 We’ve worked with automation,我们用过自动机器 but the first few months were spent但在这个项目最初几个月 really just learning how to drive the thing around the lab reliably.我们都在研究如何让机器人在实验室可靠地运转 What we’ve done, unusually, is to use a mobile system.这个项目的特殊之处在于 使用一个可移动系统 That has advantages because you can really drop it into an existing lab and,它的优势是你能直接把它放进现有的实验室 without much modification, use equipment which is already there.不用过多调整 它就能使用已有的设备 To some extent, if a human can use the equipment,某种程度上说 如果人会使用这些设备 the robot can use the equipment.机器人也会 VOICE OVER: This robot helper has been designed by chemists at the University of Liverpool这位机器人助手由利物浦大学的化学家设计 to help them in their research into developing photocatalysts,用来协助光催化剂的研究 which are materials that help produce hydrogen from water using light.光催化剂能在光照下促使氢气从水中分解 The robot communicates with a software control system wirelessly.机器人与软件控制系统无线连接 It needs to be wireless because it’s moving around a large space.机器人要大范围移动 所以必须无线连接 The robot weighs out the solid catalyst.它为固体催化剂称重 It dispenses the liquids.配制溶液 It shines the light onto the samples.为样本提供光照 It measures the output, which is hydrogen,测量产出 也就是氢气量 and based on this output, the hydrogen emission from the experiment,并根据产出 也就是实验中的氢气产量 it then makes a decision about what to do next.决定下一步做什么 VOICE OVER: Just like a human chemist,和人类化学家一样 this robot needs to be able to adapt its workflow机器人也要能根据实验结果 based on the outcome of its experiments,调整工作流程 and this requires a computational solution.而这一功能要靠计算解决方案 If you work out the number of possible combinations of the components in the experiment,如果你计算出实验中各成分可能的组合数量 it’s something like 98 million,差不多9800万种可能 so the robot uses an optimisation algorithm using a method called Bayesian optimisation机器人就能用优化算法 即贝叶斯优化 to navigate that chemical space.来探索化学空间 VOICE OVER: To help it work more like a human chemist, 为了让机器人工作起来更像人类化学家 this optimisation algorithm is a type of AI that gives the robot decision-making capabilities.这种优化算法是一种赋予机器人决策力的人工智能 But unlike its human counterpart, the robot can run continuously,但与人类同事不一样的是 它能持续工作 so there’s a balance to be struck between giving the robot too much freedom and restricting it.所以要在给它自由和约束它之间找到平衡 If you explore too much then you end up doing 98 million experiments如果它探索过多 做上9800万次实验 and that’s just not possible,这肯定不现实 but if you exploit too much, if you optimise too greedily or too quickly,但如果过多利用算法 优化得太多太快 you don’t necessarily find the best solution.不一定能找到最好的组合方式 VOICE OVER: During these experiments,在实验过程中 the robot relies on its articulating arm to interact with lab equipment,机器人依靠关节臂操作设备 and at the end of this is a special gripper关节臂末端是特殊的钳子 that allows the robot to pick things up and operate machinery.让它能抓握东西 操作机器 To navigate the lab and to avoid misplaced stools为了在实验室移动 并避开乱放的凳子 or avoid collisions with its human coworkers,不碰撞到其他人类同事 this robot uses LiDAR, which is a bit like radar机器人使用LiDAR系统 它类似雷达 but uses lasers instead to map its 3D environment.但用激光绘制3D环境 On top of its laser scanning system,除了激光扫描系统 there’s a force feedback calibration,它还有力反馈校准装置 and what that is is the robot taps a cube which is located in a fixed space那就是 机器人轻触固定区域的一个立方体 and that then provides a six-position reference point.然后这个装置就会提供六个面位置的参照点 VOICE OVER: The robot is programmed with the coordinates of equipment and instruments that it needs to use,机器人要用的设备和配套的使用方法都被编入程序 and each of these stations is marked with their own cubes.每个工作台都被特定的立方体标记过位置 This gets the robot closer这让机器人拥有 to having the sort of positioning and control that a human would have with their hands,近似人类双手的定位和控制能力 which is essential when interacting with delicate glassware.这种能力在接触精密玻璃器皿时非常重要 It doesn’t just move around according to a program.机器人不只是根据程序设定移动 It navigates and makes its choice to do the most optimal schedule.它能选择最佳方案并据此移动 Now, you could, in principle, do that with a human,原则上来说 人也可以这样做 but it’s a pretty uncomfortable way for most people to work,但对大多数人来说 to be driven by an algorithm.按照算法工作会不太自在 Bear in mind, the robot doesn’t invent the experiment, doesn’t design the experiment.要知道 机器人不提出 也不设计实验方案 It doesn’t come up with the hypotheses.它也不提出假设 So, the robot is a tool to search the space,它只是探寻化学空间的工具 we still need people to think of the problems to work on.我们仍需人思考研究问题 So, I don’t see it as replacing jobs as this stage.所以我不认为眼下机器人取代了人的工作 I see it as augmenting people’s abilities to do research.我把它看作增强人类研究能力的一种工具 VOICE OVER: And amidst the global pandemic, the robot has found compelling new potential在全球疫情要求保持社交距离的时期 in maintaining lab work during periods of social distancing.机器人在维持实验室运作方面展现出惊人的新潜能 We’ve now received a lot of interest on the technology in terms of how might如何在保持一定社交距离下重启实验室 you restart laboratories while still operating a certain level of social distancing.很多人对这种技术表现出兴趣 来询问我们 If you have a technology where you can load the system up and then takes three hours如果有这种技术 你就可以 花三小时设置好系统 and then it works for eight days or two weeks by itself 然后它就能自主工作八天或两周 then you can see possibilities there.那么重启实验室就有了可能 So, yeah, I’d be delighted if we can find some way to contribute to that.如果能找到某种方式促进该技术的运用 我会很高兴
  • 2021-08-242050年的通勤方式《金融时报》 2050年我们将如何生活 到2050年 世界将变得城市化 世界上近70%的人口将居住在城市里 其中许多大型城市人口将超过一千万 在特大城市中出行将是一个巨大的挑战 伦敦市中心的平均交通速度已下降到 每小时约7英里 速度大约与 150年前的马车时代相同 所幸市规划局正努力于解决这一问题 自动驾驶汽车也将发挥作用 根据预测 到2040年 超过3000万辆无人驾驶车辆将投入使用 事实上 无人驾驶车辆早已在特定区域内行驶 比如 机场巴士 到2050年 城市道路很可能随处可见 一召即来的机器出租车 公共交通也将高度个性化 人们不用再查看公交时刻表 取而代之的 通过网络连通的交通工具将动态地 根据乘客需要行驶到相应的地方 接下来 耗时的最后1英里或许将由两轮车代替 因此电动滑板车和自行车的出行方案将激增 出于安全考虑 这些两轮车在许多地方仍禁止上路 但城市可以修建专用车道供其通行 在中国东南部的厦门已经有一条8公里的高架自行车道 世界各地的学者们正在设计更长的 有遮盖的通道来保护路上的骑行者 2050年城市交通的另一个特点 可能是多层立体化 像Uber和Lilium Jet之类的公司正计划 推出一系列无人机的士和电动喷气式飞机 它们能从城市各处着陆平台垂直起飞 地下系统可能包括超回路列车 带有沿着真空密封管高速猛冲直下的穿梭舱 这都意味着地面可能会有更多空间 许多城市已将一些中心街道改造成步行区 对很多人来说 2050年的城市交通可能 回归到最远古的形式
  • 2021-08-24Windows开始菜单是怎么发明出来的?你可能会好奇 这两家伙和Windows有什么关系 你正在收看的是《简述科技》第四集 那么 答案马上揭晓 那是在1992年 当时的Windows版本是3.1 此时用户的体验并不是很好 微软对此自然也不满意 所以公司成立了一个专家小组 他们有两个重要任务 找出当前用户界面中的不足 并提出一个更好的方案 小组的组长是丹尼尔·奥兰先生 一位有着独特研究背景的行为心理学家 在加入哈佛后 奥兰开展了一个关于用户界面设计的项目 其中他设计了一个装置 用来教谢尔曼和奥斯汀一些英文单词 于是微软的那些家伙就想 如果他能教黑猩猩说话 他当然也能教用户如何使用计算机 当然 奥斯汀和谢尔曼一个字都不会说 但是这个项目让人们更好地理解了 如何设计一个计算机程序 打个比方说 让黑猩猩都会用 在微软工作时 奥兰和他的小组会给研究对象一些简单的任务 然后观察他们是如何执行的 很快 这些年轻的行为心理学家感到非常沮丧 不只是因为人们常常对它的用户界面感到困惑 也是因为同事们的反应 他们认为问题出在用户身上 而不是操作系统 换句话说 用户不知道从哪着手 而观察他们的程序员认为他们是白痴 另一方面 奥兰知道 如果用户弄不清楚基本的引导 那么问题明显是出在用户界面上 这时他提出了一个简单而巧妙的解决方案 他设计了一个简单的按钮 它包含所有的功能 最初这个按钮叫做“系统” 放在屏幕的上方 由于这个名字听着太专业 测试对象往往不会去按 所以他们改成了“开始” 事实证明是一个很聪明的改动 但用户不知道从哪着手 也常常搞不清有多少程序已经在后台运行 当时Windows的确有任务管理器 来查看后台程序 但对一般用户来说 就算他们知道有这个功能 也不知道去哪里找 奥兰想了一个办法来解决 在屏幕上方加一根长条 对每个正在运行的程序创建一个标签 但因为当时大多显示器的分辨率都很低 这些标签块会迅速占用过多空间 所以将它们缩小并重新设计 最终变成了现在我们熟知的Windows任务栏 在最终产品中 “开始”按钮和任务栏一起被移到了底部 其余的都成了历史 说完了这些 如果你还想知道奥斯汀和谢尔曼怎么样了 额 这是《简述科技》 我们才没时间管…… 猩猩的事 我知道 开玩笑的 感谢观看 一如既往 保持强大
  • 2021-08-24在植物中种植金属可能是可持续技术的未来Some plants are totally metal… 有一些植物完全就是金属的 and I’m not just talking about venus fly traps.我可不仅仅是在说金属捕蝇草 There are plants that literally ooze metal!有些植物会渗出含有金属物质的汁液 And we’re farming them!而且 我们正在种植他们! But first, we gotta back it up a little bit.首先 我们先学点背景知识 In the ground beneath our feet, there can be all kinds of different metals.我们脚下的土地里 存在各种不同的金属物质 Not in the form you and I might picture them, like in a can or in your car,不是我们想像的如罐头或汽车上那种形态的金属 but in a much more unrefined, elemental form.而是以未经提炼的元素形式存在 And it turns out, some plants have evolved to absorb lots of metal结果 一些植物经过进化后可通过根茎 from these soils, through their roots.从土壤中吸收许多金属 These helpful superstars are called hyperaccumulators,这些有益的超级明星被称为超积累植物 and there are lots of different kinds.并且种类繁多 After sucking up all that “tasty metal”, hyperaccumulating plants do just that吸收掉那些“美味的”金属后 超积累植物 they accumulate that metal in their bodies.就会在体内积累这些金属 If you can call them that. Do plants have bodies?如果你能这么叫的话 植物有身体吗? Whatever, you get the point.无所谓了 你懂的 Now the metal is inside them,现在金属进入了植物内部 it’s literally running through their vascular structures in their sap,金属通过它们的维束管 进入汁液 or even their shoots, seeds, and leaves.甚至进入枝条 种子和叶片中 So now, we can extract it from the plant,所以 我们通过对植物进行提取 which has so handily brought it all together for us.可以方便的把金属聚集到一起 A group of researchers working on a small trial farm一组研究者在加里曼丹岛的马来西亚侧 on the Malaysian side of the island of Borneo is already trying this开辟了小型实验田 利用积累镍的植物 with a plant that accumulates nickel.进行植物金属提取实验 Every six to twelve months or so, the farmer can harvest about每6到12个月左右 农民可以收获 this length of metal-filled plant tissue,约这么长的金属富集植物组织 and through purification, then have all this metal, no mining required.经过提纯 不需采矿便可获得所有金属 Nickel in particular is an essential component of stainless steel,镍是组成不锈钢的主要成分 like what you might see in your kitchen,比如你的不锈钢厨房用品 and we’re seeing increasing demand for both it and its derivatives我们对镍及其衍生产品的需求越来越多 for things like electric car batteries and even your cell phone.比如制作电动汽车电池甚至是你的手机 But mining it – just like mining other heavy metals但开采镍就像开采其他重金属 and rare earth elements – is extremely destructive.以及稀有金属一样 有极强破坏性 Not only because you’re literally cutting open the earth,不仅是因为要对土地进行大规模挖掘 but because you’re leaving behind some really intense chemical pollution as you refine it, too.而且在提炼过程中会产生严重的化学污染 The process we humans have traditionally used to extract the metal人们从生矿石中提取金属的传统过程 from its raw form in the ground is called “smelting,”被称为“熔炼” and it involves lots of energy-intensive heating and melting,包括许多能源密集型加热和融化 plus purifying chemicals and lots of waste products.以及精炼用的化学品和大量废物 So, as our world’s boundless appetite for things所以随着我们的世界对金属物质 like cobalt, zinc, and other heavy metals continues to grow,比如钴 锌以及其他重金属的需求不断上升 we’re seeing a serious environmental impact.我们看到了严重的环境影响 That comes in the form of water, soil and air pollution表现为水 土壤和空气污染 not only from smelting’s byproducts, but also from the metal itself,这些污染 不仅源自熔炼副产物 而且源自金属本身 which can be really poisonous when inhaled or ingested.当我们吸入或摄入时 这些金属也会对人体产生毒性 So, being able to farm these metals, instead?所以 如果可以用“种植”金属代替开采 Yes, please.好的 来吧! The plants are basically natural, solar-powered smelters植物基本上就是天然的太阳能冶金厂 they do the whole thing for us in a totally self-contained way.它以完全自足的方式为我们完成了所有工作 And this concept is called “bioharvesting,”这个概念被称作“生物收获” or more specifically, “phytomining.”更具体来说是“植物冶金” Which basically means we’re farming metal,基本上意味着我们在种植金属 which just sounds way too cool for this reality.这听起来真是太酷了 But that’s not all.但这还不是全部 Because remember that pollution I was just talking about?还记得我刚才说的污染问题吗? In addition to being a sustainable source of heavy metals超积累植物除了能够成为重金属 and maybe eventually even rare earth elements,甚至是稀土元素的可持续来源 this hyperaccumulators can also be used to clean up heavy metal pollution.还可以用作清理重金属污染 Another research group has been studying copper- and zinc- accumulating plants.另一个研究小组研究了铜和锌超积累植物 They’ve shown that plants – specifically Brassica juncea, a kind of mustard plant他们表示植物 尤其是一种芥子植物-芥菜 and Sedum alfredii, a common Asian herb,以及一种常见的亚洲草药-东南景天 could uptake heavy metals from a polluted copper-zinc mine.能够从受污染的铜锌矿中吸收重金属 This helped clean up the site, a process called phytoremediation.这个过程叫做植物修复 帮助净化了这片区域 And then the team was able to process those plant tissues然后这个团队可以加工这些植物组织 and use the bio-accumulated metal随后用生物积累所得到的金属 to make carbon nanotubes and carbon zinc-oxide nanoparticles,制作碳纳米管和碳/氧化锌纳米颗粒 both of which can be used to advance all kinds of exciting electronics它们俩可用来发展令人振奋的电子工业 and energy technologies.以及能源技术 So, not only did you clean up the pollution,所以 你不仅能够清除污染 but you were then able to still use that material还能够利用那些污染材料 instead of having to find a way of safely disposing of it,而不是想方设法安全的处理它们 and you made something really useful out of it.甚至利用它们做出了一些有用的东西 It kinda feels like we could really be on our way各位 貌似我们已经准备好 to getting this recycling thing down, you guys.圆满完成这项回收利用工作了 Exciting as it is, all of this is still in its beginning stages.虽然令人兴奋 但是这些技术仍处于起步阶段 Scientists are working hard on optimizing growing techniques and understanding科学家为了使植物冶金能够与已有方法竞争 ideal growth and accumulation conditions to make this phytomining thing正在努力研究超积累植物最佳种植技术 a really strong competitor to the existing methods.并了解它们理想的生长和金属积累条件 They even say with further development of the science,他们甚至说 随着科学的发展 they think this process could expand all over the globe这项技术可以在全球扩展进行 really changing what we mean when we say a “grassroots solution.”真正将“草根方法”发扬光大 One last fun fact:一个有趣的事实: scientists think that it may have been helpful for hyperaccumulators科学家认为 进化出在组织中储存金属的能力 to evolve the ability to store these metals in their tissues对于超积累植物是有利的 so they would be toxic to predators.这样 它们可以对捕食者产生毒性 Pretty cool.真是太酷了 If you want more surprising melding of nature and tech如果你想了解更多自然与技术的精妙融合 check out my other video on graphene-enhanced mushrooms over here.可以看我关于石墨烯仿生蘑菇发电的视频 And keep coming back to Seeker for all of your news on botanical advancements.记得时常回《探索新闻台》收看植物学新进展 As always, thanks so much for watching, and I’ll see you next time!感谢收看 我们下次见!
  • 2021-08-24谷歌地图黑客这种艺术形式挑战了谷歌地图的力量 未来之眼 艺术家Simon Weckert创作 “谷歌地图黑客”制造了交通堵塞 他在街上推着一手推车运行着谷歌地图的手机 来展示虚拟地图对社会的影响力 道路从绿变红 堵塞转移到了其他道路 这证明虚拟地图影响现实空间非常简单 谷歌地图虽然是为了帮助司机 但它也能控制我们感知世界的方式

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